CalExit

COMMENT: My question is about your forecast that the separation of the United States would begin with California and that 2022 would be the turn in your model. Please explain how you came to the 2022 target and how this separation will develop.

DVS

ANSWER: The target 2022 was 172 years (2 x 8.6) from joining the USA in 1850 after the 1846 California’s Bear Flag Rebellion. However, the model turned up in 2018, when California first proposed exiting the USA because of Trump.

We warned that the Economic Confidence Model peak of 2015.75 was the peak in government. Trump won against all odds and forecasts in 2016, and within 2 years of that, California was proposing to separate from the United States.

It was 1846, the starting point for the separation movement 172 years later (2018). It was 1846 when the California Republic was a rebellion breakaway territory from Mexico, which lasted for 25 days between June 14th and July 9th, 1846. It was an area north of San Francisco. Ironically, it only involved 33 illegal American immigrants who had entered without official permission. They staged a rebellion against the Mexican government over the issue that they had not been allowed to buy or rent land and were threatened with deportation. Today, California wants to be a sanctuary state for everyone other than Americans. This is a 180-degree opposite turn, which seems to be cyclical – i.e., bull vs bear market.

Mexican officials were concerned about the prospect of war with the United States, so they were trying to prohibit the migration of Americans to retain their power and culture. The rebels created a flag named “California Republic” and raised it. It has always been a question of whether they did this purposefully to seize California. The insurgents elected military officers, but no civil structure was ever created. Their flag featured a California grizzly bear, which gave the name Bear Flag Rebellion.

Three weeks later, on July 5th, 1846, the Republic’s 100 to 200 men military grew much like Ukraine suddenly raising an army. The Bear Flag Rebellion ended on July 9th when, conveniently, the U.S. Navy raised the United States flag. Did the US plan to seize California and send these 33 guys into the area to start the rebellion so the USA did not appear to be invading Mexico and starting a full-fledged war? From 1846 onward, the U.S. military began occupying California. They then joined the union in 1850.

It was November 2022 when Trump announced he would run in 2024, which increased the CalExit movement in 2022. This has improved tremendously. The joke is that Davin Nusom wants to become the king of California.

Just as the people in the Donbas are Russian and have nothing in common with Ukrainians who just hate them, they should be allowed to separate. Under that same reasoning, California as a whole has nothing in common with the majority of the country. They, too, should be allowed to separate. The United States will break apart in any event, most likely as soon as 2029, if not more post-2032. As I have explained in the tariffs pieces I have written, Trump will actually go down in history as Herbert Hoover of the 21st century.