Market Talk – March 10, 2023

ASIA:

Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third term as president of China on Friday during a parliamentary session in which he tightened his control of the world’s second-largest economy as it emerges from a COVID slump and diplomatic challenges mount. Nearly 3,000 members of China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), voted unanimously in the Great Hall of the People for the 69-year-old Xi in an election in which there was no other candidate. Xi has taken China on a more authoritarian path since assuming control a decade ago, and he extends his tenure for another five-year term amid increasingly adversarial relations with the U.S. and its allies over Taiwan, Beijing’s backing of Russia, trade and human rights.

The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:

• NIKKEI 225 decreased 479.18 points or -1.67% to 28,143.97
• Shanghai decreased 46.02 points or -1.40% to 3,230.08
• Hang Seng decreased 605.82 points or -3.04% to 19,319.92
• ASX 200 decreased 166.40 points or -2.28% to 7,144.70
• Kospi decreased 24.50 points or -1.01% to 2,394.59
• SENSEX decreased 671.15 points or -1.12% to 59,135.13
• Nifty50 decreased 176.70 points or -1.00% to 17,412.90

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.00189 or 0.29% to 0.66089
• NZDUSD increased 0.00498 or 0.82% to 0.61488
• USDJPY decreased 1.213 or -0.89% to 134.927
• USDCNY decreased 0.05101 or -0.73% to 6.92539

Precious Metals:

• Gold increased 30.31 USD/t oz. or 1.66% to 1,861.20
• Silver increased 0.423 USD/t. oz or 2.11% to 20.493

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Household Spending (YoY) (Jan) increased from -1.3% to -0.3%

Household Spending (MoM) (Jan) increased from -2.1% to 2.7%

BoJ Interest Rate Decision remain the same at -0.10%

New Zealand:

Business NZ PMI (Feb) increased from 50.8 to 52.0

Some economic news from today:

China:

New Loans (Feb) decreased from 4,900.0B to 1,810.0B

EUROPE/EMEA:

Annual inflation in Russia slowed in February but remains elevated, data from the state statistics service Rosstat showed on Friday, leaving the central bank with limited room to lower interest rates when it meets next Friday. In February, annual inflation stood at 10.99%, down from 11.77% a month earlier, the data showed. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slowdown to 11.2%. The Bank of Russia targets annual inflation at 4%. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.46% in February after a 0.84% increase in January, the data showed.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

• CAC 40 decreased 95.21 points or -1.30% to 7,220.67
• FTSE 100 decreased 131.63 points or -1.67% to 7,748.35
• DAX 30 decreased 205.24 points or -1.31% to 15,427.97

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00814 or 0.77% to 1.06614
• GBPUSD increased 0.0127 or 1.06% to 1.20520
• USDCHF decreased 0.01251 or -1.34% to 0.92009

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker decreased from 0.0% to -0.1%

GDP (MoM) (Jan) increased from -0.5% to 0.3%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.3% to -0.3%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.0% to -0.4%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jan) remain the same at 0.0%

Trade Balance (Jan) increased from -19.27B to -17.86B

Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan) decreased from -7.48B to -7.81B

Germany:

German CPI (YoY) (Feb) remain the same at 8.7%

German CPI (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 1.0% to 0.8%

US/AMERICAS:

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report – nonfarm payrolls rose 311,000 in February. The labor market remains tight and the data is above estimates of 225,000. Labor force participation is at the highest rate since March 2020 at 62.5%. Unemployment rose slightly to 3.6%. Hourly earnings rose 4.6% YoY and increased 0.4% MoM. Leisure and hospitality increased most significantly after rising by 105,000. Retail saw a notable gain of 50,000, business services rose 45,000, and the government grew by 46,000. Information-based positions fell by 25,000, and warehouse positions shed 22,000 positions.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has failed. The FDIC has promised to refund depositors up to $250,000 by Monday. The Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara will now host insured deposits from SVB. Uninsured depositors will be provided receivership certificates and should receive an advanced dividend within the next week. The FDIC must sell off the remaining assets of SVC to determine how much it can provide to those uninsured deposits. The bank was said to host $209 billion in assets and $175.4 billion in deposits as of December 2022. A bank failure of this proportion has not been seen since 2008 when Washington Mutual failed. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the House Ways and Means Committee that they are monitoring the situation carefully. In an afternoon press conference, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said she had not been briefed about the situation and the president likely is not on top of this major revelation.

US Market Closings:

• Dow declined 345.22 points or -1.07% to 31,909.64
• S&P 500 declined 56.73 points or -1.45% to 3,861.59
• Nasdaq declined 199.47 points or -1.76% to 11,138.89
• Russell 2000 declined 53.88 points or -2.95% to 1,772.7

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite declined 311.8 points or -1.55% to 19,774.92
• TSX 60 declined 18.68 points or -1.55% to 1,189.62

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa declined 1,452.99 points or -1.38% to 103,618.2

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 1.226 USD/BBL or 1.62% to 76.947
• Brent increased 1.274 USD/BBL or 1.56% to 82.864
• Natural gas decreased 0.0849 USD/MMBtu or -3.34% to 2.4581
• Gasoline increased 0.053 USD/GAL or 2.03% to 2.6581
• Heating oil increased 0.12 USD/GAL or 4.50% to 2.7889

The above data was collected around 12:32 EST on Friday

• Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (4.50%), Gasoline (2.03%), Silver (2.11%) and Coffee (2.44%)
• Top commodity losers: HRC Steel (-2.98%), Palm Oil (-2.66%), Cotton (-2.41%) and Natural Gas (-3.34%)

The above data was collected around 12:44 EST Friday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.445% (-5.6bp), US 2’s 4.65% (-0.253%), US 10’s 3.7102% (-21.28bps); US 30’s 3.70% (-0.169%), Bunds 2.469% (-17.2bp), France 2.977% (-16bp), Italy 4.279% (-10.7bp), Turkey 11.37% (-14bp), Greece 4.337% (-10.8bp), Portugal 3.415% (-9.1bp); Spain 3.505% (-13.5bp) and UK Gilts 3.613% (-16.8bp).

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