COMMENT: HI MA,
Well, I know you’ve written about Germany many times as the next big country in Euro to hit the skids…I kept with Italy for a long period BUT now it is neck and neck…
What changed my mind? Independent of your writings…. It is shipping…there are a significant amount of German banks in shipping finance and that sector is coming unglued fast and there is no reversal in sight… and with the car sector in Germany as you have noted Germany is coming up behind Italy rather fast IMHO….
IT is a 2 horse race in my book… Socrates already knows which country is going to hit skids first…
YEP, Turkey has a very bad smell under it… Some European banks exposure to Turkey is going to result in them getting their arses kicked. Just add in ECB stupid policy to help the problem… How that ex G Sachs person was named ECB head and there isn’t/hasn’t been a revolve from European banks towards HIM I’LL NEVER KNOW… THEY are asleep at the wheel over there in Euroland MA (and not just in Europe I might add.. try Australia also), Europeans sending billions to US of A only goes to show some investors know the game is up in Europe ..and now lies eco ruins and perhaps WAR.
Cheers and have a Happy Easter,
Thanks for everything..what a world we live in….
REPLY: As car sales drop sharply, shipping is also declining. The Baltic Dry Index appears to be in a position to rally with the turn in the ECM come 2020.