Market Talk- February 21, 2018

On the whole a positive session for Asia with the Hang Seng probably the stand-out performer on the day. Closing up almost 2% gains were led by financials, bouncing after yesterdays nerves, but also a strong performer were energy/chemicals and property sector’s with Country Garden (+5.6%) and China Petro-Chem (+3.7%). Shanghai market remains closed for holidays. The Yen was very quiet overnight and even now still plays mid 107’s, so did not have too much direct impact or influence on the Nikkei. having spent all morning trending higher we saw a reverse into negative territory after lunch on more BOJ talk. However, by close of business we settled just a smidgen better up +0.2% with utilities lending a hand. SENSEX traded relatively well with tech and consumers lifting gains. Talk is the RBI is showing concerns around companies overseas borrowing and its relationship with the Rupee’s increased volatility! Maybe they will also look at BITCOIN activity too.

Interesting that the UK’s FTSE bounced back (+0.6% – ok, only a little) but at the detriment of the currency (GBP -0.5%). The big topic is always going to be BREXIT and that is obviously here for another year yet! Headlines will continue to drive prices but looks as though the negative appears news appears to be creeping in. Other core Europe hit their lows mid morning and benefitted off the back of the positive US opening. IBEX however, did not join the rally and closed down almost 1%, Iberdrola and Acciona both trading over 2% lower. DAX and CAC almost off-set each other with FTSE MIB also closing small down. At the close much of the talk surrounds the FED minutes due after European trading hours and so will be reflected in closing US and Asia’s overnight trading.

Early futures losses were quickly reeled back-in once the cash market opened and the DOW raced up around 150 points before levelling back around +75. As we await the FED minutes, the USD continues to climb with DXY now pushing higher towards with the 90 handle for a couple of days now. FED Minutes release saw a whip-saw reaction with the DOW rallying over 300 points. However, that was to be short lived and soon the DOW was back in negative territory and the close (-160 points) does not look constructive! Sentiment remains focused on the bond market and there yields are being hit on both wings of the curve. DXY looking to have confirmed its timing….

Japan 0.05%, US 2’s closed 2.27% (+5bp), US10’s 2.95% (+6bp), 30’s 3.23% (+8bp), Bunds 0.74% (u/c), France 1.01% (+1bp), Italy 2.04% (-2bp), Greece 4.32% (+3bp), Turkey 11.54% (-5bp), Portugal 1.97% (-5bp), Spain 1.50% (-2bp), Gilts 1.55% (-6bp). Remember that European yields closed before FED Minutes were released. We will need to see Thursdays open before we see the extent that spreads have moved. It will be interesting to see how the battle between the Central Banks plays out! Worth keeping a very close eye on High Yield funds, but especially ETF funds. Can’t imagine there is much new cash destined for that market!

Mueller Expands his Investigation Desperate to Bring Down Trump

CNN is ecstatic. Mueller cannot prove any connection between Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Russia, so now he is turning to investigate if he solicited China or Qatar to invest any money in his company during the campaign.

This is what I mean about Mueller. He is a vile and very evil man who is hell-bent on trying to bring down the Trump Administration for any reason whatsoever. The danger here is he will set off civil unrest that has not been seen since the Civil War.

The CNN reported that Mueller is targeting Kushner for discussions with investors in a project, demonstrates how corrupt Mueller really is. All the scandals of Clintons and their family and friends involved in deals and selling influence to a foreign country who donated to their fake foundation,  The Justice Department gave a pass on anything the Democrats ever did.

The Ukrainian private oil and gas company, Burisma, announced that it has appointed Hunter Biden, the youngest son of US Vice President Joe Biden, to its board of directors. Why are Democrats and their families peddling influence always given a get-out-of-jail-free pass? Mueller is proving that the Deep State is against anyone who does not allow them to do as they like.

Mueller is simply extremely dangerous and he may be the lynch-pin that brings down the entire Western political system for taking out Trump will simply not restore the system to its former free-reign of corruption.

I am not a fan of Kushner, for he is the one who introduced Trump to the Goldman Sachs boys. That’s another huge problem far more serious than any of Mueller’s fictional investigations.

