New Discovery Proves History Books Were WRONG!


I have previously written how the academics have REFUSED to revise history even when the evidence has been right in their face. I have previously written that the date for the eruption of Vesuvius could not possibly historically correct based upon a single coin that was discovered in the dig. My position based upon a single coin has now at last been confirmed by writing on a wall recently discovered.  This time, they have NO CHOICE!!!!

Coins have often called into question recorded history. The date of the destruction of Pompei near Naples has been a classic example of how the academic community has defended old interpretations and refuse to revise previous assumptions. The history books have written in stone that Vesuvius erupted burying Pompeii definitively on August 24th, 79 AD as the date carved in stone. This date has been interpreted from a letter to the historian Tacitus some 25 years following the event. This was his old friend Pliny the Younger who provided an eye-witness account of the eruption. He states that the eruption took place on Nonum Kal September (the ninth day before the Kalends of September), which has been calculated as being August 24th. However, Tacitus was translated during the 16th Century which remains questionable on many points. The ancient historian Cassius Dio directly states that the disaster took place “towards the end of the harvesting season” which would be in October, not August.

The excavation of Pompeii revealed that the stores were selling fruit that would not have been seasonal for August. There were amphoras filled with wine after the harvest which had been sealed and ready for transportation and sale. Many of the people discovered were wearing warm clothing. That has been dismissed as they just wanted to cover themselves for maintaining a wrong interpretation for decades. But during excavations of Pompeii’s “House of the Gold Bracelet” in 1974, 180 silver and 40 gold coins were discovered with the bodies of a group of victims. The coins were buried with the people attesting to their link with the eruption. The coins were never cataloged until 2006. There was one coin that confirmed that the date for the eruption of Pompeii was incorrect and that the account of Cassio Dio was closer to fact than Tacitus.

Titus (79-81AD) was emperor at the time of the eruption and he was remembered for the relief efforts. Titus’ administration was marked not by military or political conflicts, but by disasters. His first disaster was the eruption of Vesuvius. The eruption destroyed the cities and resort communities around the Bay of Naples in addition to Pompeii and Herculaneum which were buried under many feet of stone, ash, and lava. Titus appointed two ex-consuls to organize and coordinate the relief effort. He personally donated large amounts of money for the relief effort and he even personally toured the region the following year like presidents do today after such disasters (human nature never changes).

A single silver denarius was discovered among the 180 silver coins in 1974. When it was cataloged, it overturned history and has ever since been buried again in the Naples Museum rather than rewrite the history books. Titus’ father Vespasian (69-79AD) died on June 24th, 79 AD. Therefore, any coin of Titus as emperor would have to have the very first recording of his power “IMP VIIII” or 8th Imperator, which was a title that meant ‘leader of the army’ to the Romans. The award was generally given at this point in history for a particularly important victory that was celebrated. In some cases, these subsequent awards, denoted by a numeral following IMP, which also allows dating of coins to a very short period.

The coin discovered in Pompeii had the legend “IMP XV,” which was granted to Titus for the war in Britannia where he sent Gnaeus Julius Agricola who pushed further into Caledonia and managed to establish several forts there as recorded by Tacitus (Agricola 22). Therefore, Titus received this title of Imperator for the fifteenth time for this event, according to Cassius Dio (Roman History LXVI.20). This took place we know in September 79 AD about 3 months after becoming emperor following his father’s death. Obviously, if any coin was discovered in the ruins of Pompeii with “IMP XV” in its legend, then this provides absolute proof that the date for Vesuvius of August 24th, 79 AD cannot be correct as I previously wrote.


