Market Talk – April 20, 2023

ASIA:

Singapore’s March non-oil domestic exports (NODX) shrank 8.3% year-on-year, official data showed on Monday, though the drop was smaller than the previous month and less than forecast. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, NODX increased 18.4%, Enterprise Singapore data showed, versus the prior month’s 8.2% decline. Economists had forecast 1.7% growth. The trade reliant city-state has now recorded six consecutive months of year-on-year contraction in the NODX, amid concerns over the economic outlook. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its monetary policy settings unchanged last week, even though the inflation rate remains elevated, reflecting policy makers’ concerns about its growth outlook.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 50.81 points or 0.18% to 28,657.57
• Shanghai decreased 3.10 points or -0.09% to 3,367.03
• Hang Seng increased 29.21 points or 0.14% to 20,396.97
• ASX 200 decreased 3.30 points or -0.04% to 7,362.20
• Kospi decreased 11.97 points or -0.46% to 2,563.11
• SENSEX increased 64.55 points or 0.11% to 59,632.35
• Nifty50 increased 5.70 points or 0.03% to 17,624.45

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.0036 or 0.54% to 0.67490
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00104 or -0.17% to 0.61876
• USDJPY decreased 0.561 or -0.42% to 134.129
• USDCNY decreased 0.01383 or -0.20% to 6.88057

Precious Metals:

• Gold increased 13.07 USD/t oz. or 0.66% to 2,006.33
• Silver decreased 0.004 USD/t. oz or -0.01% to 25.254

Some economic news from last night:

China:

PBoC Loan Prime Rate remain the same at 3.65%

Japan:

Trade Balance (Mar) increased from -898.1B to -754.5B

Adjusted Trade Balance increased from -1.25T to -1.21T

Exports (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 6.5% to 4.3%

Australia:

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence decreased from -1 to -4

New Zealand:

CPI (YoY) (Q1) decreased from 7.2% to 6.7%

CPI (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 1.4% to 1.2%

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) remain the same at 0.7%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Experts are warning that interest rates may have to increase more than expected to control high inflation. The Bank of England may raise the base rate as high as 5%, as current measures are not reducing inflation. In March, the Consumer Prices Index inflation was 10.1%, still much higher than the predicted 9.8%. The Bank of England’s goal is to keep inflation near 2%. Deutsche Bank economists originally predicted rates would peak at 4.25%, but they are now predicting a peak of 4.75% due to continued inflation growth. The Office for National Statistics revealed that food prices increased by 19.1% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 1977.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:

• CAC 40 decreased 10.73 points or -0.14% to 7,538.71
• FTSE 100 increased 3.84 points or 0.05% to 7,902.61
• DAX 30 decreased 99.23 points or -0.62% to 15,795.97

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.001 or 0.09% to 1.09640
• GBPUSD increased 0.00065 or 0.05% to 1.24445
• USDCHF decreased 0.00301 or -0.34% to 0.89439

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German PPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from -0.3% to -2.6%

Euro Zone:

Trade Balance (Feb) increased from -30.6B to 4.6B

US/AMERICAS:

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stressed the importance of healthy, “fair” competition between the US and China. “There is a world in which, as companies in the U.S. and China challenge each other, our economies can grow, standards of living can rise, and new innovations can bear fruit,” Yellen said, according to pre-released remarks. “But this type of healthy competition is only sustainable if it is fair to both sides.” She denounced aggressive tactics used to gather technological information, but only mentioned China’s aggressive tactics. The news comes as China continues to sell off massive US debt.

US Market Closings:

• Dow declined 110.39 points or -0.33% to 33,786.62
• S&P 500 declined 24.73 points or -0.6% to 4,129.79
• Nasdaq declined 97.67 points or -0.8% to 12,059.56
• Russell 2000 declined 9.74 points or -0.54% to 1,789.7

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite declined 50.14 points or -0.24% to 20,630.69
• TSX 60 declined 1.91 points or -0.15% to 1,244.85

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 453.88 points or 0.44% to 104,366.82

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a negative day today:

• Crude Oil decreased 2.034 USD/BBL or -2.57% to 77.206
• Brent decreased 2.198 USD/BBL or -2.64% to 80.922
• Natural gas decreased 0.0252 USD/MMBtu or -1.13% to 2.1968
• Gasoline decreased 0.0654 USD/GAL or -2.47% to 2.5801
• Heating oil decreased 0.0714 USD/GAL or -2.79% to 2.4863

The above data was collected around 12:50 EST on Thursday

• Top commodity gainers: Methanol (0.98%), Orange Juice (1.03%), Sugar (3.49%) and Gold (0.66%)
• Top commodity losers: Coffee (-3.51%), Cotton (-4.20%), Heating Oil (-2.79%) and Brent (-2.64%)

The above data was collected around 12:56 EST Thursday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.471% (-0.5bp), US 2’s 4.17% (-0.091%), US 10’s 3.5337% (-6.83bps); US 30’s 3.74% (-0.052%), Bunds 2.445% (-5.9bp), France 2.953% (-6.1bp), Italy 4.33% (-3.5bp), Turkey 11.92% (+5bp), Greece 4.323% (+0.2bp), Portugal 3.329% (-3.5bp); Spain 3.482% (-6.1bp) and UK Gilts 3.747% (-11bp).

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