Welcome to the Conspiracy of the Deep State being spear-headed by Mueller. He should be dismissed. The Russian investigation is over, which was all started by Hillary who bluntly stated publicly that Russia “meddled with” the election. Where is the investigation of Hillary selling influence to foreign countries when she was Secretary of State? The FBI uncovered Russia bribed the Obama Administration to get the Uranium deal. Why was that never prosecuted? Oh, that’s right. They are Democrats who support big government and the Deep State!

Bill Clinton did receive $500,000 to deliver a speech at a Russian bank that was promoting Uranium One stock, according to The New York Times, and the company’s chairman donated $2.35 million to the Clinton Foundation in four installments as Uranium One was being acquired. All told, $145 million went to the Clinton Foundation from those linked to Uranium One and UrAsia deals. Handing Bill Clinton speaking fees of $500,000 is the clever way of handing bribes these days.

Of course, Mueller would never investigate that corruption of the Clintons with direct links to Russia.

Adapting Machine Learning for Medicine

One project I want to move into after we finally get Socrates up for all levels of service is to turn toward medicine. Google’s AI algorithm predicts heart disease by scanning your eyes. They have used machine learning to accomplish what a doctor would do by traditional methods including blood work.

Medicine suffers from the same problem as financial analysis. It is dominated by opinion and that depends entirely upon (1) your experience and (2) the current situation. For example, a small child of about two was running a high fever. She was taken to the doctor who was flooded with flu patients. She was checked for the flu, found to be negative, and sent home. Day three, the fever was still there. Again, the little girl was taken back to another doctor. The same thing took place. After day four, the fever persisted and once more she was taken back to a doctor and the same thing took place.

Finally, the mother noticed she was not urinating and the child simply responded that it hurt. A fourth trip ended up admitting her to a hospital with a urinary infection that had by now started to impact her kidneys.

Medicine, like analysis, is dominated by opinion. If the doctor does not think of anything else to test, nothing takes place.

Machine learning can be used with a full body scanner and much more accurate results can be obtained. We need a machine that will also do a full body ultrasound scan, a simple pinprick for a drop of blood, and the machine could come up with a lot more information at a far lower cost than what we see today.

 

Socialism Always Moves to Tyranny

 

The economic message taught in most universities is very distorted. It universally teaches children to judge economic systems from the perspective of their victims. They will endlessly point out the impoverished people and the devastation of the climate as proof that capitalism is evil and that we need government to intervene. We have economist after economist talking always about income disparity as an evil implying that everyone should earn close to the same – one income fits all.

Socialism is a Sin

As they always point a finger at the rich and covet whatever they have in direct violation of the Ten Commandments, politicians are elevated to a pedestal and championed as our savior ignoring how they too leave office clothed in riches and the fool is always the person who buys into the whole political-economic-socialist agenda.

Hillary Clinton saw nothing wrong with renting a house for $50,000 a week in the Hamptons hamlet of Amagansett. I know a lot of wealthy people who would not spend that much to rent a house for a vacation for just one week. It was Hillary during the campaign who pointed to the fact that Trump was a billionaire and said: “Think of what we could do with that!”

Then we have Obama – another champion of the poor. He bought a house in DC and paid $8.1 million. Of course, there was the scheming Obama who turned to real corruption to buy a house for $1.6 million BEFORE he was a Senator. He cut a deal with an indicted felon who bought a property for $625,000 and then sold it to Obama for $104,500 as Obama said it was fair value – right!. Obama has magically earned millions from public service.

Then there is Obama’s famous Rolex watch.  His watch is a Rolex Cellini, the cheap version which tells time-only. It is a white gold case and a classic alligator strap which goes for $15,200.

The Rolex is even pictured in his official portrait. Once again, we have Democrats who always target the rich to get votes and portray them as evil, clothing themselves and living like kings.

Capitalism = Freedom, which simply means you are free to do whatever you like in life compared to Communism where the government told you where to live and what to do. It is Socialism where the government takes an authoritative role that then encourages bribery that is not capitalism, but tyranny.

