Market Talk – September 25, 2023

ASIA:

S&P Global Ratings has kept India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year at 6%. This decision is based on factors such as the global economic slowdown, increased risk of below-average monsoons, and the delayed impact of interest rate hikes. Although the agency views the recent surge in vegetable prices as temporary, it has raised its full fiscal year retail inflation forecast from 5% to 5.5% due to higher global oil prices.

S&P also maintains that India’s economy will grow at a rate of 6.9% in both the 2024-25 and 2025-26 fiscal years. The agency notes that India’s consumption growth and capital expenditure remained strong in the June quarter. Regarding the Asia Pacific region, S&P characterizes it as a “multi-speed region” and has slightly increased its growth forecast for this area.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 276.21 points or 0.85% to 32,678.62
• Shanghai decreased 16.82 points or -0.54% to 3,115.61
• Hang Seng decreased 328.16 points or -1.82% to 17,729.29
• ASX 200 increased 7.70 points or 0.11% to 7,076.50
• Kospi decreased 12.37 points or -0.49% to 2,495.76
• SENSEX increased 14.54 points or 0.02% to 66,023.69
• Nifty50 increased 0.30 points or 0.00% to 19,674.55

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.00212 or -0.33% to 0.64198
• NZDUSD increased 0.00016 or 0.03% to 0.59626
• USDJPY increased 0.464 or 0.31% to 148.834
• USDCNY increased 0.02037 or 0.28% to 7.31610

The above data was collected around 12.49 EST.

Precious Metals:

• Gold decreased 8.26 USD/t oz. or -0.43% to 1,916.73
• Silver decreased 0.417 USD/t. oz or -1.77% to 23.113

The above data was collected around 12:54 EST.

No economic news from last night:

Some economic news from today:

Singapore:

Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 3.80% to 3.40%

CPI (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%

EUROPE/EMEA:

The Russian rouble strengthened against the euro but remained stable against the dollar. This stability comes amid an expected increase in demand for roubles for end-of-month tax payments by companies. At the time of reporting, the rouble was trading at 96.24 against the dollar and had gained 0.6% against the euro, reaching 101.98. In contrast, the euro was at its lowest level against the dollar since March 16, reflecting the belief that the European Central Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates further, while the Federal Reserve has taken a more hawkish stance. Additionally, Russia announced the introduction of new export duties tied to the rouble-dollar exchange rate starting on October 1, lasting until the end of the next year. Russian stock indexes were down, with the dollar-denominated RTS index falling 0.5% to 995 points, and the rouble-based MOEX Russian index dropping 0.4% to 3,036 points.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:

• CAC 40 decreased 60.94 points or -0.85% to 7,123.88
• FTSE 100 decreased 59.92 points or -0.78% to 7,623.99
• DAX 30 decreased 151.80 points or -0.98% to 15,405.49

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD decreased 0.00632 or -0.59% to 1.05888
• GBPUSD decreased 0.0027 or -0.22% to 1.22110
• USDCHF increased 0.00515 or 0.57% to 0.91205

The above data was collected around 13:00 EST.

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German Business Expectations (Sep) increased from 82.7 to 82.9

German Current Assessment (Sep) decreased from 89.0 o 88.7

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep) decreased from 85.8 to 85.7

US/AMERICAS:

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom are set to participate in a Fox News debate on November 30th in Georgia, with Fox host Sean Hannity moderating. The 90-minute debate is being billed as a clash of America’s two dominant and starkly divided political philosophies. DeSantis is set to participate in the second Republican presidential primary debate on Wednesday, which Donald Trump is skipping.

Pharmacy chain Rite Aid is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy and close 400 to 500 stores, according to the Wall Street Journal. The company is negotiating the terms of a bankruptcy plan that could see a significant number of its more than 2,100 drugstores permanently close, with Rite Aid proposing to close as many as 500 stores in bankruptcy and either sell or let creditors take over its remaining operations. The Philadelphia-based company operates more than 2,330 stores in 17 U.S. states, although it is much smaller than rivals such as Walgreens Boots Alliance and CVS Health. Rite Aid plans to file for bankruptcy protection as the company faces more than $3.3 billion in debt and over a thousand federal lawsuits over opioid sales.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 43.04 points or 0.13% to 34,006.88
• S&P 500 advanced 17.38 points or 0.4% to 4,337.44
• Nasdaq advanced 59.51 points or 0.45% to 13,271.32
• Russell 2000 advanced 7.74 points or 0.44% to 1,784.24

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 20.64points or 0.1% to 19,800.61
• TSX 60 advanced 1.53 points or 0.13% to 1,187.32

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa declined 112.83 points or -0.1% to 115,895.81

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a negative day today:

• Crude Oil decreased 0.434 USD/BBL or -0.48% to 89.596
• Brent decreased 0.188 USD/BBL or -0.20% to 93.082
• Natural gas decreased 0.0102 USD/MMBtu or -0.39% to 2.6268
• Gasoline decreased 0.0203 USD/GAL or -0.79% to 2.5415
• Heating oil decreased 0.0548 USD/GAL or -1.66% to 3.2514

The above data was collected around 13:03 EST.

• Top commodity gainers: Wheat (0.90%), Lumber (1.52%), Palm Oil (0.95%) and Oat (2.14%)
• Top commodity losers: Sugar (-2.67%), Cocoa (-2.32%), HRC Steel (-3.29%) and Silver (-1.77%)

The above data was collected around 13:09 EST.

BONDS:

Japan 0.733% (-1.3bp), US 2’s 5.13% (+0.011%), US 10’s 4.5314% (+9.14bps); US 30’s 4.65% (+0.127%), Bunds 2.803% (+6.7bp), France 3.347% (+6.2bp), Italy 4.697% (+10.7bp), Turkey 24.71% (+16bp), Greece 4.354% (+12.8bp), Portugal 3.544% (+3.9bp); Spain 3.873% (+6.4bp) and UK Gilts 4.326% (+7.6bp)

The above data was collected around 13:53 EST.