Trump has said that if he left office, the stock market would decline. Those who are against Trump have actually made comments like: “It’s a ridiculous remark — the kind of thing a Latin American dictator or a Middle Eastern strongman would say to keep supporters in line.” This was carried by CNBC and all this is, is opinion and they then market that as fact. We cannot address such issues from a personal opinion perspective. Why have I said it would create volatility and disrupt the world economy? Simply said, history repeats.
It is pointless to offer my opinion and then say it is better than anyone else. The famous saying in politics is that Everyone has an opinion the same as an asshole. That is probably the bluntest statement on the subject I have ever heard. The only thing we can do is look at what happened when Nixon was subjected to impeachment. Taking down Nixon had a profound impact and created the worst economic recession since the Great Depression. Paul Volcker commented economically on what happened with the Nixon impeachment – “[I]t was not until the events of 1974 and 1975, when a recession sprung on an unsuspecting world with an intensity unmatched in the post-World War II period, that the lessons of the ‘New Economics’ were seriously challenged.” (see Rediscovery of the Business Cycle)
So will the impeachment of Donald Trump really screw up the world economy? Absolutely!!!!! Pence as President would reverse just about every policy. World trade would go into turmoil. Taxes would start to rise again. The reason the market would DECLINE is rather simple – CONFIDENCE would decline!!!!!!!! Anyone who pretends you can remove any president by impeachment without disruption to the economy is plain and simple not someone who understands history, markets, or the economy. The Clinton impeachment was more of a slap on the wrist. Nobody expected him to actually be removed from office.
The Clinton Impeachment was held off as to not impact the elections so they waited until December, which is not the case right now. They are pushing impeachment to undermine the Republicans so the Democrats can take charge and then remove Trump. Nobody expected Clinton to be removed from office so it was more of a sideshow. The attempt to go after Trump is entirely different. This is the Deep State trying to take back control. As stated, Cohen’s lawyer expressly avoids saying that his client said anything. The plea was written by the prosecutor and Cohen agreed because it is unlikely to actually be a crime and is a novel application of the law.
Even the Nixon impeachment was about the Rule of Law and a coverup. Clinton committed perjury which was a crime he actually did before a Grand Jury for which prison would be imposed. Even Martha Stewart was sent to prison for lying to a government agent not even under oath. Clinton committed perjury before the Grand Jury. That he too could have gone to prison for 5 years. Even though the Republicans hated Clinton, there was restraint and nobody wanted to actually remove a president from office.
What we are dealing with here is the CONFIDENCE in government as a whole, which our models confirmed peaked in 2015.75. The only thing Trump can do is ride it out and go to the Supreme Court. So buckle up is this is what they try to put together now.