Where Does 2032 Come From?

QUESTION #1: Thank you for choosing to live the strength of your convictions – especially through the terrible dark days of your solitary confinement. Thank you for all that you are doing for those of us who choose to watch, think and learn.

For over a decade I have been reading that China will replace the US as the world power in 2032 – not the early 30s or the decade of the 30’s, but that exact year. How is it that sources such as the Economist have been predicting this year as the year of change for such a long period of time? It looks like your computer is saying the same thing, when you state that “Western society will crumble by 2032.” What information is causing so many disparate reputable sources to cite this specific year?

K

QUESTION #2: It seems very odd that many others are starting to claim 2032 is the turning point. A friend of mine works at a magazine in London who has used that 2032. I asked him if they relied on your work. He smiled and just said they can’t mention you for political reasons. What is that about? Do you know?

DP

ANSWER: The computer projects 2032. It is not my opinion or premonition. How they  justify 2032 from an “opinion” perspective is beyond me. I do not believe anyone can give such a date with conviction from any current economic theory. It is strange that they will not cite our work. I think they fear repercussions from the governments that stick their foot into everything. Yet, governments are monitoring this perhaps out of their own self-interest. Shutting me up will not stop the clock from ticking.

I have no idea how it is possible to arrive at such a date off the top of your head. Even if you look at economics, the crisis begins 2020/2021. The year 2032 is by no means the beginning of the process, but rather the end.

Explaining the Fall of Western Society As We Know It

QUESTION: Western Civilization will collapse by 2032.
I didn’t expect such a strong comment from you.
Specifically, what does this mean?
On the level of ancient Rome? Followed by the dark ages or just mediocrity and the rise of the East?

GVH

 

ANSWER: There is a serious risk that after 2032, this will be very much like the fall of Rome. Nonetheless, it is my personal hope that if we understand that risk, we can avert it and move to a new type of wave formation and learn from the past just once thereby advancing to the next level of understanding. At the lower threshold of risk lies that reality whereby at the very minimum we are looking at the collapse of centralized governments as took place in 1989 with communism. That will result in greater separatist movements and the breakup of national states as we know it today. The USA could break into four main regions. Britain would find it too splits and Scotland, as well as Wales and Ireland, revert back to their origins. The idea of centralized power in Europe will fail as it did with Charlemagne, Peter the Great, The Holy Roman Empire, Napoleon, and Hitler. There are even separatist movements in Germany beginning to rise with Bavaria against the north as many will proudly say they are Bavarian first before German.

 

The fall of Rome led to a separatist trend with the breakup of Europe. Even when Rome fell, that barbarians were imitating Roman traditions for a while. They began to issue coins in the name of the East Emperor just to try to pretend that they were the rulers of the West. They wanted to conquer Rome to be Roman. We have the invasion of refugees in Europe and it has begun from South America into the USA which is why Trump is even fighting for a Wall. The Democrats are trying to stop Trump simply because it was a Trump campaign promise. They are by this very opposition encouraging people to rush in BEFORE any wall is built.

With the collapse of Rome, the monetary system collapsed and people hoarded their wealth. This resulted in coinage vanishing from circulation. Eventually, gold vanished from the money supply for nearly 600 years. It did not reappear until 1232 with the first coin being issued in Brindisi. This was issued in order to conduct trade with Byzantine and Arabs.

So what the computer is showing is the rise in civil unrest and the risk of war. Just look at what took place at the State of the Union – there is no UNION. This nonsense the Democrats have engaged in has fired the first shot that will be heard around the world. They opposite absolutely everything that Trump says or does. When the political tide switches, the Republicans will do the same to them. It is over. There is no common ground or going back. We are witnessing the destruction of all democratic systems. This is how republics die – polarized opposition.

This is part of what the computer is forecasting – the collapse of governments as we have known. NEVER before has anyone dared to say that the president was not “their” president. We always accept the winner even when it was someone we voted against. That acceptance no longer exists. Furthermore, we are looking at the collapse of socialism the same as communism. Both were derived from Karl Marx. They are both unsustainable economically. The pension system is collapsing with many municipal governments having near or more people on retirement than working. Just look at Illinois as an example. The state, provincial, and municipal levels of government cannot create money. All they can do is raise taxes to force people to pay state employees that were promised endless money for life.

