China’s manufacturing sector lost momentum in March due to weak export orders, slowing the country’s economic recovery from COVID-19 policies. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in March from 51.6 in February, which was the first monthly activity expansion in seven months. However, China’s economy showed signs of recovery in the first two months of the year, and the GDP is expected to have grown around 4.0% year-on-year in Q1, led by a pickup in consumption and infrastructure investment.
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
Some economic news from last night:
Services PMI (Mar) increased from 54.2 to 55.0
AIG Manufacturing Index (Mar) increased from -6.4 to 5.6
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision increased from 4.75% to 5.25%
Some economic news from today:
Nikkei Services PMI (Mar) decreased from 59.4 to 57.8
M3 Money Supply decreased from 9.6% to 9.0%
The Bank of England’s chief economist hinted at a possible interest rate rise in May to tackle high inflation, but stressed the Monetary Policy Committee faces a tight decision given financial market fragility. Financial markets expect interest rates to peak at 4.5% but are split close to 50:50 on whether the rate rise will come in May. However, MPC member Silvana Tenreyro disagreed with Pill’s view that rapid price increases are now a persistent feature of the UK economy and has voted against every interest rate rise since September. Tenreyro is not a swing voter on the committee and is leaving in June.
The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:
The major Europe currency markets had a negative day today:
Some economic news from Europe today:
Spanish Services PMI (Mar) increased from 56.7 to 59.4
German Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb) increased from 0.5% to 4.8%
German Services PMI (Mar) increased from 50.9 to 53.7
Italian Services PMI (Mar) increased from 51.6 to 55.7
Composite PMI (Mar) decreased from 53.1 to 52.2
Services PMI (Mar) decreased from 53.5 to 52.9
S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) increased from 52.0 to 53.7
Services PMI (Mar) increased from 52.7 to 55.0
The ADP released today indicated signs of an easing US workforce. The private sector advanced by 145,000 positions in March, well beneath February’s posting of 261,000 and analysts’ expectations of 210,000. “Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down,” ADP’s chief economist Nela Richardson stated. Pay rose at an annualized rate of 6.9% in March, beneath the 7.2% posted in February. Friday’s nonfarm payroll report, a closer measure analyzed by the Federal Reserve, is now expected to show payroll growth of 238,000 for the month, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%.
US Market Closings:
Canada Market Closings:
Brazil Market Closing:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
The above data was collected around 11:21 EST on Wednesday
The above data was collected around 11:28 EST Wednesday.
Japan 0.473% (+7.1bp), US 2’s 3.70% (-0.130%), US 10’s 3.2775% (-5.95bps); US 30’s 3.57% (-0.027%), Bunds 2.18% (-8.6bp), France 2.694% (-7.8bp), Italy 4.02% (-9.4bp), Turkey 10.07% (-16bp), Greece 4.119% (-11.5bp), Portugal 3.055% (-8bp); Spain 3.213% (-7.5bp) and UK Gilts 3.432% (-0.2bp).