Socialism has become simply just propaganda. The sad part about it has been most people feel good when they help someone else. I bought computers for the grade school I went to and funded computer courses to try to give the kids a step ahead in life back in the early ’90s. Rockefeller funded archeology around the world among many other things and when you go to museums you see collections donated by private sources. The  National Gallery was donated Andrew Mellon who bought the collection from the communists in Russia to save them and built the museum.

Capitalism lets you decide what to do rather than the government takes the money and put most of it in its pocket for administrative costs. Socialism plays upon the human trait of helping others and then exploits it for those in power who pretend to care while lining their pockets.

Unfortunately, as socialism continually hands more and more power to the government, you end up transforming the government into a tyranny. The classic example of that is simply the bail-in policies where they will no longer protect the people against mismanagement of banks, but they will instead take the money of the people to protect the banks. FDIC was to protect the people and was a BAILOUT system created as part of Roosevelt’s New Deal. That has given way to now BAIL-INS so the government has abandoned even the socialist agenda moving ever closer to raw tyranny.

Funeral Arrangements for Ida Armstrong this Week

We want to thank so many people for their emails. Martin’s mother attended several of the conferences so many people met her and of course she was the star of the movie, the FORECASTER.  Those asking where to send flowers, the place would be:

Givnish Funeral Home of Maple Shade

600 E Main St, Maple Shade Township, NJ 08052

(856) 779-7900

Ida Armstrong Has Passed in Her 100th Year of Life – February 20th, 2018 at 4PM

Today, my mother passed over in her 100th year strong to the end on the very same day that my father died – February 20th. I can only hope he came to get her today.

Many people have often asked me where did I get my strength. My mother raised me in a STOIC fashion and she was the STOIC example in my life. I never heard her ever complain in my life nor did I ever see her sick. She always was the cornerstone of the family and stood by everyone in their time of need. She nursed her mother, father, sisters, and her husband on their deathbeds. It was our turn to be with her is her final hours.

She was the cornerstone of the family. She held everyone together and taught me to always keep my head high in the face of adversity. Her greatest disappointment in life was to watch how the government treated not just me, but her and the rest of the family. She always supported me throughout my life and I promised her I would take over her role.

One hospital gave her the wrong antibiotics and that began her decline. She died peacefully today at home surrounded by family. She was always my greatest supporter. I will miss her dearly.

Market Talk- February 20, 2018

Yesterdays enthusiasm could not be sustained in such thin volume and so it was with HSBC’s earnings miss that returns the fear! The Nikkei took much of the steam and consequently returned 1% of its recent gains. The finance sector was heavy probably responding to HSBC’s worries as most of Asia watched their shares decline over 3%. Retailers were also heavy down around 2% with Industrials following suit. Exporters held-in reasonably well as the Yen lost much of the recent flight to quality bid and was last seen trading mid 107’s. Hang Seng reopened today and shared the sentiment with a -0.8% decline for the day. The ASX closed almost unchanged which was actually an impressive close as much of the day was spent in negative territory. The SENSEX had the opposite trend, having spent 90% of the day positive only to decline in the final hour.

Fortunately in Europe, an array of positive earnings managed to off-set the declines seen in the financials and we a broadly positive day for Europe. Core indices closed strong with near 1% gains seen for DAX, CAC and IBEX with the noticeable outlier being UK’s FTSE. Away from earnings, many concentrated on BREXIT, Greece and ECB posts. The UK continues to speech play but today both the stock market, gilts and they currency lost ground, modestly admittedly – but all lost non the same! The Greece talks centre around the August bailout timeline. It is rumoured to have set aside funds for stability and seeks to emerge from the bailout looking to end the current monitoring. The ECB talks concerns replacements at the board with Jens Weidmann being popular in much of the coverage. Along with GBP declining the Euro (-0.65%) took much of the pain in the DXY bounce today.

US futures were heavy prior to the cash opening but the Walmart miss just ensured that weaker opening. As you would expect, the retail sector led the market lower as Walmart shares lost around 10% on the day. The selling pressure was to build as we approached the closing bell with all indices trading close to their days lows. Another topic hotly discussed today was the amount of Bond and Bill issuance because of the recent shutdowns. This week we see $179bn hitting the market with todays auction probably only moderate at best! When considering the yield spreads between US, Europe and Japan short paper, if be worthwhile to remember it is not just absolute spread but consider the currency hedge that is also required! Gold lost around $20 (1.3%) today with the strength of the USD and a lack of safe-haven demand in what still appears to be a calm stock market decline.

