Obama Administration Bribed by Russians?

Another example of how corrupt it is in Washington, prior to the Obama Administration, including Hillary, approved the Russian purchase of American uranium resources, it turns out that the FBI has gathered evidence confirming that there was bribery taking place for Russia to get the deal. Of course, Loretta Lynch never investigates Democrats when her own Administration is the corrupt one behind the curtain.

Obama administration approved the deal in 2010 giving Moscow control of a much of the American uranium sources. It turns out that the FBI had gathered significant evidence that Russian nuclear industry officials were engaged in bribery, kickbacks, extortion and money laundering to get the deal in the USA. They had a confidential witness working inside the Russian nuclear industry to gather extensive financial records, make secret recordings and intercept emails from 2009 onward.that showed Moscow had compromised an American uranium trucking firm with bribes and kickbacks in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, FBI and court documents show.

This has been reported in The Hill, which is widely read on Capitol Hill. The quest now becomes – why has this not been investigated? And people don’t seem to get upset how failed lawyers, run for Congress who are average or broke and leave office rolling in the money. It’s not a swamp that has to be drained – its an ocean!

 

Global Cooling is Killing Penguins – Not Global Warming

Contrary to Global Warming, the reality of what is going on is serious and these fakes scientists have distorted the cyclical nature of our world for personal gain that they are leading us down a path of serious destruction. The ice has expanded so much that there is a major catastrophe in the penguin community. All but two Adelie penguin chicks have starved to death in their east Antarctic colony. Nature scientists are calling this breeding season as “catastrophic” because the unusually high amounts of ice late in the season, has made adults penguins travel further for food.

It is the second bad season in five years after no chicks survived in 2015 also because of the expansion in ice. We are headed into a serious decline in temperature and that is when civilization declines significantly. The worst appears to be hitting after 2032. This is really no joke.

Fear of Heights – Vertical Markets

The rally in the US share market has been a VERTICAL MARKET as our computer has been warning would unfold. A VERTICAL MARKET is one that takes off yet leaves the vast majority behind because they just cannot believe the rally. I have been warning that this is the most hated bull market in history. The entire bull run during the 1920s was 97 months and we passed that mark last April.

 

They wrote the book on When Genius Failed over the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) debacle. People who create models make one fatal mistake – they are cheap when it comes to data. They even won the Nobel Prize for the model that blew up in the LTCM debacle. Why did genius fail? Because their model was based on data only back to 1971 when the floating exchange rate system began.

Now we have the ECB vice-president Vitor Constancio warning of the dangers of new price bubbles on the markets. Nobody seems to understand this market and they never will without a database that stretches back at least a few hundred years. You simply have to see how the market reacts under all conditions, Here t6he Dow Jones Industrial Index we extended back to 1790. The computer bought the low in 2009 and has been adding to long-term positions.

Constancio is totally clueless. He has referred the task of investigating this bubble to the regulatory authorities, which he says are known specialists in this area. Of course, if they really knew what was going on they would tell him. They also have no actual trading experience so how are they going to judge what is taking place based upon personal opinion?

The ECB’s caution has its reason becaue they too fear what is going to happen when they exit from the bond program if they even can. The program has transformed from economic stimulus to a plain outright program to reduce the financing interest rates of the over-indebted Euro-States keeping them on life-support. If this support by the ECB is eliminated, the outbreak of a new debt crisis in Europe could send interest rates soaring and a collapse in confidence in government. Therein lies the crisis. Once capital figures out that it is the governments who are in trouble, it becomes Mario bar the door!

After the WEC, we will make available for $750 – How to Trade a Vertical Market

Market Talk- October 18th, 2017

Even though we saw yet another strong day for US markets, for Asia it was more steady as she goes rather than running away with itself. With the Chinese Party conference just underway, many will be looking for headlines to set the next stage of the markets. Currency will set the agenda with stocks following close behind. The Yen had a weak day (-0.7%) pushing the 113 figure change due both to Japanese uncertainty but also to US Dollar strength. The Nikkei closed higher but at +0.15% was not really much to write home about, exporters lead the trend. Shanghai performed slightly better (+0.3%) with the Hang Seng lagging a little behind (+0.5%), but both reflective of the optimism many expect from the conference. With China looking to fill the void the US is about to leave will make headlines interesting reading.

Europe followed sentiment and the strong US market trend. Yet again we saw fresh highs helping European markets but the lead was always US equities. We saw DAX, CAC and FTES all finish around +0.4% firmer on the day. Things are still not clear in Spain with Catalonia after they reputed to have refused to walk from its independence claim. The uncertainty continues within the BREXIT negotiations also, with rumours all around they both sides are rejecting each others compromises. Still lots to watch for the rest of the week with data and headlines expected from all four corners of the globe. Although equities markets were quiet it is worth keeping an eye on the peripheral markets. If and when the ECB take a less commanding role, peripheral spreads will gap wider until real demand is seen.

