Market Talk – August 23, 2023

ASIA:

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das mentioned that vegetable prices in India are starting to decrease and are expected to continue declining from September onward. High vegetable and cereal prices led to a retail inflation surge of 7.44% in July, the highest in 15 months. Despite potential geopolitical tensions affecting food prices, the outlook for cereal prices remains positive. The RBI is committed to preventing persistent and widespread inflation across sectors and has raised rates by 250 basis points since May 2022 to control rising prices. The central bank’s focus remains on aligning inflation with the mandated medium-term target of 4% set by the Monetary Policy Committee.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 153.55 points or 0.48% to 32,010.26
• Shanghai decreased 41.93 points or -1.34% to 3,078.40
• Hang Seng increased 54.91 points or 0.31% to 17,845.92
• ASX 200 increased 26.80 points or 0.38% to 7,148.40
• Kospi decreased 10.24 points or -0.41% to 2,505.50
• SENSEX increased 213.27 points or 0.33% to 65,433.30
• Nifty50 increased 47.55 points or 0.25% to 19,444.00

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.00504 or 0.78% to 0.64714
• NZDUSD increased 0.00355 or 0.60% to 0.59785
• USDJPY decreased 1.233 or -0.85% to 144.647
• USDCNY decreased 0.01375 or -0.19% to 7.28941

Precious Metals:

• Gold increased 21.37 USD/t oz. or 1.13% to 1,918.84
• Silver increased 0.878 USD/t. oz or 3.75% to 24.268

Some economic news from last night:

Japan：

au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI increased from 53.8 to 54.3

New Zealand:

Core Retail Sales (QoQ) decreased from -1.6% to -1.8%

Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2) increased from -1.6% to -1.0%

Some economic news from today:

Singapore:

Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) decreased from 4.20% to 3.80%

CPI (YoY) (Jul) decreased from 4.5% to 4.1%

EUROPE/EMEA:

In August, consumer confidence in the Eurozone declined as indicated by a decrease of 0.9 points compared to July, according to data from the European Commission. The flash estimate revealed that consumer morale in the Eurozone dropped to -16.0 in August from -15.1 in July. This decrease was contrary to economists’ expectations, as they had anticipated an increase to -14.3. Similarly, consumer sentiment in the wider European Union also declined by 0.9 points to reach -17.0.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:

• CAC 40 increased 5.74 points or 0.08% to 7,246.62
• FTSE 100 increased 49.77 points or 0.68% to 7,320.53
• DAX 30 increased 22.79 points or 0.15% to 15,728.41

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00217 or 0.20% to 1.08657
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00053 or -0.04% to 1.27247
• USDCHF decreased 0.00206 or -0.23% to 0.87804

Some economic news from Europe today:

France:

HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Aug) increased from 45.1 to 46.4

HCOB France Services PMI (Aug) decreased from 47.1 to 46.7

Germany:

HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Aug) increased from 38.8 to 39.1

HCOB Germany Services PMI (Aug) decreased from 52.3 to 47.3

Euro Zone:

HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Aug) increased from 42.7 to 43.7

S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) decreased from 48.6 to 47.0

HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Aug) decreased from 50.9 to 48.3

UK：

S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI decreased from 50.8 to 47.9

S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI decreased from 45.3 to 42.5

S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI decreased from 51.5 to 48.7

US/AMERICAS:

In July 2023, retail sales in the US increased by 0.6% from June and 2.0% from the same period last year, according to the Census Bureau. The biggest increases were seen in sales of building materials and garden equipment (2.2%) and motor vehicles and parts (1.4%). Sales of clothing stores also increased by 1.0%, while sales of sporting goods, hobbies, books, and musical instruments rose by 1.5%. The data suggests that consumer spending remains resilient, despite higher inflation and interest rates. The increase in retail sales is a positive sign for the US economy, which has been facing challenges due to the ongoing pandemic and supply chain disruptions.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 184.15 points or 0.54% to 34,472.98
• S&P 500 advanced 48.46 points or 1.1% to 4,436.01
• Nasdaq advanced 215.16 points or 1.59% to 13,721.03
• Russell 2000 advanced 19.2 points or 1.04% to 1,870.03

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 188.58 points or 0.96% to 19,879.79
• TSX 60 advanced 11.34 points or 0.96% to 1,189.42

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 1,978.58 points or 1.7% to 118,134.59

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a negative day today:

• Crude Oil decreased 0.776 USD/BBL or -0.97% to 78.864
• Brent decreased 0.876 USD/BBL or -1.04% to 83.154
• Natural gas decreased 0.0685 USD/MMBtu or -2.68% to 2.4915
• Gasoline decreased 0.0334 USD/GAL or -1.20% to 2.7557
• Heating oil decreased 0.0139 USD/GAL or -0.44% to 3.1249

The above data was collected around 12:58 EST on Wednesday

• Top commodity gainers: Silver (3.75%), Coffee (3.89%), Cotton (1.93%) and Sugar (1.97%)
• Top commodity losers: Gasoline (-1.20%), Brent (-1.04%), Crude Oil (-0.97%) and Natural Gas (-2.68%)

The above data was collected around 13:09 EST Wednesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.677% (+0.7bp), US 2’s 4.95% (-0.085%), US 10’s 4.2095% (-11.85bps); US 30’s 4.31% (-0.103%), Bunds 2.505% (-15bp), France 3.031% (-13.8bp), Italy 4.155% (-15bp), Turkey 18.44% (+31bp), Greece 3.847% (-14.2bp), Portugal 3.231% (-14.9bp); Spain 3.532% (-14.3bp) and UK Gilts 4.457% (-19bp)