QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; At the WEC you said stay in cash not debt. You also said the stock market would dive in the first quarter the turn back up. I have followed the reversals all the way up and caught probably 80% of the move. Thank you. My question is simply are knocking of heaven’s door? Is it time to breakout or are we consolidating? I have found the Socrates preview for attendees a real asset for it has no agenda but forecasting.
B from UK
ANSWER: Well put. Stay in mostly cash, far away from fixed income. Yes, we are knocking on heaven’s door as they say in the Dow. The GMW has done a pretty good job for this rally. The Daily Bullish Reversal in the Dow that is important stands at 18137.50. We reached 18167,63 intraday, but could not close about that Reversal. It is possible to break through to new highs on the cash index. However, to do so we need that daily closing just to test the former high established last May at 18351.36. We need to exceed that high here in 2016 to imply we will continue to push higher.
Nevertheless, it is never wise to ANTICIPATE such breakouts because that is how people buy the high and lose a fortune. A daily close above 18010 will help warn that we may press high for a day. Keep in mind we are at the threshold in many markets. If we press higher after April, then we can see an early rally into June/July. But lift-off still appears to be next year in almost everything.
The issue seems to be CONFIDENCE. That must crack, and when it does, this will be confirmed by the breakout in everything.