Another day another record for the DOW. Closing up 160 points the DOW easily breaks away from the 23k level with a 23,157. Sentiment is being helped after the House passed a $4.1trln Tax Reform which will go to the Senate vote next week. The Russell was the only other index that performed as well as the DOW, whilst the NASDAQ and S+P managed to progress just marginally. We are finally starting to see the equity performance hit 30yr treasuries with 10/30’s finally steepening in the sell-off.

2’s closed 1.56% (+1bp), 10’s at 2.34% (+4bp), 30’s 2.86% (+6bp), Bunds 0.39% (+2bp), France 0.80% (+2bp), Italy 2.03% (+4bp), Greece 5.43% (+6bp), Turkey 11.09% (+7bp), Portugal 2.32% (+4bp), Spain 1.60% (+7bp), UK Gilts 1.31% (+4BP).

Cryptocurrencies & the Scam

There is a serious new fraud centering around Cryptocurrencies. There have been some trading platforms set up that are suddenly changing the rules in mid-game. People who have tried to sell things like Monaco Card etc. on these platforms have discovered that their accounts are frozen because they do not have the money to pay people. The excuse is they need to now suddenly PROVE who they are to liquidate anything. The requirements are onerous and simply a DELAY tactic. These platforms maybe a FRAUD and should be reported to the SEC.

There was a company IGBE (International Gold Bullion Exchange) back in the early 1980s. They were offering selling gold bullion coins at the spot, which was below cost, but the catch was 90-day deferred delivery. They were actually not booking the gold and expected it to continue to decline. When gold rallied, they were not covered and could not deliver. They were taken off to jail and investors lost I believe $100 million+.

Cryptocurrencies are no different from any other investment product. It is a misrepresentation that they offer an alternative to the dollar. No matter how much money one made on Bitcoin, they still have to sell it to realize that profit and how are they measuring that profit? In dollars of course.

Beware of the fraud in these trading platforms that are now suddenly freezing people’s accounts claiming security to prevent people from selling particularly the smaller new cryptocurrencies.

ECB Worried Who Will Buy Government Debt if they Stop?

Mario Dragi Naples 10-3-2014

 

According to RELIABLE sources behind the curtain, the crisis in Spain led to a significant amount of selling Spanish debt to the European Central Bank (ECB) which has meanwhile swelled to 2.3 trillion Euro. There are problems now emerging in Italy and the appetite for government debt at low rates is not as strong as being portrayed. The ECB’s expansive economic stimulus package of buying government debt is NOT going to be stopped so easily. At the next ECB meeting on October 26th, the bond-buying program is most likely going to continue and at best they might claim to extend the bond purchase program with a modest reduction in volume. The ECB has not commented on this position, but there are rising concerns that member states will be unable to fund their spending without the ECB or a dramatic rise in interest rates demanded from the private sector.

The crisis building is all about how will the governments keep funding their debts?

Sex with Robots? 49% of Men say they would Give it a Try – Women 9%

Well, there seems to be a new sex revolution emerging – sex with robots with Artifical Intelligence. It may seem completely nuts, but something is going on. A friend of mine went to a baseball game and he sat next to two young girls 21 and 23. They were curious about the good-old days and told him they had never been on an official date. They explained that boys just called and said we are all going to meet at xyz, so come along. Have the younger generation just so completely changed that relationships are gradually fading away?

When you dig a little deeper, you find that the youth are not only living with their parents into their 30s, but they are not buying into the American Dream of owning your own home. Rents are cheaper. With some, I have spoken to and they say how their parents worked hard, put everything into the home, watched taxes soar and property values crash after 2007. They seem to be taking a different path in life altogether.

About half of American adults believe having sex with robots will become common in the next 50 years. About 49% of adult mails are ready to give it a try now but only 9% of women. The first time this sort of thing was portrayed in a moved was back in 1990. The girlfriend was a hologram. Well, we are not quite at the hologram level of technology just yet, but the AI sex doll revolution seems to be taking hold.

Some of the benefits – no divorce settlements and I suppose you get a window seat when you travel. The Global Warming people will be happy since that means a lower birth rate. Then again, what will the government do? The Ponzi scheme of counting on the next generation to pay for the previous will completely collapse.

A new AI sex doll revolution would also have profound economic consequences for the government.

Nonlinear Complexity – Too Much for Most People to Comprehend

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Martin Armstrong.

Good day to you Martin. I know you are a very busy man, but I still like to send you emails time to time, hoping that you may read my email and respond to me. In regards to your recent post about the theory of Non-linear intervention, I was quietly amazed at the fact that I recently had the same idea as yours.

In my math class, my teacher taught us a different way to solve quadratic equations, and it was completely done by original algebra rules, not with the formulas we used to be given in high school. My math teacher said that most teachers do not use this method other than using special case formulas because its non-linear solution and that messes up people’s brain.

