Market Talk – March 17, 2023

ASIA:

CRISIL expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to touch 6% in fiscal 2024, compared with 7% estimated by the National Statistics Office (NSO) for fiscal 2023. Consumer inflation is expected to moderate to 5.0% on average in fiscal 2024 from 6.8% in fiscal 2023, owing to high-base effect and some softening of crude and commodity prices. A good rabi harvest would help cool food inflation, while the slowing economy should moderate core inflation.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 323.18 points or 1.20% to 27,333.79
• Shanghai increased 23.65 points or 0.73% to 3,250.55
• Hang Seng increased 314.68 points or 1.64% to 19,518.59
• ASX 200 increased 29.30 points or 0.42% to 6,994.80
• Kospi increased 17.78 points or 0.75% to 2,395.69
• SENSEX increased 355.06 points or 0.62% to 57,989.90
• Nifty50 increased 114.45 points or 0.67% to 17,100.05

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.00214 or 0.32% to 0.66754
• NZDUSD increased 0.00506 or 0.82% to 0.62456
• USDJPY decreased 1.704 or -1.27% to 132.016
• USDCNY decreased 0.00374 or -0.05% to 6.89086

Precious Metals:

• Gold increased 40.49 USD/t oz. or 2.11% to 1,959.61
• Silver increased 0.481 USD/t. oz or 2.22% to 22.191

No economic news from last night:

Some economic news from today:

China:

FDI decreased from 14.5% to 6.1%

Japan:

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) increased from -0.4% to 0.9%

India:

FX Reserves, USD decreased from 562.40B to 560.00B

EUROPE/EMEA:

The Bank of England must decide next week whether to halt its long run of interest rate hikes or push them up again, probably for one last time, despite investor alarm over how banks in the United States and Europe are coping with higher borrowing costs. The BoE signalled in February that it was getting close to a pause and most economists polled this week by Reuters said it would probably opt for an 11th straight rate hike on Thursday, representing the end of a tightening cycle begun in late 2021.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

• CAC 40 decreased 100.32 points or -1.43% to 6,925.40
• FTSE 100 decreased 74.63 points or -1.01% to 7,335.40
• DAX 30 decreased 198.90 points or -1.33% to 14,768.20

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00407 or 0.38% to 1.06457
• GBPUSD increased 0.00344 or 0.28% to 1.21414
• USDCHF decreased 0.00058 or -0.06% to 0.92852

Some economic news from Europe today:

Euro Zone:

Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) increased from 5.3% to 5.6%

CPI (MoM) (Feb) increased from -0.2% to 0.8%

CPI (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 8.6% to 8.5%

Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q4) increased from 3.00% to 5.10%

US/AMERICAS:

Joe Biden is pointing the figure at bank executives for last week’s string of bank failures. Biden is proposing to penalize executive who “contributed to their institutions failing.” Such a move is not currently permitted by US law, and Biden is asking Congress to make changes to broaden the FDIC’s powers. The president would also like to ban executives with banks under receiverships from working in the banking sector entirely. “When banks fail due to mismanagement and excessive risk taking, it should be easier for regulators to claw back compensation from executives, to impose civil penalties, and to ban executives from working in the banking industry again,” the president stated.

Unemployment continued to dip this week after new applications fell by 20,000 in the US. The seasonally adjusted rate came in at 212,000, above expectations of 205,000.

US Market Closings:

• Dow declined 384.57 points or -1.19% to 31,861.98
• S&P 500 declined 43.64 points or -1.1% to 3,916.64
• Nasdaq declined 86.76 points or -0.74% to 11,630.51
• Russell 2000 declined 45.34 points or -2.56% to 1,725.9

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite declined 151.29 points or -0.77% to 19,387.72
• TSX 60 declined 10.06 points or -0.86% to 1,164.4

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa declined 1,453.13 points or -1.4% to 101,981.53

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil decreased 1.754 USD/BBL or -2.57% to 66.596
• Brent decreased 1.979 USD/BBL or -2.65% to 72.721
• Natural gas decreased 0.1465 USD/MMBtu or -5.83% to 2.3675
• Gasoline decreased 0.0196 USD/GAL or -0.78% to 2.4839
• Heating oil increased 0.0369 USD/GAL or 1.40% to 2.6804

The above data was collected around 11:58 EST on Friday

• Top commodity gainers: Gold (2.11%), Silver (2.22%), Lumber (3.08%) and Cocoa (3.16%)
• Top commodity losers: Palladium (-2.06%), Natural Gas (-5.83%), Brent (-2.65%) and Crude Oil (-2.57%)

The above data was collected around 12:11 EST Friday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.370% (+8.2bp), US 2’s 3.94% (-0.195%), US 10’s 3.4118% (-17.12bps); US 30’s 3.61% (-0.099%), Bunds 2.089% (-15.4bp), France 2.663% (-14.3bp), Italy 4.037% (-13.2bp), Turkey 11.10% (+2bp), Greece 4.142% (-10bp), Portugal 3.048% (-14.4bp); Spain 3.214% (-14bp) and UK Gilts 3.264% (-16.2bp).

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