Market Talk – April 27, 2023

ASIA:

Investors are bracing for a regime change in global markets as the Bank of Japan moves closer to abandoning policies that have depressed the yen for decades, luring Japanese money back home. The yen has gained more than 11% from 30-year lows against the dollar last October and about 9% from eight-year lows against the Australian currency last year. Kazuo Ueda, who will wrap up his first two-day meeting as BOJ chief on Friday, stressed the need for ultra-loose monetary policy but also hinted at the possibility of raising rates to tame inflation.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 41.21 points or 0.15% to 28,457.68
• Shanghai increased 21.78 points or 0.67% to 3,285.88
• Hang Seng increased 83.01 points or 0.42% to 19,840.28
• ASX 200 decreased 23.60 points or -0.32% to 7,292.70
• Kospi increased 10.98 points or 0.44% to 2,495.81
• SENSEX increased 348.80 points or 0.58% to 60,649.38
• Nifty50 increased 101.45 points or 0.57% to 17,915.05

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.00222 or 0.34% to 0.66202
• NZDUSD increased 0.00208 or 0.34% to 0.61368
• USDJPY increased 0.226 or 0.17% to 133.886
• USDCNY decreased 0.00728 or -0.10% to 6.93262

Precious Metals:

• Gold decreased 0.86 USD/t oz. or -0.04% to 1,988.62
• Silver increased 0.027 USD/t. oz or 0.11% to 24.917

Some economic news from last night:

New Zealand:

ANZ Business Confidence (Apr) decreased from -43.4 to -43.8

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Coincident Indicator (MoM) decreased from 2.8% to 2.5%

Leading Index (MoM) increased from 1.1% to 1.3%

Leading Index increased from 96.7 to 98.0

EUROPE/EMEA:

The European Central Bank (ECB) today published the third progress report on the digital euro, as well as the findings of focus groups commissioned by the ECB concerning people’s views on the features of a potential digital wallet. The progress report presents a third set of design and distribution options, endorsed by the ECB’s Governing Council, that would feed into the overall design of a digital euro. The study found that most participants were interested in trying some of the digital wallet features presented. The concrete findings are relevant to the design features of a possible digital euro.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:

• CAC 40 increased 17.18 points or 0.23% to 7,483.84
• FTSE 100 decreased 21.06 points or -0.27% to 7,831.58
• DAX 30 increased 4.72 points or 0.03% to 15,800.45

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD decreased 0.00224 or -0.20% to 1.10176
• GBPUSD increased 0.0009 or 0.07% to 1.24760
• USDCHF increased 0.00345 or 0.39% to 0.89455

Some economic news from Europe today:

Spain:

Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) increased from 4.1% to 9.5%

Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q1) increased from 12.87% to 13.26%

Italy:

Italian Business Confidence (Apr) decreased from 104.1 to 103.0

Italian Consumer Confidence (Apr) increased from 105.1 to 105.5

US/AMERICAS:

The US economy advanced at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the Commerce Department’s third and final reading for the quarter. This is a slower pace than the initial estimate of 2.9% and the revised estimate of 2.7%. However, the growth rate is still a solid end to a volatile year. Consumer spending rose 2.1% in Q4, down only slightly from Q3. Analysts suggest that a recession is all but impossible as long as households keep spending. The US economy is expected to continue growing in 2023, with forecasts predicting a growth rate of 2.9%

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 524.29 points or 1.57% to 33,826.16
• S&P 500 advanced 79.36 points or 1.96% to 4,135.35
• Nasdaq advanced 287.89 points or 2.43% to 12,142.24
• Russell 2000 advanced 20.81 points or 1.2% to 1,751.22

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 155.92 points or 0.77% to 20,522.64
• TSX 60 advanced 9.69 points or 0.79% to 1,239.12

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 611.21 points or 0.6% to 102,923.31

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 0.766 USD/BBL or 1.03% to 75.066
• Brent increased 0.826 USD/BBL or 1.06% to 78.516
• Natural gas increased 0.0593 USD/MMBtu or 2.57% to 2.3643
• Gasoline increased 0.0016 USD/GAL or 0.06% to 2.5510
• Heating oil decreased 0.0045 USD/GAL or -0.19% to 2.3685

The above data was collected around 13:27 EST on Thursday

• Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (2.57%), Cheese (2.39%), Cotton (2.65%) and Rhodium (4.94%)
• Top commodity losers: Corn (-2.70%), Oat (-4.71%), Orange Juice (-3.47%) and Palm Oil (-3.22%)

The above data was collected around 13:39 EST Thursday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.463% (+0.7bp), US 2’s 4.06% (+0.140%), US 10’s 3.5166% (+8.66bps); US 30’s 3.76% (+0.068%), Bunds 2.461% (+7.6bp), France 3.03% (+6.9bp), Italy 4.353% (+9.7bp), Turkey 13.22% (+129bp), Greece 4.284% (+6.4bp), Portugal 3.309% (+7.4bp); Spain 3.511% (+7.4bp) and UK Gilts 3.799% (+7.2bp).

The post Market Talk – April 27, 2023 first appeared on Armstrong Economics.