Archeologists in Pompeii have discovered a remarkable inscription written in charcoal which has survived the catastrophy confirming that the eruption of Mt Vesuvius indeed took place in October 79AD as confirmed by the coin discovered and ignored.  The charcoal writing, discovered on the wall of a villa during a new phase of excavations, adds weight to a theory that the volcano destroyed the town in October 79AD rather than August of that year in line with Cassio Dio and the denarius of Titus. The Italian authorities said the new discovery “rewrites the history” of Pompeii proving that the August 24th date was WRONG! The inscription reads, in Latin, XVI K NOV – the 16th day before the first day of November in the Roman calendar, in other words, October 17th. The inscription may have been written by a builder or architect who was working on the restoration of a villa a few days before the eruption, possibly as a way of recording the work he had done. Remarkably, it survived the catastrophic eruption of Vesuvius now confirming October 24th.

Archeologists recently discovered that a worker had inscribed the date of “the 16th day before the calends of November”, meaning October 17, on a house at Pompeii. “Today, with much humility, perhaps we will rewrite the history books because we date the eruption to the second half of October,” said Italy’s Minister of Culture Alberto Bonisoli. At last, the single silver denarius discovered, and which has been ignored for so long, has been finally vindicated. The coins won!!!!

Market Talk- October 19, 2018

Another negative open today but fortunately was not to last! Although China’s GDP released lower than expected weekend book squaring and absolute levels helped revive values by the close, also helped by a little “authoritative” speech play . Growth came in at 6.5% YOY which was missed the 6.6% markets were looking for, but the Shanghai did rally 2.6% following supportive measures. Todays bounce helped but remains 2.5% lower on the week. The currency still plays around the 6.93 level whilst many talk the magic 7 number. It remains 6.5% weaker on the year, but whilst the Shanghai is 23% lower YTD there is still a lot of work ahead of the November 30th trade talks. the Nikkei opened around 1.5% lower then managed to find its feet but still closed off -0.56%. The Yen has been incredibly quiet this week whilst remaining opportunistic to safety runs. SENSEX resumed trading after the holiday yesterday, but remains heavy. The INR has bounced a touch but stocks are suffering probably because of that. Trend looks to be the same however for next week, with a resumption of equity selling (possible target 33,800) and weaker currency.

European markets were encouraged by the Shanghai’s bounce and so we opened core indices in positive territory. That wasn’t to last that long because we started to see selling hit the peripheral bond markets with Italian debt out 15bp at one stage. Late in afternoon trading there were some positive noises coming from the EU surrounding the Italian budget and buckled with “official support rumours” helped BTP’s to close 21bp tighter on the day. News came too late for FTSE MIB too as that had been trading weaker for much of the day. Closing near its lows the weekends headlines will be closely watched for Mondays direction. CAC and DAX both off around -0.45% while the UK’s FTSE closed up +0.32% on – then 0 weaker currency. However, in late US trading the Pound has rallied on optimism of positive BREXIT headlines expected over the weekend. Economic data is being watched, but unless it is way off of market consensus is tending to be ignore. There are far too many structural issues to be concerned about data currently.

Early US gains were lost in a thin volatile morning session. What is interesting is that its the DOW that appears to be assuming the led index today, makes a change from the NASDAQ. This could well be international money starting to seek stock even though a refreshing bid for P+G stock provides the reason. Treasuries are resuming their yield climb all be it a parallel shift across the curve. The market still does not believe the FED will raise to the dot plot next year, but as we see prices fall the demand is still looking for paper. The NASDAQ is down 7% this month but it remains up over 12% YOY. The S+P also down around 3% on the month against an 8% YTD, short term still looks volatile but the flow is still into the US Dollar.

Japan 0.15%, US 2’s closed 2.90% (+3bp), US 10’s closed 3.20% (+3bp), US 30’s 3.38% (+2bp), Bunds 0.46% (+5bp), France 0.83% (+4bp), Italy 3.47% (-21bp), Turkey 18% (+39bp), Greece 4.30% (-10bp), Portugal 2.01% (-1bp), Spain 1.72% (u/c) and Gilts 1.57% (+3bp).

