Market Talk – September 20, 2019

ASIA:

US President Trump granted China more than 400 tariff exemptions to products such as coffee filters, plastic straws, dog leashes, patio torches, Christmas lights, and skateboards. A former ambassador to China states that this relationship with China is worse than during the Soviet-era, and deemed it the new “Cold War” as the conflict enters the 15^th month.

US VP Mike Pence reiterated President Trump’s stance that the US is suffering a 500 billion USD trade deficit with China, but also suffers the same in intellectual theft every year. “For too long one administration after another, Republican and Democrat administrations, were willing to accept extraordinary disadvantages to American workers and American jobs in the name of trade with China,” Pence said, according to CNBC.

The Bank of Japan has kept monetary policy on hold but hinted at possible action in October as it frets about a slowdown in the global economy.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• Shanghai increased 7.17 points or 0.24% to 3,006.45
• Kospi increased 11.17 or 0.54% to 2091.52
• ASX 200 increased 13.30 points or 0.20% to 6,730.80
• NIKKEI 225 increased 34.64 points or 0.16% to 22,079.09
• Hang Seng decreased 33.28 points or -0.13% to 26,435.67
• SENSEX increased 1921.15 points or 5.32% to 38,014.62

The major Asian currency markets had a negative day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.0022 or 0.32% to 0.6768
• NZDUSD decreased 0.0045 or 0.71% to 0.6256
• USDJPY decreased 0.0550 or 0.05% to 107.9450
• USDCNY decreased 0.0137 or 0.19% to 7.0871

Precious Metals:

• Gold increased 2.9 USD/t oz. or 0.19% to 1,501.41
• Silver increased 0.0045 USD/t. oz or 0.03%% to 17.7992

Some economic news from last night:

New Zealand:

• Credit Card Spending (YoY) increased from 5.1% to 6.0%

Japan:

• CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Aug) increased from -0.2% to 0.2%
• National Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 0.6% to 0.5%
• National CPI (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 0.5% to 0.3%
• Foreign Bonds Buying decreased from 727.2B to 476.0B
• Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks decreased from -161.5B to -971.9B

China:

• PBoC Interest Rate decreased from 4.25% to 4.20%

Some economic news from today:

India：

• FX Reserves, USD decreased from 429.61B to 428.96B

HongKong:

• CPI (YoY) (Aug) increased from 3.30% to 3.50%

EUROPE/EMEA:

The ECC confirmed that they received “non-papers” from the UK, but they were not in the form of a real proposal but more in the form of ideas. Meanwhile, hopes of a successful Brexit are looking slim as EU ministers have less than 11 days to come up with a complete solution. The Irish deputy prime minister has warned of “civil unrest” on the UK border if there is no deal. He also mentioned that there is still a “wide gap” between the UK and EU negotiations.

US President Trump has announced a new round of sanctions against Iran. He also mentioned their current financial situation as “broke,” and that going into Iran would be a “very easy decision.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated, “We’ve now cut off all source of funds to Iran.” US President Trump announced sanctions against the central bank of Iran, labelling it the “highest sanctions.” However, he ruled out a strike on Iran.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:

• CAC 40 increased 31.70 points or 0.56% to 5,690.78
• FTSE 100 decreased 11.50 points, or -0.16% to 7,344.92
• DAX increased 10.31 points or 0.08% to 12,468.01

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD decreased 0.0036 or 0.33% to 1.1004
• GBPUSD decreased 0.0035 or 0.28% to 1.2489
• USDCHF increased 0.0001 or 0.02% to 0.9929

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

• German PPI (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 0.1% to -0.5%
• German PPI (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 1.1% to 0.3%

Eurozone:

• Consumer Confidence (Sep) increased from -7.1 to -6.5

US/AMERICAS:

The NY Federal Reserve announced this Friday that they will continue their repo operation until October 10. The repurchase agreements will amount to up to $75 billion per day. Additionally, they plan to offer three two-week repo operations of up to $30 billion each round. The measure has some analysts questioning whether there is a pending liquidity crisis, despite the Federal Reserve claiming the measure is temporary to preserve the newly lowered target rate.

US-China trade discussions turned sour this Friday after the Chinese delegation cut their US visit short. The group had originally planned to visit farms in both Montana and Nebraska as a show of good faith. It now seems uncertain whether China will purchase more US agriculture products as originally promised. The Chinese delegation has yet to comment on their reasoning behind the abrupt end to their trip.

Americans pay more for prescription drugs than any other industrialized nation. President Trump has been working to implement price control on prescription medication, but has received backlash from members of his own party. In a rare moment, President Trump praised Speaker Pelosi for her proposal that would allow the government to fix prices for select prescriptions. “Let’s get it done in a bipartisan way!” Trump tweeted. However, her plan has a slim chance of passing the Senate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell referred to the idea as “socialist price controls” and vowed not to pass such a bill.

US Market Closings:

• The Dow declined 159.72 points or -0.59% to 26,935.07
• S&P 500 declined 14.72 points or -0.49% to 2,992.07
• Nasdaq declined 65.21 points or -0.80% to 8,117.67
• Russell 2000 declined 1.72 points or -0.11% to 1,559.76

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 41.34 points or 0.25% to 16,899.69
• TSX 60 advanced 1.89 points or 0.19% to 1,011.25

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advances 478.24 points or 0.46% to 104,817.40

ENERGY:

Crude oil continued its upward journey today on rising tensions in the Middle East and the latest sanctions on Iran. The latest research shows that OPEC has sufficient spare capacity to respond to supply shortages.

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 0.81 USD/BBL or 1.39% to 58.9355
• Brent increased 0.66 USD/BBL or 1.02% to 65.0263
• Natural gas decreased 0.016 USD/MMBtu or -0.63% to 2.5182
• Gasoline increased 0.0006 USD/GAL or 0.04% to 1.7005
• Heating oil increased 0.0052 USD/GAL or 0.26% to 2.0119
• Top commodity gainers: Crude Oil (1.39%), Orange Juice (1.52%), Palladium(1.10%), and Brent (1.02 %)
• Top commodity losers: Rubber (-3.53 %), Bitumen (-1.78%), Steel (-1.34%), and Ethanol (-0.73%)

The above data was collected around 12:30 pm EST on Friday.

BONDS:

Japan -0.21%(+2bp), US 2’s 1.72% (-74bps), US 10’s 1.77%(-0bps), US 30’s 2.21%(-84bps), Bunds -0.52% (-2bp), France -0.22% (-1bp), Italy 0.93% (+4bp), Turkey 14.45% (-117bp), Greece 1.34% (-4bp), Portugal 0.25% (-2bp), Spain 0.25% (-2bp) and UK Gilts 0.63% (-1bp).