Market Talk – November 10, 2023

ASIA:

Prices are declining again in China, raising concerns about the possibility of deflation as households and businesses remain cautious about spending. State-controlled banks are injecting money into the construction of more factories, but the drop in prices may lead to a situation where companies and workers receive less money for their goods or work while facing heavy debts. In October, consumer prices in China decreased by 0.2 percent compared to the previous year, with falling food prices, particularly a 30 percent drop in pork prices, playing a significant role. This contrasts with the United States, where inflation has decreased, and Europe, which is still grappling with inflation.

The major Asian stock markets had mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 decreased 78.35 points or -0.24% to 32,568.11
• Shanghai decreased 14.31 points or -0.47% to 3,038.97
• Hang Seng decreased 308.03 points or -1.76% to 17,203.26
• ASX 200 decreased 38.40 points or -0.55% to 6,976.50
• Kospi decreased 17.42 points or -0.72% to 2,409.66
• SENSEX increased 72.48 points or 0.11% to 64,904.68
• Nifty50 increased 30.05 points or 0.15% to 19,425.35

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.00084 or -0.13% to 0.63566
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00036 or -0.06% to 0.58884
• USDJPY increased 0.214 or 0.14% to 151.554
• USDCNY increased 0.00865 or 0.12% to 7.30595

The above data was collected around 12:46 EST.

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 21.48 USD/t oz. or -1.10% to 1,936.71

Silver increased 0.347 USD/t. oz or -1.53%% to 22.273

The above data was collected around 12:59 EST.

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Some economic news from last night:

New Zealand：

Business NZ PMI (Oct) decreased from 45.3 to 42.5

No economic news from today:

EUROPE/EMEA:

Euro zone consumers have increased their inflation expectations for the next 12 months to 4%, according to a European Central Bank survey, posing a potential challenge for the ECB’s efforts to control prices. Although household inflation forecasts are inherently uncertain, they can impact wage demands, spending, and saving, influencing retail prices. The survey, conducted in September and released recently, revealed that the median respondent anticipated a 4.0% inflation rate in the next 12 months, up from 3.5% in August and reaching the highest level since spring. The ECB uses the survey to assess whether households trust its ability to bring inflation back to its 2% target over the medium term. Despite concerns, the survey indicated that respondents expected inflation to be 2.5% in three years, unchanged from the previous round but still above the ECB’s target.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:

•  CAC 40 decreased 68.62 points or -0.96% to 7,045.04
•  FTSE 100 decreased 95.12 points, or -1.28% to 7,360.55
•  DAX 30 decreased 118.15 points or -0.77% to 15,234.39

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00085 or 0.08% to 1.06745
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00074 or -0.06% to 1.22136
• USDCHF increased 0.00018 or 0.02% to 0.90288

The above data was collected around 13:09 EST.

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker increased from -0.1% to 0.1%

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) decreased from 4.1% to -4.2%

GDP (QoQ) (Q3) decreased from 0.2% to 0.0%

GDP (MoM) (Sep) increased from 0.1% to 0.2%

GDP (YoY) (Q3) remain the same at 0.6%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) increased from -0.5% to 0.0%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) increased from -0.7% to 0.1%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Sep) decreased from 0.3% to 0.0%

Trade Balance (Sep) increased from -15.52B to -14.29B

Trade Balance Non-EU (Sep) increased from -4.83B to -4.45B

US/AMERICAS:

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has announced new tax brackets and standard deductions for 2024. The tax brackets are shifting higher by about 5.4%, which is intended to avoid a phenomenon known as “bracket creep,” where taxpayers are pushed into higher-income brackets even though their purchasing power is essentially unchanged due to high inflation. The standard deduction, which reduces the amount of income you must pay taxes on, is claimed by a majority of taxpayers. It will rise to $29,200, up from $27,700 in 2024 for married couples filing jointly, amounting to a 5.4% bump. For individuals, the new maximum will be $14,600 for 2024, up from $13,850. Heads of households will see their standard deduction jump to $21,900 in 2024, up from $20,800. The IRS is increasing the tax brackets by about 5.4% for both individual and married filers across the different income spectrums. The top tax rate remains 37% in 2024.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 391.16 points or 1.15% to 34,283.1
• S&P 500 advanced 67.89 points or 1.56% to 4,415.24
• Nasdaq advanced 276.66 points or 2.05% to 13,798.11
• Russell 2000 advanced 18.09 points or 1.07% to 1,705.32

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 67.06 points or 0.34% to 19,654.47
• TSX 60 advanced 3.43 points or 0.29% to 1,184.04

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 1526.33 points or 1.28% to 120,560.47

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 1.717 USD/BBL or 2.27% to 77.457
• Brent increased 1.961 USD/BBL or 2.45% to 81.971
• Natural gas decreased 0.0105 USD/MMBtu or -0.35% to 3.0305
• Gasoline increased 0.045 USD/GAL or 2.08% to 2.2058
• Heating oil increased 0.061 USD/GAL or 2.24% to 2.7801

The above data was collected around 13:13  EST.

•   Top commodity gainers: Brent (2.45%), Crude Oil (2.27%), Heating Oil (2.24%), and Gasoline (2.08%)
•   Top commodity losers: Platinum (-2.09%), Orange Juice (-10.44%), Coffee (-2.82%), and Palladium (-2.16%)

The above data was collected around 13:20 EST.

BONDS:

Japan 0.849%(+0.9bp), US 2’s 5.05% (+0.032%), US 10’s 4.628%(-0.2bps); US 30’s 4.74% (-0.035%), Bunds 2.724% (+7bp), France 3.306% (+7.3bp), Italy 4.577% (+6.4bp), Turkey 26.95% (+27bp), Greece 3.982% (+7.1bp), Portugal 3.465% (+6.3bp), Spain 3.781% (+8.3bp) and UK Gilts 4.33% (+5.5bp).

The above data was collected around 13:24 EST.