Supreme Court will Take Up the Census Argument for 2020

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the Trump administration’s plan to determine who is and who is not a U.S. citizen during the 2020 Census. The justices agreed Friday to squeeze the controversial case on to their April calendar, because the decennial Census questionnaire is scheduled for printing this summer. A federal district judge in New York struck down the plan last month, ruling that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross exceeded his authority when he announced the inclusion of the citizenship question. The district judge’s order is very strange and it appears to be really off the charts. He wrote:

“The evidence at trial, including from the government’s own witness, exposed how adding a citizenship question would wreck the once-in-a-decade count of the nation’s population.”

“The inevitable result would have been – and the administration’s clear intent was – to strip federal resources and political representation from those needing it most.”

What is very strange here is that the Constitution does not state that non-citizens have any rights whatsoever to vote. The press has really clouded this issue and made it seem that Trump is some sort of racist because of this issue. However, as it currently stands, even a legal immigrant with a Green Card has the right to vote if over 18, but they can only vote in local and state elections that don’t require you to be a U.S. citizen. Unfortunately, green card holders are already prohibited from voting in federal elections – but they do pay taxes to work here in the USA. I lived in London and even had a British drivers license. I paid taxes there but never had the right to vote.

The right to vote is RESTRICTED to citizens. Even someone legally present in the USA cannot vote in federal elections. The seats in Congress are allocated according to the census which is to be taken in 2020. Let us say that California has 50% composed of  immigrants both legal with green cards as well as illegal. They are fighting this matter because they get resources from the Federal Government and they have seats in Congress based upon the census. So if 50% were non-citizens, then California should have 50% less seats in Congress.

If I were on the Supreme Court I would have to vote in favor of the Trump Administration for it is inconsistent to allow seats in Congress to be allocated for people who are not citizens and cannot legally vote. The entire argument seems to be about simply not deporting people. I have no problem with a someone who came here as a child and was raised in the USA staying in the USA. They should be instructed to (1) become a citizens or (2) then leave. Citizens pay taxes federally BECAUSE they have a Social Security number. They also vote. Why should people who cannot vote somehow be represented in Congress? It just does not seem to be consistent with the Constitution.

 

Is There Ever a Right or Wrong?

What is true and what is false? Do those things even exist or are they simply subjective opinions? Naturally, if we look at politics there is a wholesale denial of the existence of any objective reality and moral values. Each side sees only its own reality and proclaims the other is wrong. Is the glass half-full or half-empty? Is there any absolute definitive truth in describing this glass pictured here?

This becomes a problem in politics. We cannot clearly distinguish good from bad, knowledge from ignorance, or dominance from submission. Who is the ruler and who is to be ruled? It’s a critical theory that is reduced in reality to the conclusion that there is no universal truth. No matter what we define, there is always an opposing opinion. Hence, this is my theory of why cycles MUST exist. There is never some one-size fits all. Such attempts by one side to impose their demands only leads to civil unrest. There can be no single truth in life for there will never be an agreement as to what is true or false.

It is wrong to kill someone. But what about crimes of passion that would not reflect the same act as someone who was a serial killer? What about a soldier who kills in a war? Is this not distinguished from someone who kills people in a nightclub rage? What about someone who defends themselves in a store robbery and kills the intruder? There emerges qualifications that will always call into question what is true and what is false.

 

Karl Marx’s Grave Vandalized – Is this the Cyclical Turning Point from the 1848 Revolutions?

Karl Marx’s grave was selectively vandalized. Someone used a hammer to deface the monument. No other graves were attacked so it is clear this was a politically motivated incident in line with the rising economic tensions between the left and the right. The tomb of Karl Marx is located in London’s Highgate Cemetery. Marx had been exiled from Germany and then the rest of continental Europe following the failed Revolutions of 1848, which engulfed most of Europe.

Marx did his research in London. This is his pass to the British Library. The Revolutions of 1848 were essentially a democratic movement and an uprising against the political elite. In 1848, Karl Marx published “The Communist Manifesto” with Friedrich Engels, and was exiled to London as a result. In London, where he lived the remainder of his life, he wrote the first volume of “Das Kapital.” This undoubtedly influenced the revolutions that opened the door to communism/socialism. This also inspired the collapse of the old feudal structures and created independent national states. The revolutionary wave began in France in February 1848, when the French monarchy was overthrown. Communism actually began in France as a “commune” where people lived in one shared community with no individual property rights. It was the French who convinced Marx that communism would work better than just socialism, which he had advocated initially.