Why Democrats Love to Spy On Americans

Hastings Michael - 2

Michael Hastings was the journalist exposing the surveillance state. Hastings wrote about the investigation of reporters by the U.S. Department of Justice back in 2013. He said that the restrictions on the freedom of the press by the Obama administration were a “war” on journalism.  He wrote his last story before he died in what may have been a cyber attack. Someone was able to control his car remotely and drove it into a tree at top speed. His last story was entitled: “Why Democrats Love to Spy On Americans”, published by BuzzFeed on June 7, 2013. Any journalist who goes for the truth about the Deep State seems to end up dead. Hastings wrote that “the entire caste of current Democratic leaders as a gang of civil liberty opportunists.”

Hastings exposed how the Obama Administration hunted and prosecuted anyone who would leak information about their unconstitutional conduct. Obama even put in prison John Kirakou, formerly in the CIA, who raised concerns about the agency’s torture program. Indeed, the Deep State came into full power under the Obama Administration. It was then used against Trump during the 2016 election. This was way beyond Watergate under Nixon. But the standards have changed so much, that not even Trump can investigate because he has to use the very same agencies who will protect themselves.

Hastings died in a fiery high-speed automobile crash on June 18th, 2013, in Los Angeles. Today, cars connected with GPS can actually be hacked. It is possible to take control of your car, right down to the steering wheel, remotely. WIRED Magazine has proven this ability, which many others have confirmed. The likelihood that Hastings was killed remotely in an auto cyber attack is extremely high. He was on the Snowden affair and was the reason Snowden had to leave the country and turn everything over to the Guardian in London.

The Greek Dark Age & Climate Change

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You mentioned that the environment was the primary cause of the Greek Dark age between the Heroic and Hellenistic periods. Can you elaborate on that at all?

Thank you. They do not seem to connect the dots as you say in school


ANSWER: What is most interesting is the fact that they do not connect the dots which are so glaring for that period of time. The Bronze Age Collapse was a Dark-Age in the Near East, Asia Minor, Aegean region, North Africa, Caucasus, Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean. This encapsulated the transition from the Late Bronze Age to the Early Iron Age, which was violent, sudden, and a major setback for civilization as a whole. We seem to focus on the fall of Rome, but not the catastrophic collapse of the Bronze Age.

The political economy of city-states that dominated the Aegean region and Anatolia region (Modern Turkey), simply disintegrated much like Rome whereby people abandoned cities and formed small isolated village during the Greek Dark Age. This takes place about 51.6 years following the cultural collapse of the Mycenaean kingdoms, of the Kassite dynasty of Babylonia, of the Hittite Empire in Anatolia and the Levant, and of the Egyptian Empire. We also see the political-economic destruction of Ugarit and the Amorite states in the Levant. Over in the Luwian states of western Asia Minor, we also see a collapse in civilization. There was also a period of tremendous political-economic chaos in Canaan (Israel). This wholesale collapse of all of these city-states resulted in the collapse of trade routes as we saw with the collapse of Rome. This also manifests in the reduction of literacy in much of the known world.

Hattusa became the capital of the Hittite Empire in the 17th century BC. The city was destroyed, together with the Hittite state itself, around 1200 BC, as part of the Bronze Age collapse. The site was subsequently abandoned. Modern estimates put the population of the city between 40,000 and 50,000 at it’s the peak. The dwelling houses which were built with timber and mud bricks have vanished from the site, leaving only the ruins of the stone built temples and palaces. The lost city was rediscovered at the beginning of the 20th century in central Turkey by a German archeological team. One of the most important discoveries at the site has been clay tablets, consisting of legal codes, procedures, and literature of the ancient Near East.

In the first phase of this fascinating period, we witness the complete violent destruction, and abandonment of cities such as Hattusa, Mycenae, and Ugarit. This all takes place within just one 51.6 year wave of the Economic Confidence Model at the end of the 13th century and the beginning of the 12th century BC. Civilization seems to collapse on a grand wholesale basis with almost every significant city in the eastern Mediterranean world is then destroyed, many of which were never again to ever be occupied again.

