The Dow for Today’s Close — April 1, 2016

QUESTION: Dear Martin,

I have been reading your work for several years. since you were in prison…I was able to download it from the internet and saved it all. I bought your Gold and Banking Analyses and read your daily pieces religiously. I was not able to attend the WEC as it appears you favor conferences in cold weather climates in the winter and I live in the Caribbean due to a medical condition involving an allergy to cold weather. So I know there are holes in my comprehension of your methodology because I wasn’t able to attend. What I still do not understand is are you suggesting that we should be invested in the DJIA at this point or are you saying that no bullish reversal was elected as the Dow did not close at/above 17750 at month’s end so it potentially has further to fall.

Thank you for your introducing me to an entirely new way of looking at the world.

ANSWER: We will try to hold the next conference in warmer weather. We are looking at Orlando, which is easily accessible for everyone, and the TSA is not so harsh there because everyone wants to see Mickey Mouse.

In the Dow, we have a cluster of Weekly Bullish Reversals starting at 17680, 17750, and 17846. You will notice that the top of the Downtrend Line stands at 17651.03. It appears that the Dow should create a temp high and we have a Directional Change Next Week. A closing today BELOW 17420 should signal a drop to retest support. I would expect a follow through to the upside only if we close above 17856 level.

It appears that it is still in a consolidation phase, but it is obviously firming up. There is a potential to break out to the upside with a closing above 17846 today, but that may not be instantaneous. Closing above 17750 may see some follow through into next week, but it would not likely be sustained. Closing above 17856 would imply that the Downtrend Line might start to provide support for any retest. That pattern would warn that we could make new highs and then pull back. This would clearly put a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve to focus on domestic policy objectives.

So pay attention here. The markets may put the maximum amount of pressure on everyone in every direction, not the least of which is the Federal Reserve.