This 1848 Revolution spread like a contagion, similar to what the American Revolution had done during the previous century. The contagion of 1848 spread to most of Europe and parts of Latin America. In total, it impacted over 50 countries. This was by no means a cooperation between various revolutionary trends around Europe.

Generally, a contagion is attributed to six factors:

  • (1) widespread dissatisfaction with political leadership, as we have today;
  • (2) demands for more participation in government and democracy, as republics have once again robbed us of our right to vote;
  • (3) demands for freedom of the press, which is manifesting today on the internet;
  • (4) the demands of the working class, whom today have been oppressed by huge tax rates combined with income taxes and VAT at 20%+;
  • (5) the upsurge of nationalism, which we are again watching unfold thanks to terrorism; and finally,
  • (6) the regrouping of the reactionary forces based on the royalty, aristocracy, army, church, and peasants, which is again unfolding as class warfare.

Many believe that the Yellow Vest Movement is unfolding in the very same spirit, and it too has spread like a contagion. Ironically, the cycle of civil unrest based upon economics discontent should rise in 2020. Indeed, the Yellow Vest movement appears to be right on schedule.

The Netflix Tax

I have warned that once one state taxes something, the idea spreads like a contagion. Illinois and California wanted to tax movies or anything you stream. Now, Georgia is looking at the same thing. This is all part of the economic decline. The states are broke. Their pensions are consuming everything. It is no longer about servicing the people, it is all about exploiting the people to fund themselves. There is no rationale behind this. It is all about needing more to cover this year’s budget. What about next year? They basically simply say they will deal with that when it comes.

With every new tax, they simply reduce disposable net income, which in turn lowers living standards. This process is not sustainable. A child with a simple calculator can easily figure out that everything will come crashing down. We have politicians who are career people and have rarely ever been on the side of people. It is beyond comprehension, for the bottom line is always the same.

NO POLITICIAN WILL VOTE AGAINST THEMSELVES

Did Aliens Just Visit Us?

A number of people have asked what is my opinion of Avi Loeb’s theory that we were just visited by an alien probe. He basically noted strange facts about the probe he called ‘Oumuamua. ʻOumuamua was the first interstellar object ever detected passing through our solar system. Formally designated 1I/2017 U1, ‘Oumuamua was discovered by Robert Weryk using the Pan-STARRS telescope at Haleakala Observatory, Hawaii, on October 19th, 2017, 40 days after it passed its closest point to the sun.

Loeb has explained that we can calculate at what rate of speed a solar system will eject rocks during its history. When you look at all the stars in the vicinity of our sun, we discover that they move relative to our sun. In other words, our sun moves relative to their systems around us with respect to speed. However, perhaps one in five hundred stars move as slow as ‘Oumuamua. Therefore, the speed of the object is significantly different and much slower. Most rocks would move roughly at the same speed of the star from which they were ejected. If this object came from another star, that star would have to be very special and moving at an incredibly slow pace.

Then there was the matter of its brightness. It would spin every eight hours, and its brightness changed by at least a factor of ten. The fact that its brightness varies by a factor of ten as it spins means that it is at least ten times longer than its width. It is also possible that the shape is more of a pancake like geometry. The most unusual fact about this object is that when it deviates from an orbit it becomes shaped purely by the gravitational force of the sun. There is also no cometary tail here and there is a deviation from the expected orbit which results in this potential classification to be some sort of probe.

There are some who believe that we are alone in the vast universe with billions of planets. The likelihood of that I find not very credible for why would God create the universe for no reason. Also, human reasoning has been highly questionable. They use to torture and execute people for simply saying the Earth was round and not flat. The story of Giordano Bruno (1548–1600) is rarely told. I believe he is a figure from the past that is in need of rescue because he basically is perhaps the first person to envision a dynamic universe building upon Copernicus’ work. His essential theory saw the universe with many worlds and suns basically as we accept today. He gave his life for that proposition. You can imagine that those who believed God created the world were not about to accept the idea that there were multiple solar systems when they refused to accept that the planets revolved around the sun. Despite the fact that the Bible made no statement that the Earth was the center of the planetary system or that the Earth was flat, that reasoning resulted in the punishment for those who dared to disagree.

