The Confusion in Gold
QUESTION #1: [_____] says that the dollar will collapse because with the debt ceiling gone – no more buyers of Treasuries in the markets and only the Fed Reserve buying – inflation goes to the wazoo. All over USA. care to comment?
ANSWER: Total nonsense. The USA debt of $20 trillion is a tiny fraction of global debt at $160 trillion. This entire theory does not hold up. Just where is all the money going to run? Gold? Institutions do not buy gold and cannot function with gold, which is not legal tender for even paying your taxes. The only thing that matters is the general public confidence. When the average person on the street no longer trusts government, that is the tipping point.
There is a whole series of people given a choice between a bar of chocolate and a bar of silver. They take the chocolate. Kids line up in Starbucks and pay with their phone – not even cash. Not until you shake the confidence of these people will you see the explosion in markets. That is what took place in the late 1970s. I was there. OPEC created the image of wholesale inflation. People were hoarding toilet paper.
QUESTION #2: What will Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage do to Gold?
ANSWER: The opposite of what people think. Shrinking the Balance Sheet will be anti-inflationary to the standard reasoning and thus gold should collapse with deflation. However, the Fed has turned away from QE because pension funds are at serious risk. They have run off to emerging markets and bought very long-term paper desperately trying to get their yields up. As the stock market rises because there is no alternative, the Fed politically will be forced to raise rates. They will end up creating inflation with rising rates that will blow interest expenditure through the roof.
QUESTION #3: Since we bounced off the reversal again, obviously this still does not negate a break of $1k and then the slingshot up. But it just seems as if gold is on its deathbed. If nuclear war could not get it to exceed last year’s high, is there anything left in this bag of fundamentals we have been hearing about forever?
ANSWER: I understand. This is what the Reversal System is good at. We stopped within a dime of that number. What will be will be. We are running out of fundamentals to keep buying gold. It’s like the fake news about the storm in Florida that a 15 foot wall of water would destroy the coast. It never came and many people are really angry at the media. How many times can they do this before people no longer listen. Gold is a confidence game – plain and simple. This number is just incredibly important far more than most people dare to consider. I will be doing the gold report soon. It is very critical at this point.
COMMENT: Marty, thank you so much for the past several years of WEC. You have taught me to keep my head in times like this. I bought the gold on the GMW and then sold it against the reversal with a stop just above as you did with the yen in 1998. I had two friends who were buying at the high expecting gold to breakout when I was selling. It was two against one. The majority must be wrong.
Thanks!
See you in Orlando.
ANSWER: The number of long positions verse net shorts in gold reached about 5:1 and you saw what happened – it simply bounced off of the reversal and did not exceed last year’s high. I am always amazed at how people get so bullish and say I am wrong and then within 2 days they lose their shirt. As they say, you can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make him drink. Some people judge the next 10 years by a few days of price movement. That is how the market separates traders from fools.
