Market Talk – October 9, 2023

ASIA:

China is expected to meet its 2023 economic target with a 5.1% GDP growth prediction for the fourth quarter, according to the Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. However, they also noted a slowdown in growth, with 4.6% growth in the third quarter, down from 6.3% in the second quarter. The booming service sector is driving economic growth, but challenges like a slumping property market, debt-ridden local governments, and a bleak export outlook are affecting the private sector’s confidence. Stronger countercyclical policies are needed for long-term stability.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 closed
• Shanghai decreased 13.55 points or -0.44% to 3,096.92
• Hang Seng increased 31.42 points or 0.18% to 17,517.40
• ASX 200 increased 16.00 points or 0.23% to 6,970.20
• Kospi closed
• SENSEX decreased 483.24 points or -0.73% to 65,512.39
• Nifty50 decreased 141.15 points or -0.72% to 19,512.35

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.00079 or -0.12% to 0.63751
• NZDUSD increased 0.001 or 0.17% to 0.59970
• USDJPY decreased 0.544 or -0.36% to 148.776
• USDCNY decreased 0.00698 or -0.10% to 7.30062

The above data was collected around 12.15 EST.

Precious Metals:

• Gold increased 16.82 USD/t oz. or 0.92% to 1,849.08
• Silver increased 0.145 USD/t. oz or 0.67% to 21.735

The above data was collected around 12:17 EST.

No economic news from last night:

No economic news from today:

EUROPE/EMEA:

Italy is urgently lobbying its European Union partners for more flexible budget rules due to concerns about widening bond spreads and potential disciplinary actions from Brussels if it deviates from its 2024 spending targets. The government is particularly worried about a forthcoming decision by the EU’s statistics arm Eurostat, which could increase next year’s fiscal deficit. Italy’s central bank has confirmed these risks. The EU’s fiscal rules, suspended since 2020 due to COVID-19, are set to return next year with amendments being negotiated. Italy is proposing leniencies, including favorable treatment for investments, increased defense spending, and aid to Ukraine. Italy’s latest proposal aims to protect it from a Eurostat review of how tax credits for green home improvements are accounted for.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:

• CAC 40 decreased 38.75 points or -0.55% to 7,021.40
• FTSE 100 decreased 2.37 points or -0.03% to 7,492.21
• DAX 30 decreased 101.66 points or -0.67% to 15,128.11

The major Europe currency markets had a negative day today:

• EURUSD decreased 0.00437 or -0.41% to 1.05423
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00347 or -0.28% to 1.22033
• USDCHF decreased 0.00187 or -0.21% to 0.90803

The above data was collected around 12:21 EST.

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) increased from -0.6% to -0.2%

US/AMERICAS:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced that he will be running for president as an independent, abandoning his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. This move raises the chances that he will play a spoiler role in the 2024 election. Kennedy made the announcement at an event in Philadelphia on October 9, where he criticized the “corruption” in the leadership of both political parties. In July, former President Donald Trump praised Kennedy, stating that he is a “very smart guy” and has hit a nerve with many Democrats. As polls show Trump’s increasing likelihood of winning the Republican presidential primary, the prospect of an independent run by Kennedy is gaining attention.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 197.07 points or 0.59% to 33,604.65
• S&P 500 advanced 27.16 points or 0.63% to 4,335.66
• Nasdaq advanced 52.9 points or 0.39% to 13,484.24
• Russell 2000 advanced 10.44 points or 0.6% to 1,755.99

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 108.26 points or 0.57% to 19,246.07
• TSX 60 advanced 5.11 points or 0.44% to 1,154.14

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 818.47 points or 0.72% to 114,988.1

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a green day today:

• Crude Oil increased 3.24 USD/BBL or 3.91% to 86.030
• Brent increased 3.105 USD/BBL or 3.67% to 87.685
• Natural gas increased 0.049 USD/MMBtu or 1.47% to 3.3870
• Gasoline increased 0.0504 USD/GAL or 2.30% to 2.2426
• Heating oil increased 0.0644 USD/GAL or 2.22% to 2.9652

The above data was collected around 12:28 EST.

• Top commodity gainers: Crude Oil (3.91%), Brent (3.67%), Gasoline (2.30%) and Heating Oil (2.22%)
• Top commodity losers: Steel (-1.31%), Bitumen (-4.13%), Palladium (-2.58%) and Soda Ash (-2.91%)

The above data was collected around 12:34 EST.

BONDS:

Japan 0.800% (-0.5bp), US 2’s 5.08% (+0.054%), US 10’s 4.782% (+6.6bps); US 30’s 4.94% (+0.055%), Bunds 2.773% (-11.8bp), France 3.374% (-11bp), Italy 4.847% (-7.7bp), Turkey 25.41% (+25bp), Greece 4.296% (-13.6bp), Portugal 3.547% (-9.1bp); Spain 3.931% (-8.4bp) and UK Gilts 4.479% (-9.7bp)

The above data was collected around 12:39 EST.