On February 17th, 1600, Bruno was taken to the Camo de’ Fior. His tongue was gaged so they would not have to listen to his screams of pain when he was burned alive. The importance of Giordano Bruno’s books was established by being placed on the forbidden list on August 7th, 1603. When Galileo (1564-1642) was confronted for his theory that agreed with Bruno, he had to recant or be burned alive at the stake.

At the risk of being burned at the stake alive, I keep an open mind.

Market Talk – February 15, 2019

 

Asia:

The week ended on a disappointing note for the Asian markets from an otherwise relatively decent weekly return.

The Nikkei 225 declined 1.08%, but managed to increase 2.81% for the week. The Shanghai declined 1.37% today. US and Chinese trade talks have yet to come to a conclusion with the situation crossing the mid-month point today.

The KOSPI and Hang Seng lost 1.38% and 2.03%, leaving the Hang Seng to be the worst performer of the week. The ASX rose 24 bps today, ending the week flat.

The AUD also rose against the dollar by 24 bps, marking capital flows entering into the region. The NZD also benefitted rising 29 bps today. The dollar was taking some back from the region as a whole, as it seems risk has been taken off in the region. Both the USDJPY and USDCNY increased by 4 bps.

Gold rose by 27 bps to 1317.89, reaching a two-week high, and silver remained the same at 15.63. The divergence here shows this flight to quality in gold as global investors seem to be withdrawing support for equities during these uncertain times.

Some economic news arrived from China. New loans increased much higher than expected – 3023 Bn versus a forecast of 2800 Bn. Indian Reserves reduced slightly to 398 Bn from 400 Bn. Imports and exports largely remained the same for India.

Europe:

The European markets seemed to be excited over the news that Teresa May’s support was taken away after yesterday’s vote in the house of commons (303 seats against vs 259 for, with 87 seats abstained). Although not legally binding, it did suggest confidence in the Conservative party’s direction, and conviction was being questioned. This certainly shows to the EU that the politics in the UK is in mass confusion. This may be positive going forward for the EU – showing the fragile state of unity within the kingdom.

The results naturally were split between parties, showing a lack of critical thinking. There seems to be little regard for what may be best for the country – instead, it is simply political motivation to point fingers to say “we can do better than you.”

This is a historical moment for Britain. Unless the “strongest plan” and unity is achieved between the parties, then it is inevitable this will not end well for the UK.

The markets seem to react to this with the EU markets, benefitting well, with the likes of the DAX index rising 2% for the day. IBEX, CAC and the FTSE MIB rose close to 2% also. The UK also benefitted rising 61 bps for the day. When you take FX in consideration, the GBP rose against the dollar by 36 bps, whereas the EURO dipped by 26 bps.

Lots of mixed economic data was released from the EU, with the Spanish CPI numbers increasing by 1% YoY. Italian trade balance was -0.60Bn for the month of December. UK core retail sales rose 4.1% and the EU’s trade balance coming in at 17Bn total for December.

US/Americas:

Stocks soared in the States today as yesterday’s noise turned into renewed hope after a new budget deal and positive sentiment on China trade talks. The Dow jumped gained +443.86 points (25,883.25 close, +1.74%). The Nasdaq Composite finished strong +45.46 (7,472.41 close, +0.61%), with the S&P 500 was even stronger +29.87 (2,775.60 close, +1.09%) and the Russell 2000 having the best day + 24.14 (1,569.25 close, +1.56%). This marks the eight-consecutive week of gains for both the Nasdaq and the Dow, and the seventh week of gains for the S&P 500. Quite a turn of events off the lows of December – though, this is very much in line with how we’ve viewed the markets coming into this past week.

In case you missed it, the U.S. was officially placed under a national state of emergency today. President Trump signed the order into effect this afternoon, demanding $8 billion in funding to build the U.S.-Mexico border wall. This came just after the President signed the budget passed by Congress to avoid a second government shutdown, but this will not keep him from trying every angle to uphold his campaign promise of implementing a wall by any means necessary. This issue promises to have more legs as it goes through legal challenges.

Meanwhile U.S. – China trade talks shall continue into next week, but this time shifting from Beijing to Washington. And so it goes.

