Market Talk – February 1st, 2017

A nice bounce seen today for the Nikkei with a small recovery in stocks as the currency turned lower. The Nikkei closed up +0.6% with exporters benefiting from a weaker currency which assisted the rise seen for Mitsubishi Motors having revised full year guidance higher. China released PMI better than market had expected at 51.3 versus a 51.2 estimate. Shanghai exchange remains closed for New Year but HSI did open today with a 0.71% decline. In late trading all Asian futures are trading around +0.3% better on the evening.

Europe recovered also today with strong gains set for the DAX and CAC but only a small improvement for the IBEX. Strong performances were seen across the board with basic resources, manufacturing and banking all setting good returns. FTSE also underperformed core Europe but then the currency was stronger on the day. UK data was small mixed while in Europe the PMI released above expectation. Rumours around that the ECB is requesting UniCredit to book higher write-downs on its books than those already scheduled. We have the Bank of England tomorrow with no change forecast. In the UK we are expecting Downing Street to publish its White Paper on Brexit tomorrow.

US markets felt as though they were treading water, higher but not making much headway, whilst we awaited the result of the FED’s two day meeting. We started out on a very strong note helped by Apple’s performance (+7%) but then aided by a very strong ADP number. Estimates were forecast at +165k but when the +246k hit, the DOW rallied over 100 points. Mid afternoon we heard from the FED and although their outlook is positive they do not intend rate rises just yet. Stocks closed small changed yet await BOE tomorrow and the NFP’s on Friday (+175k expected and an unchanged rate of 4.7%).