Market Talk – March 6, 2023

ASIA:

Retail sales of vehicles in India jumped 16% to around 1.8 million units in February, helped in part by strong demand during the wedding season, an industry body of automobile dealers said on Monday, adding that festivals could push the sales higher in March. Sales have picked up in the last two months as chip shortages eased and automakers launched new models to tap into the demand ahead of the festival and wedding seasons. However, rising interest rates amid elevated inflation are seen as a sentiment dampener, with overall sales in February still below pre-Covid levels. Sales of two-wheelers advanced 15%, while those of three-wheelers jumped 81%, passenger vehicles 11%, tractors 14%, and commercial vehicles 17%, the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said in a statement. Auto sales numbers are keenly watched, as they are one of the key indicators to assess private consumption and carry more than 50% weightage in calculating the country’s economic growth.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 310.31 points or 1.11% to 28,237.78
• Shanghai decreased 6.37 points or -0.19% to 3,322.03
• Hang Seng increased 35.65 points or 0.17% to 20,603.19
• ASX 200 increased 45.00 points or 0.62% to 7,328.60
• Kospi increased 30.55 points or 1.20% to 2,462.62
• SENSEX increased 415.49 points or 0.69% to 60,224.46
• Nifty50 increased 117.10 points or 0.67% to 17,711.45

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.00322 or -0.48% to 0.67358
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00327 or -0.53% to 0.61893
• USDJPY increased 0.037 or 0.03% to 135.897
• USDCNY increased 0.04454 or 0.65% to 6.94074

Precious Metals:

• Gold decreased 4.26 USD/t oz. or -0.23% to 1,850.71
• Silver decreased 0.086 USD/t. oz or -0.40% to 21.155

Some economic news from last night:

South Korea:

CPI (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 5.2% to 4.8%

EUROPE/EMEA:

British construction activity grew at its fastest pace in nine months in February after two months of declines, as a rebound in commercial work and civil engineering helped offset a continued fall in housebuilding, a survey showed on Monday. The S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the construction sector jumped to 54.6 in February, up from 48.4 in January, its highest since May 2022 and well above economists’ average expectation of 49.1 in a Reuters poll. Britain’s housing market has slowed in recent months, hurt by a dent in demand for new homes as higher borrowing costs and a surge in the cost of living deterred prospective buyers. Mortgage lender Nationwide reported last week that house prices in February were 1.1% down on a year earlier – the biggest annual fall since 2012 – and had fallen 3.7% since their peak in August 2022.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

• CAC 40 increased 25.09 points or 0.34% to 7,373.21
• FTSE 100 decreased 17.32 points or -0.22% to 7,929.79
• DAX 30 increased 75.19 points or 0.48% to 15,653.58

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00506 or 0.48% to 1.06826
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00047 or -0.04% to 1.20353
• USDCHF decreased 0.00376 or -0.40% to 0.93204

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

CPI (MoM) (Feb) increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

Euro Zone:

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) increased from -1.6% to 0.3%

UK:

Construction PMI (Feb) increased from 48.4 to 54.6

US/AMERICAS:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to address Congress this week. Lawmakers want to hear that the central bank is committed to waning inflation, albeit in a way that prevents a hard landing. Powell will address the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, followed by the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the markets are pricing in a 50 bps rate hike for March. The Cleveland Fed’s tracker predicts inflation will fall to 5.4% in March compared to February’s 6.2% reading. However, the same index expects core inflation to increase from 5.5% to 5.7%.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 40.08 points or 0.12% to 33,431.05
• S&P 500 advanced 2.75 points or 0.07% to 4,048.39
• Nasdaq declined 13.27 points or -0.11% to 11,675.74
• Russell 2000 declined 28.51 points or -1.48% to 1,899.76

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite declined 66.78 points or -0.32% to 20,514.8
• TSX 60 declined 3.49 points or -0.28% to 1,234.73

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 834.33 points or 0.8% to 104,700.32

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 0.273 USD/BBL or 0.34% to 79.953
• Brent increased 0.061 USD/BBL or 0.07% to 85.891
• Natural gas decreased 0.4148 USD/MMBtu or -13.79% to 2.5942
• Gasoline increased 0.0089 USD/GAL or 0.32% to 2.7593
• Heating oil decreased 0.0651 USD/GAL or -2.23% to 2.8480

The above data was collected around 11:27 EST on Monday              

• Top commodity gainers: HRC Steel (4.37%), Soybeans (0.98%), Rhodium (2.54%) and Feeder Cattle (1.34%)
• Top commodity losers: Oat (-8.72%), Palm Oil (-1.59%), Natural Gas (-13.79%) and Heating Oil (-2.23%)

The above data was collected around 11:32 EST Monday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.504% (+0bp), US 2’s 4.88% (+0.015%), US 10’s 3.9616% (-0.14bps); US 30’s 3.89% (+0.002%), Bunds 2.728% (+1.4bp), France 3.223% (+1.8bp), Italy 4.55% (+1.2bp), Turkey 11.62% (+40bp), Greece 4.502% (+2.1bp), Portugal 3.613% (+2.1bp); Spain 3.751% (+1bp) and UK Gilts 3.848% (-0.7bp).        

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