Market Talk – March 31, 2023

ASIA:

India’s unemployment rate rose to a 16-month high in December as job creation in the slowing economy failed to keep pace with the growing workforce. The overall unemployment rate increased to 8.3 percent, up from 8 percent in November, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. That’s the highest reading since August 2021. The rise in unemployment comes amid a demand slowdown following a robust festive season. Borrowing costs climbed by 225 basis points last year as inflation stayed above the central bank’s target level for most of 2022. The urban unemployment rate jumped to 10.09 percent last month from 8.96 percent in November, while rural unemployment fell to 7.44 percent from 7.55 percent, the data showed.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 258.55 points or 0.93% to 28,041.48
• Shanghai increased 11.61 points or 0.36% to 3,272.86
• Hang Seng increased 90.98 points or 0.45% to 20,400.11
• ASX 200 increased 55.50 points or 0.78% to 7,177.80
• Kospi increased 23.70 points or 0.97% to 2,476.86
• SENSEX increased 1,031.43 points or 1.78% to 58,991.52
• Nifty50 increased 279.05 points or 1.63% to 17,359.75

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.00109 or -0.16% to 0.66961
• NZDUSD increased 0.00014 or 0.02% to 0.62624
• USDJPY increased 0.172 or 0.13% to 132.822
• USDCNY decreased 0.00613 or -0.09% to 6.86777

Precious Metals:

• Gold decreased 2.68 USD/t oz. or -0.14% to 1,977.57
• Silver increased 0.231 USD/t. oz or 0.97% to 24.106

Some economic news from last night:

China:

Chinese Composite PMI (Mar) increased from 56.4 to 57.0

Manufacturing PMI (Mar) decreased from 52.6 to 51.9

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) increased from 56.3 to 58.2

Japan:

Jobs/applications ratio (Feb) decreased from 1.35 to 1.34

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 3.3% to 3.2%

CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.2% to 0.4%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) increased from -5.3% to 4.5%

Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) increased from 5.0% to 6.6%

Australia:

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3%

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Construction Orders (YoY) (Feb) increased from -14.0% to 22.3%

Housing Starts (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 6.6% to -0.3%

Hong Kong:

Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) increased from 7.0% to 31.3%

M3 Money Supply (Feb) decreased from 1.6% to 0.1%

India:

Foreign Debt (USD) (Q4) increased from 610.5B to 613.1B

Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 8.9% to 6.0%

Federal Fiscal Deficit (Feb) increased from 11,908.05B to 14,538.62B

Balance of Payments (USD) (Q4) increased from -30.400B to 11.100B

Current Account % of GDP (QoQ) (Q4) increased from -4.40% to -2.20%

Current Account (USD) (Q4) increased from -30.90B to -18.20B

FX Reserves, USD increased from 572.80B to 578.78B

Trade Balance (USD) (Q4) increased from -78.300B to -72.700B

EUROPE/EMEA:

The UK has reached a historic trade deal with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), after two years of negotiations. The agreement makes the UK the first European nation to join the CPTPP, which spans Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia, among others. The UK said this is its largest post-Brexit trade deal and will unlock access to a region with a total GDP of £11 trillion ($13.6 trillion). The agreement is expected to be formally signed by year-end, subject to final approval from Parliament and the 11 member states.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

• CAC 40 increased 59.02 points or 0.81% to 7,322.39
• FTSE 100 increased 11.31 points or 0.15% to 7,631.74
• DAX 30 increased 106.44 points or 0.69% to 15,628.84

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD decreased 0.00367 or -0.34% to 1.08643
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00311 or -0.25% to 1.23519
• USDCHF increased 0.00123 or 0.13% to 0.91433

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) increased from -1.7% to 0.3%

UK:

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 0.1% to -0.2%

Current Account (Q4) increased from -12.7B to -2.5B

GDP (YoY) (Q4) increased from 0.2% to 0.6%

GDP (QoQ) (Q4) increased from -0.3% to 0.1%

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from -0.5% to -0.8%

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Mar) decreased from -1.1% to -3.1%

Germany:

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 0.1% to -1.3%

German Unemployment Change (Mar) increased from 2K to 16K

German Unemployment Rate (Mar) increased from 5.5% to 5.6%

France:

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Feb) decreased from 1.7% to -0.8%

French CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 1.0% to 0.8%

French HICP (MoM) decreased from 1.1% to 0.9%

Italy:

Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.2% to -0.3%

Euro Zone:

Core CPI (YoY) increased from 5.6% to 5.7%

CPI (MoM) increased from 0.8% to 0.9%

CPI (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 8.5% to 6.9%

Unemployment Rate (Feb) remain the same at 6.6%

US/AMERICAS:

Inflation continues to rise in the US, despite the efforts from the Fed. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price advanced 0.3% in February, according to the Commerce Department. Core PCE has increased 4.6% over the past 12 months, marking only a slight deceleration from January. Headline PCE, including food and energy, rose 0.3% on the monthly level and 5% annually. The cost of food continues to rise after increasing 0.2%, while gas experienced a slight decline of 0.4%. Personal income rose 0.3%, while consumer spending increased 0.2%.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 415.12 points or 1.26% to 33,274.15
• S&P 500 advanced 58.48 points or 1.44% to 4,109.31
• Nasdaq advanced 208.44 points or 1.74% to 12,221.91
• Russell 2000 advanced 34.1 points or 1.93% to 1,802.48

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 158.9 points or 0.8% to 20,099.89
• TSX 60 advanced 8.97 points or 0.75% to 1,206.31

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa declined 1,831.25 points or -1.77% to 101,882.2

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a green day today:

• Crude Oil increased 1.235 USD/BBL or 1.66% to 75.605
• Brent increased 1.144 USD/BBL or 1.46% to 79.744
• Natural gas increased 0.0998 USD/MMBtu or 4.74% to 2.2038
• Gasoline increased 0.0521 USD/GAL or 1.98% to 2.6899
• Heating oil increased 0.0483 USD/GAL or 1.88% to 2.6121

The above data was collected around 12:38 EST on Friday

• Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (4.74%), Gasoline (1.98%), Soybeans (2.27%) and Rapeseed (2.57%)
• Top commodity losers: Oat (-1.49%), Rhodium (-4.19%), Cotton (-1.04%) and Cheese (-2.16%)

The above data was collected around 12:45 EST Friday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.324% (+0.3bp), US 2’s 4.09% (-0.006%), US 10’s 3.511% (-4bps); US 30’s 3.70% (-0.051%), Bunds 2.286% (-8bp), France 2.789% (-10.1bp), Italy 4.081% (-15.4bp), Turkey 10.31% (+0bp), Greece 4.229% (-8.8bp), Portugal 3.144% (-9.6bp); Spain 3.305% (-10.4bp) and UK Gilts 3.472% (-4.3bp).

The post Market Talk – March 31, 2023 first appeared on Armstrong Economics.