All posts in " Interest Rates "

Rising Interest Rates

By admin / February 22, 2018

While the stock market crashed as the pundit looked in their bag to try to come up with an excuse, they blamed rising inflation and interest rates. Yet, nobody is really paying attention to the underlying trend. The cost of carrying debt has been rising gradually and there are noticeable measurable impacts that the pundits are […]


Short v Long-Term Rates

By admin / February 16, 2018

QUESTION: Hi Mr Armstrong, I have read somewhere that you think that interest rates will go up higher than expected and at faster pace. I don’t understand its relations with bonds. Also your opinion seems to be in clear contrast to everyone else who thinks it will go up slowly over the next few years. If […]


Counter Party Risk – The Truth

By admin / February 12, 2018

Counter-Party Risk   Last week (2nd of February, 2018) ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority) published the results of its second EU wide stress test for CCP’s (Central “Clearing” Counterparties). These tests are conducted under EMIR (European Markets Infrastructure Regulations) and were first published back in April 2016. There are sixteen CCP’s currently under this […]


Source for the History of Interest Rates

By admin / February 8, 2018

QUESTION: Hello Martin: I was quoting you while speaking to a friend from a similar recent post where you stated that interest rates were at 5,000-year lows. They asked me where you got data going back 5,000 years and of course, I was at a loss to explain. So my question is: does such actual […]


The Yield Curve

By admin / January 25, 2018

QUESTION: At the Institutional WEC session in 2016, you forecast that rates would rise but that the long-end would produce a positive yield for the next two years at least. Are we coming to an end of that forecast? ANSWER: The new Institutional service is being expanded currently. Our hedging model positions have been added […]


Denmark Central Warns Next Financial Crisis is Coming

By admin / December 5, 2017

The Danish Central Bank has come out to warn that there is another financial crisis ahead. The central bank identified several indicators that point to growing risks from its analysis perspective. It is recommending that the banks in Denmark begin to raise their capital risk buffer. The primary concern centers on household credit where banks have lent […]


ECB Negative Rate Experiment May Lead to the Worst Financial Crisis in Modern History

By admin / September 27, 2017

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your proposition that the quantity of money theory is dead seems to be a true earth shattering perspective. It certainly disproves the Austrian School and the events post 2008 support your statement. The European Central Bank is supposed to traditionally pursue the goal of monetary stability. The Germans have followed the Austrian […]


Rogoff Tells Central Banks More Negative Interest Rates Will Be Needed

By admin / August 19, 2017

Kenneth Rogoff,  the Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is stuck in a time warp where he cannot think out of the box even once. He is telling the central banks that the next recession they will have to resort to negative interest rates and they should prepare now. Despite the fact that negative rates have […]


Bonds & Stocks Rally – What’s Going On?

By admin / June 4, 2017

This coming week is what we would call in horse racing a trifecta with former FBI director James Comey’s testimony, the U.K. election, and the ECB monetary-policy meeting. Then our capital flow models seem to be picking up European buying of both US shares and bonds taking advantage of a rally in the Euro. The […]


Interest Rates Up & Bonds Up?

By admin / May 26, 2017

While the Fed may be raising rates, there is still a flight to quality underway that is giving a bid to US Treasury issues. Low Treasury yields may remain the norm even if the Federal Reserve raises rates again. At about 2.25%, 10-year yields have dropped to 2017 lows, even with the central bank signaling an […]

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