Assyria and Elam appear to survive the Bronze Age Collapse and then even Elam is nearly completely destroyed by Nebuchadnezzar I who revived Babylonian Empire briefly before he in turn suffered a series of defeats by the Assyrians. After the death of their leader, Ashur-bel-kala in 1056 BC, then we see Assyria began an economic decline for about 112 years. – but by the end of the 12th century BC as it really fell back to just a city-state but it did survive the Bronze Age Collapse just greatly reduced by around 1000BC.

By the end of the ensuing Dark Age that engulfed the entire region, the former Hittite Empire appears to be broken apart in separatist movements and what eventually emerges is independent city-states in Cilicia and the Levant (Syria). This period seems to be great migrations as people began to move south due to climate change. Bu the mid-10th century BC, we see Aramaeans moving into the Levant and the Philistines then settle in southern Canaan where the Canaanite-speaking Semites. From 935 BC after the worst of the collapse in sunspot activity, Assyria began to reorganize and once more expand outwards reestablishing the Neo-Assyrian Empire (911-605 BC), which the Egyptians even feared. Phrygians, Cimmerians, and Lydians arrived in Asia Minor, who were Greek in origin. The Colchians (Georgians) also emerge at this time. The various people of this region appear to reform civilization with the warming becoming the Iranian peoples such as the Persians, Medes, Parthians, and Sargatians. These groups all appear in Ancient Iran soon after the Sunspot low. In the Aegean, this is the reappearance of the Classical Greece Era.

This is the period of the Great Migration South as I call it. They are known as the Sea People who invaded Northern Africa which corresponds to the colder climate up north. The Sea Peoples remain unidentified and have remained a source of much speculation. In the archaeological record, the Philistines first appear in the early 12th century BC with the Bronze Age Collapse. Their arrival is signaled by artifacts that belong to what is clearly an extraordinarily different culture from other local populations at the time. Their pottery closely parallels to the ancient Greek world. They also use Aegean rather than a Semitic script. They also eat pork as well as the occasional dog. Several passages in the Hebrew Bible describe the interlopers as coming from the “Land of Caphtor,” or modern-day Crete. Keep in mind that Crete fell to Mycenae who also conquered Troy after Thera erupted and destroyed much of the Minoan economy. I believe the Sea People were of Mycenae in origin.

There is a lack of contemporary historical explanation documenting this period. However, correlating it with the weather, it appears that we are dealing with a Climate Change where the Earth entered into a very cold period and crops failed forcing a migration south.


China & the Hidden Debt Crisis in the Provinces

The Sovereign Debt Crisis in China among the provisional governments is alive and well. The off-balance sheet government liabilities in the regions amounted to an estimated 40 trillion yuan which is almost $6 trillion. Some are calling this a “gigantic credit risk” which is a hidden liability. This represents 60% of  GDP which bypasses the debt-to-GDP ratio set by the central government on the provinces. They have created financial vehicles called LGFVs. Beijing has focused on shadow banks, regulatory loopholes, and hidden bad loans. They have curbed the shadow banking and brought the BitCoin outflow down. However, the Beijing government has only been able to reduce the credit risks associated with LGFVs marginally. The current view is that it will take China up to a decade or more to deal with the problem of LGFVs, as we enter this debt crisis cycle between 2019 and 2021, the pressure will build much sooner.

Nevertheless, we see that this debt crisis is what is holding back China short-term. The 3rd quarter GDP growth for 2018 came in well below expectations. Once this adjustment is addressed, we will still see China emerge as the Financial Capital of the World after 2032.

