QUESTION: Today most analysts think higher interest rates are on the way. If the majority is always wrong how does that play into the expectations for higher interest rates? HP ANSWER: With the Federal Reserve stating they must “normalize” interest rates since 2014, of course, the majority will view that will be the trend. We […]
Extremely reliable sources from Behind the Curtain in Europe are becoming deeply concerned that Draghi at the ECB has created a monumental economic disaster he is just praying to holding off until he leaves next year. Interest rates are already starting to rise significantly in several important money and interbank markets. Both banks and debtors are […]
Draghi has realized that he has singlehandedly destroyed the European bond market. Besides the fact that it is illegal to short government bonds, he has come face to face with the stark reality that IF the ECB stops buying government bonds, there will be NO BID at these price levels. Interest rates will skyrocket dramatically. On […]
We are beginning to observe institutional investors withdrawing from bonds issued by companies whose credit ratings are in question. Many are also selling off other classes of bonds in anticipation of higher rates. The trend toward investing in high yielding debt mainly by pension funds has begun to reverse albeit gradually. Because of the low yields, […]
While the stock market crashed as the pundit looked in their bag to try to come up with an excuse, they blamed rising inflation and interest rates. Yet, nobody is really paying attention to the underlying trend. The cost of carrying debt has been rising gradually and there are noticeable measurable impacts that the pundits are […]
QUESTION: Hi Mr Armstrong, I have read somewhere that you think that interest rates will go up higher than expected and at faster pace. I don’t understand its relations with bonds. Also your opinion seems to be in clear contrast to everyone else who thinks it will go up slowly over the next few years. If […]
Counter-Party Risk Last week (2nd of February, 2018) ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority) published the results of its second EU wide stress test for CCP’s (Central “Clearing” Counterparties). These tests are conducted under EMIR (European Markets Infrastructure Regulations) and were first published back in April 2016. There are sixteen CCP’s currently under this […]
QUESTION: Hello Martin: I was quoting you while speaking to a friend from a similar recent post where you stated that interest rates were at 5,000-year lows. They asked me where you got data going back 5,000 years and of course, I was at a loss to explain. So my question is: does such actual […]
QUESTION: At the Institutional WEC session in 2016, you forecast that rates would rise but that the long-end would produce a positive yield for the next two years at least. Are we coming to an end of that forecast? ANSWER: The new Institutional service is being expanded currently. Our hedging model positions have been added […]
The Danish Central Bank has come out to warn that there is another financial crisis ahead. The central bank identified several indicators that point to growing risks from its analysis perspective. It is recommending that the banks in Denmark begin to raise their capital risk buffer. The primary concern centers on household credit where banks have lent […]
