Turkey – NATO – Russia and the Middle East

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You say you are not clairvoyant. However, you know more things than anyone geopolitically from there might be an assassination of Trump to Turkey will see to resurrect the Ottoman Empire. Some of us would like to know how you get so many things right when people think they are off the wall when you say them. It would be enlightening to listen to your response.

Thank you for all you do

Rob

ANSWER: Look, I think the difference is that people do not understand history and think that the past has no bearing on the future. History repeats because human nature never changes. In addition to a fast recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the macroeconomic policies in Turkey and high commodity prices have contributed to surging inflation even on a nominal basis, but then there has been significant currency inflation, and the US greenback has soared against the Turkish lira. This lethal combination has caused growing external imbalances that are intermixed with implicit liabilities.

As we can see, the US greenback has soared against the Turkish lira. Erdogan’s dream was to resurrect the Ottoman Empire, which ended when it was defeated and dissolved in 1908—1922. Now, with the economic conditions being deplorable, Erdogan needs an external enemy. The Arab nation-states are sympathetic toward Russia since they see that Israel is a protectorate of the United States. Erdogan is playing to the Arab world, and since Turkey has the most significant military force in the Middle East, he hopes to be seen as the savior and resurrect the Ottoman Empire, which just so happened to have included Israel.

If you have never been to Greece or Turkey, you are unaware that the hatred between these two nations dates back to Alexander the Great’s time. For Greece to even come out and make a statement that they can attack Turkey by surprise does not help the crisis.

Turkey will defend the Arabs against Israel, and the tensions between Greece and Turkey, both NATO countries, will lead to Turkey exiting this NATO alliance. They will join with Russia, which most of the Arab world supports. This is nothing new. This is merely how nation-states will always respond without exception.

So stay tuned for more fun and games. But when a country is in economic crisis, it needs an external enemy, and NATO offers nothing in return for their loyalty.