Market Talk- October 18, 2018

A weak session for much of core Asia, with almost all markets falling from the opening. Sadly, it is China that leads the way adown again. Many are speculating that it is relation to the FED Minutes and their continued appetite to raise rates which pressures all currencies favouring the USD. The Shanghai index traded weak all day and even closed on its lows down almost 3%. There is a lot of talk of large USD Call Options being bought at the 7 and 7.2 area, as the CNY plays with the 6.94 region. As the defence appears to be unrelenting so the pressure builds on stocks, but all eyes will be on the GDP release tomorrow. The Nikkei saw a similar pattern with prices dropping throughout the day. Investors are being schooled on capital flight and is exactly the opposite to the late 80’s/early 90’s when cash was pouring back home. Interesting that the Yen is losing its safe-haven status and fears that we see a huge trade off cannot be ruled out. The SENSEX was closed today, but still sees its currency loose small money in thin volume.

Europe held steady for much of the day, but then the constant frustration over Italian, Spanish and Portuguese budgets together with BREXIT headlines continue to scare markets. The possible BREXIT delay just proves to spook fears as uncertainty is one thing markets hate. Sterling was hit and eventually partnered by the Euro as Dollar strength continues to demand attention. these fears spread to the peripheral bond markets where Italian BTP’s and Greek GGB’s lost 14 and 12 basis points respectively. This move has taken 10yr BTP’s wider by 90bp over the month to 3.68%. The BTP sell-off also hit Italian bank shares on fears of a possible downgrade following the budget proposal and talk that investors are moving money out of the country. The EU requested more of an explanation late this afternoon resulting in further selling. Given so much worry and concerns about both short and long term future large ticket items are grinding to a halt. The purchases of real estate and even autos are declining almost monthly and this is having a negative impact on the industries related. Volumes are dropping an markets are declining, the absence of fresh money will exaggerate these price movements and just shift the burden onto clearers as margins are increased. When faced with these conditions I would consider trading half my normal size and double my stop limits.

US futures were edging lower even before cash opened and the selling just accelerated when cash did open. Again, it was tech that led us lower with early losses of around 2.5% as profit-taking remains the key for the month. Tensions are also building between Saudi and the USA as this evening we hear the news that Steve Mnuchin has also pulled out of the investment conference that Saudi were to host. Treasury yields are lower as the flight is now back into fixed-income given recent volatility. We see that the curve has steepened slightly as investors show appetite for short-term paper over the long end. This is probably also driven by international demand for the currency and so is money being parked rather than invested, for the moment anyway! Looking like we will have to wait for next weeks earnings when we see numbers from Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft to turn sentiment around.

Japan 0.14%, US 2’s 2.87% (-2bp), US 10’s 3.17% (-3bp), US 30’s 3.36% (-1bp), Bunds 0.41% (-5bp), France 0.79% (-2bp), Italy 3.68% (+14bp), Turkey 17.61% (+24bp), Greece 4.40% (+12bp), Portugal 2.02% (+8bp), Spain 1.72% (+8bp) and Gilts 1.54% (-3bp). Interesting that the Italy/Bund spread widened 19bp today as many still see Germany as a flight to quality!?

Why Parliamentary Systems Pose a Terrible Threat to Society

COMMENT: I read your piece that parliamentary governments are far more dangerous than your American system because it allows minorities to gain the upper hand and rule a country. That is clearly the case here in Germany. Merkel does not have the majority yet she leads the country and Europe.

Thank you for your in-depth analysis


REPLY: All you have to do is look at Adolf Hitler. He was the leader of the right-wing National Socialist German Workers Party (called “the Nazi Party” for short). It was, by 1933, one of the strongest parties in Germany, even though — reflecting the country’s multiparty system — the Nazis had won only a plurality of 33% of the votes in the 1932 elections to the German Reichstag. This is the danger I am speaking about. The Nazis Party impacted all of Europe yet it too had never won a majority in Germany. This is the danger of a parliamentary system. It should be MAJORITY rules only! In France, you keep going to a run-off until you get down to two candidates.

With respect to Merkel, there are more people who wanted her to leave than to stay. In fact, she won less than Hitler.

