Germany Moving into Recession

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you so much for coming to Germany. Your view is always the best, for it is not based, as you say, on personal opinion. I wish the government would listen and inform the politicians to adopt a new way of managing society.

H

ANSWER: Yes, I know what you mean. But as I have always said, after working and meeting with governments worldwide for over 40 years, they prefer to act in their own self-interest, defined as their personal power – not the benefit of the people. This illustration is of the German GDP in the Euro, followed by the timing array, and then expressed in US dollars.

Currency masks the real trends. I try to explain that, but as you know, most people in these meetings cannot grasp the concept. You are not common in government. There needs to be more like you. More than a simple one-dimensional view seems too complicated for them to understand. When I am gone, hopefully, they will be able to take what I have done without prejudice as to who developed it. That’s just the way it goes. They used to say a prophet is never accepted in his own land. Keynes was criticized in the 1920s. Marx was embraced only after he died.

As you can see, German GDP peaked in terms of real international value in 2007 with the Economic Confidence Model, and the Euro peaked in 2008. The high value of the Euro in 2008 reduced exports, and the recession began with that turning point on the ECM. The Pi Target on that wave was the precise day Greece turned to the IMF for a bailout, launching the European Debt Crisis.

German REAL GDP in international value terms will not bottom until 2030. The ECM turning point suggests that Germany is headed into a recession that overall will appear to bottom in nominal terms in 2028, but in real terms, it will extend into 2030.