The Crisis in Analysis – Is it Just Hopeless?
A new study has come out taking issue with the entire climate change forecasts putting forth that it is at best 45% as intense as the prognostications put forth. The greatest flaw is just how poor these people do their research. They are TOTALLY ignorant of any cyclical trend and project that if the temperature rises 1 degree this year, then they project that will continue without change for decades. Honestly, they do the same in just about every field with the same results. Economists assume they cannot predict the business cycle so why bother. Projections for growth into the next year are always based upon the trend this year.
As that famous interview of Larry Summers by Bloomberg reveals, Summers was asked why you “smart” people can never predict a recession? It is the methodology that makes all of these forecasts worthless. The one thing we can count on is that whatever trend is in motion this year, by no means guarantees we will see the same next year.
Just how do we ever get all of these fields to stop and consider cycles is beyond comprehension. When you forecast the future trend correctly, they accuse you of causing the trend because of influence. It often seems hopeless to ever get a change in how analysis is conducted. It will just take a crash and burn before anything changes.
Summer states the very theory why the NY banks accused me of manipulating the world. The assumption is you cannot, and if you do manage to do it, then it is attributed to influence. You just cannot win.