Canadian Oil Falls to Under $20 a Barrel Because of Environmentalists

Will Elections ever be Valid Any More?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have stated that you believe Kennedy was assassinated by the US Intelligence community. Given all this stuff with Comey, FBI, CIA, and NSA all conspiring against Trump, do you think that the real risk of interfering with our elections is not the Russians but closer to home? Is this a practice that always takes place that we are just suddenly becoming aware of these days?

Thank you

see you in Orlando


ANSWER: Absolutely. It is being called Spygate and it is very disturbing. The Democrats did absolutely everything to put Hillary in office. They thought they won. They had the press in their pocket like CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post leading a host of others. We have to realize that Democracy is dead. I really do fear that Trump will be the LAST democratically elected president. What comes after Trump is not going to be warm and endearing.


Politicians have been rigging elections since ancient times. There can be no greater example of political corruption that required desperate reform than the calendar. Cato or the more moderate Cicero both criticized Julius Caesar who became pontifex max (high priest) taking charge of the calendar. The Romans used the moon calendar but knew it was incorrect and thus it required adjustments by inserting days. The corruption degenerated to such a point that elections could be postponed by the insertion of days. This realization led to bribing the high priest to even insert months to affect the political elections. This is why Julius Caesar revised the calendar to eliminate the political corruption. Moreover, interest rates would rise during elections because of the amount of money being paid out in bribing votes.

In mid-April 2018, the report that the U.S. had 3.5 million more registered voters than “live adults” originated with a National Review article of 11 August 2017 that built on information compiled by Judicial Watch’s Election.  Some have criticized this saying it is misleading since the information was compiled from only 462 counties in 38 states, yet the entire U.S. comprises over 3,000 counties in fifty states. At the same time, they pretend to be fact-checkers. Many of those other counties might well have had substantially fewer registered voters on their rolls than adult residents who are eligible to vote. This type of analysis is really biased in and of itself. All polls are conducted as samples not checking every single county. Those claiming such criticism are biased themselves.

Nevertheless, the findings come from Judicial Watch’s Election Integrity Project are important. The group looked at data from 2011 to 2015 produced by the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, along with data from the federal Election Assistance Commission. While those who try to shoot a whole in this study claiming they did not do every state miss the point. Trump won the national popular vote excluding California. The claim that Hillary really won the election turns exclusively on California which has 11 counties with more registered voters than actual voters. In fact, 10 of those counties voted heavily for Hillary Clinton. Los Angeles County, whose more than 10 million people make it the nation’s most populous county, had 12% more registered voters than live ones, some 707,475 votes. That’s a huge number of possible votes in an election. California’s San Diego County earns the grand prize for political corruption. San Diego has 138% registration which translates into 810,966 ghost voters.

Bernie Sanders went to see Obama because he should have won California but they stole the votes from Bernie to hand it to Hillary. Obama told him to suck-it-up and take one for the team. ONLY after that meeting did Bernie concede. In the 2016 presidential election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the state of California by more than 3.,4 million votes. We cannot say that the election was conclusively a victory for Hillary given what took place regarding Bernie. We just cannot definitively say one way or the other. This is why Stalin’s words ring so true.

The same story exists in Ohio and Chicago has been notorious for dead people still finding a way to vote. They have been known as the States of the Walking Dead. Yes, that was alleged in the 2016 election. People are clueless when it comes to election fraud. During the 1928 primary election, shootings and bombings were used to frighten and eliminate opponents. That election in Chicago saw two political figures killed and 62 bombings. It was called the “Pineapple Primary,” using the slang term “pineapple” for a grenade. They will use violence to prevent anyone from voting for anti-Democratic candidates.

When I warn that Trump may be the LAST really elected president between now and 2032, this is based upon a backdrop of rigging elections to keep the corruption in place. They have been rigging elections since the dawn of time. The 2016 election was an all-out war and they lost even with rigging California. They rigged the election in Scotland. Tony Blair in Britain wants another BREXIT vote so they can do a better job at rigging it again.

There are no real elections anymore – only when they actually didn’t elect to lose as in 2016 or BREXIT.