Also in my Economics class, we are learning about the basics of supply and demand and here we again use the straight linear method, such as ceteris paribus. I was sincerely curious to know if that is true for everything we do.

You have shown me a clear path in every aspect of this world. But I have a question about the Euro, I too have lost so much money by just looking at the fundamentals and execute trades and now I have learned that the fundamentals do not matter the most to move the market unless its very significant incident. (is that correct?) For instance, the Euro rallied whenever there was a chance to go up, and as a person who was only looking at the fundamental side, it was very odd and frustrating for me to watch it go up, but on the other hand, the technical communities were chanting a song that EUR/USD will spike to 1.2000 and so it did. I am still a fool who cannot read the market.

Mr. Martin, can you tell me where you first looked to find answers from the market? Did you study the technical first or the history? Do you think the current Catalonian independence is a contagious incident for Europe?

I thank you for teaching us great deals all the time. It is such a headache for me to collide real knowledge from you and inexperienced knowledge from school lectures, but I live my days with such joys to tell all these stories to my parents.

Best regards.

C

ANSWER: What you are describing is what set me in the right direction. In physics, the professor said that nothing is random and then I went to economics class and they said everything is random so don’t waste your time trying to forecast it. Since economics claimed the economy was random that really meant that the government can manipulate society to create the perfect world – i.e. Marx & Keynes.

However, it was 9th grade and in history class, the teacher played Toast of New York, which was the attempt to corner the gold market in 1869. I was working part-time in a bullion coin/store back then so I knew gold was fixed at $35. How was it possible that gold was $162 in 1869? That was certainly not linear. Something was just not right.

In mathematics and physical sciences, a nonlinear system is a system in which the change of the output is not proportional to the change of the input. Therefore, nonlinear problems are of great interest to engineers, physicists, and mathematicians because most systems are inherently nonlinear in nature such as weather, climate, disease, and life itself. Nonlinear systems often appear to be chaotic, unpredictable or counterintuitive. This is beyond the imagination or understanding of the average individual. Hence, this stands in opposition to the much simpler linear system which the average individual understands. This is why most theories are based upon whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion.

The fundamental analysis fails every time because it is trying to reduce the market behavior to a linear theory of simplistic logic. If people fear banks and government, some will buy stocks, others property, and still others gold. Each will buy whatever they “feel” most comfortable with. The trend is to sell public assets and move to private, yet all will benefit.

Fundamental analysis is therefore worthless because what moves a market is “belief” not logic. That is why real traders coined the phrase: Buy the rumor but sell the news! It does not matter what the fundamentals are if the people believe something, the markets will move accordingly even when that rumor turns out to be false.

 

As far as the Catalonian independence becoming a contagion, it already is. We see Scotland saying they want another vote. Reunification demonstration for Brittany in France began in 2014 with the turn in the War Cycle. In France, there are demonstrations over the Brittany reunification but the Western press were told not to show it to try to prevent a contagion which is starting in Europe. We will see the same thing rise in Italy going into the May 2018 elections.

 

Market Talk- October 17th, 2017

Having seen yet another US session, Asian markets traded firm and steady. We are on the eve of the Chinese Communist Party meeting which markets are eagerly awaiting any news and views. The Yuan continues to trade around years best levels (6.60) having spent the first six months of 2017 playing around 6.90 levels. The Yen has backed away from the mid 111’s, now looking at the mid 112’s as a short-term play. The Nikkei closes up for yet another day, making a significant break-away from the 21k level. In Australia the ASX performed the best with a +0.7% rally with miners and exporters helping the rally.

Interesting that both the equity and bonds and the currency declined again today in Europe as cash flow edges again towards the US markets. The German Bunds lost ground across the curve and we even saw a pick-up in French CDS (Credit Default Swaps). BREXIT negotiations remain front page news for core and peripherals and certainly remains so in the UK. This on a day where the UK inflation runs at a five year high. The Euro and GBP closed down -0.4% and -0.65% respectively. Gold traded heavy throughout the European time zone with losses of around $15, but interesting it traded heavy in European afternoon hours rather than Asia or US time zones.

The big news for the US markets was that the DOW traded 23k even though it failed to close above it. Confidence remains strong but we did see a small retracement in the NASDAQ and the broader S+P. The Treasury curve continues to flatten with 2’s gaining 1bp and 10’s unchanged. Late news we saw an about turn in the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso earlier declines on NAFTA reports that talks would extend past the 2017 deadline.

2’s closed 1.55% (+1bp), 10’s closed 2.30 (u/c), 30’s 2.80% (-2bp), Bunds 0.37% (u/c), France 0.78% (u/c), Italy 1.99% (-3bp), Greece 5.37% (-3bp), Turkey 11.02% (+5bp), Portugal 2.28% (-2bp), Spain 1.53% (-2bp) and UK Gilts 1.27% (-6bp).