Down & Dirty for the Dow? Feb. or March Low?

We have two Weekly Bearish Reversals in play today. The first is a key level at 15994 and the second is short-term at 15942. Certainly, a closing beneath both will warn that the Dow may break to test under the 14000 level going into as late as the week of February 22 near-term and possibly extending into March.

The Monthly Bearish Reversal will come into play if we break and that lies at 13937. This is the number that would mark a more sustainable break to the downside rather than a short-term correction. So pay attention to this number for this defines the broader-term for now. We also have a Monthly Bearish Reversal at 16015.  This is short-term. The Monthly Bearish Reversal that would signal a bear market trend into 2017 would be a Monthly closing BELOW 12470. This is where we draw the line in the sand for this move. Because March would be 10 months down from the May 2015 intraday high, that potential remains in play.

Using our What-If models, if we manage to break and test the 13000 area, then the corresponding Monthly Bullish would be generated at about the 16505 to 16590 level. From a timing perspective, the final intraday low could extend into March if we elect both of these Weekly Bearish Reversals today. So pay attend and get ready to rock and roll.