US to Sell Off its Strategic Emergency Oil Reserves

The US government plans to sell half of the Strategic Emergency Oil Reserves and gasoline. The days of OPEC embargoes of the 1970s are now long past. The government plans to increase its budget for the financial year by $500 million. Therefore, over the next decade, the government wants to increase financial leeway by as much as $16.6 billion. With the US at a net exporter level and the shift toward electric cars, it becomes questionable if we need the Strategic Emergency Oil Reserves any more.

We still see support at the $32 level on a yearly closing basis. To stabilize, we need Crude to close above the 2016 high of $54.51. Both the oscillators as well as our Energy models imply that the high is in place for the near-term in real value. As long as Crude hold above the $32 level on an annual closing basis, then moving forward in time, new highs in nominal terms becomes possible but not in real value terms.