The Panic Cycle in September A Warning for the Future

QUESTION: Marty, it appears that the September panic was on the upside, and it also appears to be a turning point. It looks like it may be a high in the Dow and Gold on a closing basis. I must say, it’s far easier to see now that this election may be the last. Does making a panic to the upside and a high dovetail into a war scenario you have been warning about for the election?

Kerry

ANSWER: I laid out the risks in gold on the private blog. Yes, the Panic was to the upside (see Glossary), and you are correct; this does not bode well for the near future. A Panic to the Downside would have provided a buying opportunity in October, but this pattern is sending up a red flare. A Panic to the Upside is a clear warning that the pattern unfolding is very serious, and it indeed includes the high probability of major civil unrest that will hurt domestic markets as nobody will accept the outcome. The problem we have is what I warned about throughout this year. There remains a risk that our Neocons fear a Trump victory and are pushing for war before the Election.

Israel attacked a Russian airbase under the pretense that Iran dropped off supplies there for Hezbolla. Our office in UAE has reported that Russia has warned all Russians to get out of Israel ASAP. Meanwhile, Russia is turning up the heat and is Expanding in Ukraine. Zelensky sent a force to invade Russia in hopes that they would attack anything in NATO to claim Russia was the aggressor. Putin is not stupid.

Zelensky’s Victory Plan is to use long-range missiles to wage a full-scale war on Russia to destroy as much as possible prior to a NATO invasion. I have warned that Putin must reverse his position and take this war seriously as a NATO invasion or be overthrown by the Russian hardline Neocons. Our model targeted October for this, so we have just seen Putin reject peace negotiations. He has been forced to see reality. He has authorized glid bombs launched from aircraft, but he may also use the Father of All Bonds, which is the largest non-nuclear weapon that has the impact of a small nuke.

Our office in the UAE is reporting that while Israel attacked the Russian airbase, it seems like the people of Syria are split on whether they like Assad or not. The Kurds are against Hezbollah/Iran/Russia and were quite happy Israel took out Nazrellah. Iranian Khomani spoke to unite the Muslims against Israel. Our staff there commented that it seems like it’s going to kick off when Israel attacks Iran.

This weekend is Israel’s holiday, so it is normal to go quiet. However, Biden did respond to a question about whether attacking Iran’s energy facility is likely. He said he was in discussion with Israel, thereby confirming that the US is involved strategically. That was not very smart. That statement confirms to the Arab world that the American Neocons are involved.

The other side of this same coin is that Iran could also shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which would send energy prices sky-high in the West using oil as a weapon, as was the case during the 1970s. It was October 7th, 1973, when Iraq nationalized the holdings of the two U.S. oil companies operating in the Arab nation, Exxon and Mobil. They did so to show support for Egypt and Syria in their war against Israel. October 7th, 2023, was the Hammas attack on the Jewish holiday. We should expect attacks inside the USA on Monday, the 7th, in sympathy with the Arab world and the support with impunity for Israel, as even some Democrats are now arguing.

This 1973 Oil Embargo was 51 years ago.  Our models show that Crude is likely to press higher, but it will be in 2025 when we see the annual level become a grave issue. We may see a crisis in energy by March 2025 becoming obvious. The Neocons always want war. Yet, they have lost every single one since World War II. Nobody in Washington will stop them.

Glossary

Panic Cycle – Normally, a Panic Cycle is something that will exceed the previous high and penetrate the previous low. It will traditionally take out both previous session events. However, it can also be just an extreme move in one direction, which is often indicated by opening above the previous high or below the previous session low.