Just the other day, Patrick Calvar, head of the General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI), France’s equivalent of MI5 or the CIA, warned that in the aftermath of last year’s terrorist attacks on Paris, any further Islamic attacks might lead to a new French civil war. The total French population is 63.9 million people of which almost 10% are Muslim — 6.13 million.
The Nice attack that killed about 73 people on Bastille Day (French Independence Day), will undoubtedly further the support for the extreme right wing in European politics. Additionally, it will add support to BREXIT as PM May was sympathetic in regard to closing the borders for this very reason. We will see Pen surge more now in the polls and Hollande, who was at a whopping 11% approval rating, may fall below 10%. This will have further impact upon the diminishing approval rating of Merkel in Germany as well.
Our models have warned that the Schengen free movement agreement, the cornerstone of the EU, would come to an end. Last December, we warned our models were showing that the Schengen Agreement was on the verge of extinction. This is exactly how that will unfold. Everything is connected and as our models rise for civil unrest in Europe, which is the origin of revolution, much will change. Politicians simply have no idea how trends are set in motion. You do not allow these refugees into Europe while the economy is declining and unemployment among the youth is over 60% in parts of the EU. This is just insanity.
Understanding how things unfold is absolutely essential. Human nature is the common denominator. If you press the same buttons, you will get the same response. On the night of November 9, 1938, violence against Jews broke out across Germany. While it appeared to be an unplanned spontaneous event erupting from anger over the assassination of a German official in Paris at the hands of a Jewish teenager, there was something more behind the curtain. Indeed, the German propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels and other Nazis carefully organized the event and the assassination was the match.
In just two days, over 250 synagogues were burned, over 7,000 Jewish businesses were trashed and looted, dozens of Jewish people were killed, and Jewish cemeteries, hospitals, schools, and homes were looted while police and fire brigades stood by. This spontaneously appearing event became known as Kristallnacht, the “Night of Broken Glass,” for the shattered glass from the store windows that littered the streets. Without question, we must respect that with the economy down, as it was in Germany at that time falling back from 1937 as many people feared round-two of the Great Depression was upon them, the economic decline in Europe with these attacks is creating a tinder box ready to explode. This same set of circumstances led to the chaos in Germany. When the economy is down, people want to blame someone. This time it will be Muslims.
The morning after Kristallnacht, 30,000 German Jewish men were arrested for the “crime” of simply being Jewish and were sent to concentration camps. Businesses owned by Jews were not allowed to reopen unless non-Jews managed them. Curfews were placed on Jews, limiting the hours of the day they could leave their homes.
There are 11,000 Muslims who are on the watch list in France for connection to ISIS. This is an impossible number of people to keep track of. This deadly attack in Nice illustrates the crisis in France and the risk that the tensions will rise.