Forecasting Economic Numbers – Do They Matter?

adp-private-sector-jobs

QUESTION:  Hi Martin, You have mentioned on numerous occasions, that the Socrates has inputs from around the world to come to very accurate conclusions. I assume, it has plenty data from within the USA as well. Can it also predict the NFP? ADP?. (few days BEFORE.)

Don

ANSWER: We have put in such information from the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) and ADP Private Sector Jobs data and the interesting result demonstrates that human emotion rules — not numbers. Yes, any data series develops patterns including lottery numbers. Forecasting the direction of such numbers is not really that difficult. The stunning realization, as I have said plenty of times regarding fundamental analysis, is that the reaction of the market is driven by the trend. Therefore, you can obtain a good number but the market will respond in the opposite direction and the news will say it was not good enough. The overall trend being bullish or bearish will color the response to the numbers. Forecasting the number does little good from a reality perspective.

Latest Posts

How to Deal with the RINOs

  This is a special report that goes into the Constitutional authority that would actually allow Trump to dismiss both the Senate and the House and recall them. Naturally, the [...]
Read more

Consumers Pay Tariffs

Donald Trump believes tariffs could offset taxes, but tariffs will be a tax in itself to the American consumer. Trump is proposing to raise taxes from 60% to 100% on [...]
Read more

Simplify the Tax Code

The incoming Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy is tackling a serious problem – the complex tax code. Donald Trump has also expressed a keen [...]
Read more

Justice for Laken Riley

Charges have finally been brought against Jose Ibarra, the illegal migrant from Venezuela who brutally murdered nursing student Laken Riley. The court found Ibarra GUILTY on 10 charges, including murder, [...]
Read more