Japan 0.06%, US 2’s closed 2.22% (+3bp), 10’s 2.89% (+2bp), 30’s 3.15% (+2bp), Bunds 0.74% (+1bp), France 1% (+1bp), Italy 2.06% (+2bp), Greece 4.29% (+11bp), Turkey 11.59% (+3bp), Portugal 2.02% (+3bp), Spain 1.52% (+3bp), Gilts 1.61% (+1bp).

Socrates Project Update

Just to keep everyone up to date, we have four outside firms in hyper-mode to get the delivery system up. We are not far away. It has to be able to handle serious traffic from around the globe.

We are pushing as fast as we can. It is the delivery system that we are waiting to be finished.

As for those who ask about intraday ability, yes we have been in negotiations with one of the major systems who want to join forces for intraday use of Socrates.

We will also have a MAJOR announcement to make shortly which will surprise probably everyone in the industry.

Climate Change Conspiracy Against us All

800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

QUESTION: Are you saying that CO2 is not a pollutant and we should not be concerned about rising levels?

OD

ANSWER: Correct. CO2 levels have been much higher than currently over the millennia. The Global Warming crowd has an agenda and the core of that is to reduce the population. They remain influenced by the Malthus theory and have been hell-bent on stopping population growth.

Over the past 100 million years, we have been in a decline in CO2 level dropping from 500 ppm to 200 ppm with an average of about 300 ppm. They refuse to address any of the historical evidence no less the cycle of life itself.

Humans exhale typically consists of 40,000 ppm to even 50,000 ppm of CO2. Should we be fined or extinguished because we are a major contributor to COs levels? Those who are demonizing CO2 as a “pollutant” fail to explain that in a room filled with people CO2 levels can commonly reach 2000 ppm with no apparent ill effects. Even the US Navy sets its limit for CO2 in submarines at 5000 ppm to avoid any measurable effect on sailors. NASA also sets similar limits for humans in spacecraft at the same basic level. So obviously, 300 ppm is not dangerous.

If you measure CO2 level where crops are growing or in a rain forest, they drop drastically because the plants suck it up for that is what they thrive on to live. If you want to lower CO2, then plant more crops and trees.

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) had predicted that we would run out of food which started this entire theory about curtailing population growth that is really behind the whole Global Warming movement. In his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus observed that an increase in a nation’s food production improved the well-being of the populace. However, the improvement was temporary because it led to population growth, which in turn restored the original per capita production level.

In other words, mankind had a propensity to utilize food abundance for population growth rather than for maintaining a high standard of living, Malthus saw this as the doom of humanity.

The flaw in Malthus’ work is the same in the Global Warming crowd. They are completely ignorant of a cycle and take whatever trend they see and project that it will linearly continue to the end. Thus, is the stock market has risen for the past 8 years, then it must always only go up and never down. This is the analysis of the Global Warming conspiracy.

Food Supply & Population

There have been countless investigations into the food supply and the population growth of animals. What has been revealed is that as food supply declines, so does the birth rate. Malthus’ observation that an increase in food supply led to an increase in population was correct, but only one side of the cycle. The birth rates is now declining because, in part, as taxes rise, they have also lowered the standard of living reducing the population. Malthus failed to see the cycle.

The Global Warming crowd ignores the fact that CO2 levels used to be measured in thousands of ppm instead of hundreds historically. In fact, the temperature does not even correlate very well with CO2 levels. During ice ages in the Ordovician period, some 450 million years ago, when the CO2 levels were several thousand of ppm, this did not result in temperatures 10 times greater than today.

Welcome to the Global Warming / Climate Change Conspiracy which is all about reducing the population growth. They can pass laws and reduce population in the industrialized world, but then this does not curtail the developing world who will then invade as we have seen in Europe.