On a different note, cannabis stocks are surging in both the U.S. and Canada. Canopy Growth Corp., a Canadian-based company, reported today that their revenue during Q3 increased 282%. In October 2018, Canada legalized cannabis at a federal level. In the United States, however, it remains illegal in all but 10 states. The controversial legalities surrounding this potential hot new commodity make it highly volatile.

The TSX Composite gained +142.26 points today (15,838.24 close, +0.91%), led by the TSX 60, which was up +8.84 (944.88 close, +0.94% close). Down south, the Brazilian Bovespa was down -0.50% today (97,525.91 close, -489.19).

U.S. markets will be closed this coming Monday, February 18, in honor of President’s Day.

Energy:

Crude oil increased 2.30% today, making it the biggest weekly gain for 2019. Crude currently is trading at 55.57 per barrel. Brent increased by 2.29% and is trading at 65.99 per barrel. The world’s largest offshore oil field in Saudi Arabia was partially shut down today due to a ship’s anchor cutting a main power cable to the rig. The oil rig has a capacity of roughly 1m barrels of oil, which is enough to cause the market to move. Elsewhere, India declined to take US warning about Venezuelan oil by still being an active purchaser.

Bonds:

Japan -0.02%(-1bp), US 2’s 2.52% (+2bps), US 10’s 2.67%(+1bps), US 30’s 3.00%(-1bps), Bunds 0.10% (-0bp), France 0.54% (+1bp), Italy 2.81% (+1bp), Turkey 14.45% (-11bp), Greece 3.82% (-4bp), Portugal 1.57% (-2bp), Spain 1.26% (+2bp) and UK Gilts 1.16% (+1bp).

The Great Myths that Never Die: Rothschilds & Petrodollar

The two major myths that I get asked about all the time are the Rothschilds and whether pricing oil in yuan or euro will cause the dollar to collapse. I think I know something about the Rothschilds. I was even offered an investor back in the 1980s who wanted to buy into the company, and it was one of the Rothschilds. Nevertheless, it seems as though these legends live on for centuries and no one bothers to review the evidence.

Rothschild Mayer_AmschelThe Bible of the Rothschild conspiracy comes from “The Creature from Jekyll Island.” This popular book is probably the most distorted review of history I have ever encountered. It contains a quote that is often attributed to Mayer Rothschild, and I dare to find anyone who can come up with this quote that preexisted the publication of this book. I believe it was just made up. The quote claims that Mayer Rothschild once said:

“Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.”

The reason why this quote is fake is rather clear. The US did not begin to issue paper money until 1861, nearly 50 years after his death. It wasn’t until 1921 when the Bank of England gained a legal monopoly on the issue of banknotes in England and Wales. The entire authority to issue banknotes started with the Bank Charter Act of 1844 when the ability of other banks to issue notes was restricted. The first banknotes were originally hand-written and were merely like checks. It was not until 1725 when cashiers had to sign each note and make them payable to someone. Actually, printed banknotes at the Bank of England began in 1855, which was about 40 years after Mayer was dead.

The quote was made up to justify this idea that the Federal Reserve was evil and owned by bankers who could create money at will. The entire problem was completely distorted, for the ability to create an elastic money supply during a recession at the Fed would be able to buy corporate paper which was redeemed upon expiration thereby contracting the money supply. It was World War I when Congress instructed the Fed to buy government debt to fund the war and never restored the original structure to what it once was. Elastic money was necessary and had long been in practice by the clearing houses since the 1850s. It was not a policy invented by bankers with the Fed.

Hence, this fake quote by Mayer predates a central banks creating money, and it appears the person selected was dead so there could be no challenge. It has been used to convince everyone that central banks are evil and they are merely the puppets of the Rothschild family who control the world. The Rothschilds lost their power as did the Medici. They have been replaced by Goldman Sachs, which is affectionately called “Government Sachs” among professional dealers and traders. It is the former directors of Goldman that have infiltrated governments worldwide – not the

All these claims that the “petrodollar” is going to collapse are a total joke. Oil is less than 10% of world trade. These people are living in the ’70s. Hey, cut the hair and get rid of the bell bottoms. It’s 40+ years later! There is not even an attempt to offer a true honest analysis of the subject. Just look at the figures. The oil and gas drilling sector make up between 4.6% and 6.5% of the global economy.  The FX market DAILY trading volume is about $5.3 trillion,which dwarfs the equities and futures markets no less oil and gold. Just look at the numbers.