Market Talk – April 26, 2023

ASIA:

India’s economy remained strong in March despite a decline in exports and a rise in unemployment, which could affect the country’s outlook. The Reserve Bank of India has paused rates for the first time since May to assess the impact of previous rate increases and support growth. Manufacturing activity improved as raw material availability increased, but activity in the services sector decreased from a 12-year high in the previous month. Exports fell for a fourth consecutive month, while imports declined 7.9% from a year earlier. The banking system had a surplus of liquidity in March, but credit growth slowed to 15%.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 decreased 203.60 points or -0.71% to 28,416.47
• Shanghai decreased 0.77 points or -0.02% to 3,264.10
• Hang Seng increased 139.39 points or 0.71% to 19,757.27
• ASX 200 decreased 5.70 points or -0.08% to 7,316.30
• Kospi decreased 4.19 points or -0.17% to 2,484.83
• SENSEX increased 169.87 points or 0.28% to 60,300.58
• Nifty50 increased 44.35 points or 0.25% to 17,813.60

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.00222 or -0.34% to 0.66028
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00163 or -0.27% to 0.61197
• USDJPY increased 0.027 or 0.02% to 133.737
• USDCNY increased 0.00275 or 0.04% to 6.94215

Precious Metals:

• Gold decreased 10.4 USD/t oz. or -0.52% to 1,987.47
• Silver decreased 0.249 USD/t. oz or -0.99% to 24.796

Some economic news from last night:

Australia:

CPI (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 1.9% to 1.4%

CPI (YoY) (Q1) decreased from 7.8% to 7.0%

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 1.7% to 1.2%

New Zealand:

Trade Balance (YoY) (Mar) decreased from -15,720M to -16,400M

Trade Balance (MoM) (Mar) decreased from -796M to -1,273M

EUROPE/EMEA:

The Bank of England’s top economist has said that people in the UK need to accept that they are poorer as prices continue to rise. UK inflation was 10.1% in the year to March, which is higher than the Bank of England’s target of 2%. The Bank has increased interest rates to reduce spending and cool down demand for goods to slow down price rises. However, workers are asking for pay rises to ease the pressure on budgets due to soaring energy bills and food costs. Job vacancies are falling but are still higher than they have been for decades, which strengthens people’s hands as they ask for pay rises.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:

• CAC 40 decreased 64.95 points or -0.86% to 7,466.66
• FTSE 100 decreased 38.49 points or -0.49% to 7,852.64
• DAX 30 decreased 76.40 points or -0.48% to 15,795.73

The major Europe currency markets had a green day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00653 or 0.60% to 1.10373
• GBPUSD increased 0.00582 or 0.47% to 1.24662
• USDCHF increased 0.00002 or 0.00% to 0.89172

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

Labour Productivity (Q4) increased from -0.2% to 0.4%

Germany:

GfK German Consumer Climate (May) increased from -29.3 to -25.7

France:

France Jobseekers Total decreased from 2,800.0K to 2,789.0K

US/AMERICAS:

First Republic Bank’s stock continued to decline as it searches for a rescue deal. The bank’s shares fell by about 50% yesterday, a day after it said customers had pulled $102 billion in deposits in Q1 of 2023, well over half the $176 billion it held at the end of last year. First Republic Cank has been struggling with liquidity, and its stock market value has collapsed by over 80% in the past ten trading sessions due to fears of a bank run. The bank received a temporary $30 billion lifeline in March from the nation’s biggest banks, but those banks can withdraw their deposits as soon as July. The bank’s executives have refused to answer questions about the bank’s future.

US Market Closings:

• Dow declined 228.96 points or -0.68% to 33,301.87
• S&P 500 declined 15.64 points or -0.38% to 4,055.99
• Nasdaq advanced 55.19 points or 0.47% to 11,854.35
• Russell 2000 declined 15.54 points or -0.89% to 1,730.41

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite declined 73.15 points or -0.36% to 20,366.72
• TSX 60 declined 2.88 points or -0.23% to 1,229.43

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa declined 907.99 points or -0.88% to 102,312.1

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a negative day today:

• Crude Oil decreased 1.488 USD/BBL or -1.93% to 75.582
• Brent decreased 1.882 USD/BBL or -2.33% to 78.888
• Natural gas decreased 0.1565 USD/MMBtu or -6.42% to 2.2805
• Gasoline decreased 0.0157 USD/GAL or -0.61% to 2.5729
• Heating oil decreased 0.0503 USD/GAL or -2.05% to 2.4008

The above data was collected around 14:01 EST on Wednesday

• Top commodity gainers: Coffee (1.90%), Rapeseed (3.39%), Zinc (1.98%) and Palladium (2.45%)
• Top commodity losers: HRC Steel (-10.68%), Natural Gas (-6.42%), Orange Juice (-3.49%) and Lumber (-3.49%)

The above data was collected around 14:09 EST Wednesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.456% (-2.8bp), US 2’s 3.98% (+0.021%), US 10’s 3.4428% (+4.48bps); US 30’s 3.69% (+0.040%), Bunds 2.401% (+2.3bp), France 2.965% (+2.4bp), Italy 4.256% (-0.5bp), Turkey 11.93% (-67bp), Greece 4.22% (-1.8bp), Portugal 3.235% (+0.3bp); Spain 3.447% (+2.3bp) and UK Gilts 3.727% (+3.2bp).

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