  •  P.C. Quinton and K.G. MacLeod, “Oxygen isotopes from conodont apatite of the midcontinent US: Implications for Late Ordovician climate evolution,” Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 2014, 404: 57–66.

 

Mueller Trying to Take Down Trump – Will He Create Civil War?

 

Prosecutors are really no longer able to prove cases without what is commonly called a “rat” who will take the stand and say whatever the prosecutor directs them to do. They always charge conspiracy because they do not have to actually prove you committed any crime. They threaten someone else to testify against you who swears you intended to do someone or they did something and you told them to do it. It becomes just he said she said affair with no actual proof just innuendo. Conspiracy is the most abusive crime that has filled prisons without ever proving anything.

In a mob trial in New York, a defendant moved to get his phone calls from inside prison that is all recorded. The prison (MCC) made the mistake of giving him the phone calls of a co-defendant who would be testifying for the government against him. To my shock, when we listened to the tapes, here the prosecutor was asking the “rat” to testify against someone else. The rat responded that he did not know that guy. The prosecutor then said: “By the time I am done, you will know him as your brother.” The tapes were given to Judge Kaplan who held that the tapes referred to another case and refused to deny a motion to prevent the “rat” from testifying.

There was another encounter with how the prosecutors knowingly win cases by presenting fake evidence. There was a 23-year-old good looking Spanish kid by the name of Manny. He had asked me to write a remorse letter for him at sentencing. I asked him what did he do? He said he killed two people and went back to his cell to get the pictures. He had stuck a shotgun in the face of a guy and blew his head apart like a pumpkin. I was totally shocked. I did not know what to say. I asked him why did he do this. He said he just wanted to see what it felt like.

Later, the two people Manny testified against I encountered and they were endlessly talking about this guy “Crazy Manny” who testified that he had to kill these two people because these guys threatened to kill him if he did not. They got life +20 years and Crazy Manny got early release.

The basic Conspiracy statute 18 U.S. Code §371 was increased from a 2-year penalty to 5 years in 1948. Then there is 18 U.S. Code § 1030 – Fraud and related activity in connection with computers which can land you in prison for 20 years. Then there is the conspiracy against a financial institution that carries a 30-year penalty – 18 U.S. Code §1344.

Criminal Conspiracy is the most dangerous statute ever crafted which allows the turning of one person against another with no hard evidence. It has been widely criticized for decades, but the government will never abandon this tyranny for they would then have to actually prove a crime, which they no longer seem to be capable of doing when they don’t have to.

In 1922, Harvard Law wrote: “A doctrine so vague in its outlines and uncertain in its fundamental nature as criminal conspiracy lends no strength or glory to the law; it is a veritable quicksand of shifting opinion and ill-considered thought.” 35 HARVARD LAW REVIEW 393, 393 (1922).

This is what Mueller is now conspiring to do to try to take down Trump. He cannot prove there was any collusion with the Russians, but why do we let facts get in the way? CNN, Washington Post, New York Times, POLITICO, and others have all reported that Mueller’s indictment as if it was a proven fact. They are all salivating over the idea of now threatening people with life in imprisonment if they do not say whatever Mueller demands.

Now, Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, is Mueller’s target to try to convert him into a “rat” or formally known as a cooperating witness. Mueller has been unsuccessful so far so now he is going after Rick Gates threatening him with prison time to testify against Manafort. If Mueller’s investigation can get Manford to testify to a script written by Mueller, then he can take down the White House and set the stage for the complete collapse of Western society.

Mueller is now offering a deal to Gates who cannot take down Trump, but he will use him to take down Manafort to threaten him with 30 years+. In turn, he hopes to get Manafort to then seek a deal and flip becoming a “rat” to take down the White House and Trump. Mueller is trying to overthrow Trump to restore the full tyranny of the bureaucracy.

There is the real risk if Mueller takes down Trump. This will by no means restore the system to where it was before Trump. We have crossed the Rubicon and Trump beat 17 career Republicans and if you eliminate California (widely suspected of voter fraud) Trump beat Hillary in the popular vote nationwide. Taking down Trump is more likely going to spark civil unrest and a movement toward civil war even by 2021. The Trump supporters will view this whole thing as a conspiracy against the people and Democracy.