Market Talk – May 17, 2023

ASIA:

India’s economy is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2023, driven by strong domestic demand, although high funding costs and weak external demand pose challenges. The United Nations report also predicts a growth rate of 6.7% for India in 2024. Inflation is forecasted to decrease to 5.5% in 2023, aided by stable global commodity prices and a slower currency depreciation. In April, India’s retail inflation reached a low of 4.70%, staying below the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 4%.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 256.60 points or 0.84% to 30,093.59
• Shanghai decreased 6.76 points or -0.21% to 3,284.23
• Hang Seng decreased 417.68 points or -2.09% to 19,560.57
• ASX 200 decreased 35.50 points or -0.49% to 7,199.20
• Kospi increased 14.42 points or 0.58% to 2,494.66
• SENSEX decreased 371.83 points or -0.60% to 61,560.64
• Nifty50 decreased 104.75 points or -0.57% to 18,181.75

The major Asian currency markets had a green day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.00166 or 0.25% to 0.66716
• NZDUSD increased 0.00331 or 0.53% to 0.62641
• USDJPY increased 1.145 or 0.84% to 137.515
• USDCNY increased 0.00583 or 0.08% to 7.00403

Precious Metals:

• Gold decreased 6.61 USD/t oz. or -0.33% to 1,981.99
• Silver increased 0.025 USD/t. oz or 0.10% to 23.758

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

GDP (YoY) (Q1) increased from -0.1% to 1.6%

GDP (QoQ) (Q1) increased from 0.0% to 0.4%

Australia:

Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) remain the same at 0.8%

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 4.6% to 1.1%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Stellantis, one of the world’s largest car manufacturers, has warned that British car plants could shut down and result in significant job losses unless the Brexit deal is renegotiated promptly. The company, which owns brands such as Vauxhall, Peugeot, Citroen, and Fiat, explained that the current deal would subject them to tariffs when exporting electric vans to Europe starting next year due to stricter post-Brexit regulations. Stellantis, along with the European car trade lobby and Ford, is urging the UK government and the European Union to extend the existing rules on parts sourcing until 2027 instead of the planned change in 2024. Ford also expressed concerns, emphasizing that tariffs in the coming year could hinder the transition to electric vehicles.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:

• CAC 40 decreased 6.57 points or -0.09% to 7,399.44
• FTSE 100 decreased 27.85 points or -0.36% to 7,723.23
• DAX 30 increased 53.37 points or 0.34% to 15,951.30

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD decreased 0.00181 or -0.17% to 1.08429
• GBPUSD increased 0.00163 or 0.13% to 1.25013
• USDCHF increased 0.00213 or 0.24% to 0.89843

Some economic news from Europe today:

Euro Zone:

Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) decreased from 5.7% to 5.6%

CPI (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 0.9% to 0.6%

CPI (YoY) (Apr) increased from 6.9% to 7.0%

US/AMERICAS:

​According to the​​ Commerce Department​​, US housing starts​​ unexpectedly​​ increased by​​ 2.2% in April​​ 2023 to an annual​​ rate of 1.40 million​​ units, above​​ Refinitiv economists​​’ forecast for​​ a decline. The​​ increase in new​​ home construction​​ is attributed​​ to limited inventory​​ that helped to​​ jolt homebuyer demand​​. However, housing​​ starts remain​​ down 22.3% compared​​ to the same period​​ one year ago​​. Yet, home builder​​ sentiment increased​​ in April to positive​​ territory for​​ the first time​​ since last summer​​, likely due to​​ a decline in​​ mortgage rates​​ and a rise in​​ consumer confidence.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 408.63 points or 1.24% to 33,420.77
• S&P 500 advanced 48.87 points or 1.19% to 4,158.77
• Nasdaq advanced 157.51 points or 1.28% to 12,500.57
• Russell 2000 advanced 38.32 points or 2.21% to 1,774.5

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite remained unchanged at 20,242.07
• TSX 60 advanced 1.93 points or 0.16% to 1,223.29

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 1,266.27 points or 1.17% to 109,459.95

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a green day today:

• Crude Oil increased 1.963 USD/BBL or 2.77% to 72.823
• Brent increased 2.127 USD/BBL or 2.84% to 77.037
• Natural gas increased 0.0234 USD/MMBtu or 0.98% to 2.3994
• Gasoline increased 0.0868 USD/GAL or 3.50% to 2.5659
• Heating oil increased 0.0592 USD/GAL or 2.50% to 2.4231

The above data was collected around 13:52 EST on Wednesday

• Top commodity gainers: Gasoline (3.50%), Brent (2.84%), Cotton (3.48%) and Potatoes (3.00%)
• Top commodity losers: Corn (-3.16%), Rhodium (-4.05%), Wheat (-3.33%) and Coffee (-3.59%)

The above data was collected around 13:57 EST Wednesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.361% (-3.5bp), US 2’s 4.16% (+0.086%), US 10’s 3.5792% (+3.02bps); US 30’s 3.88% (+0.004%), Bunds 2.351% (+1.1bp), France 2.927% (-1bp), Italy 4.173% (-5.4bp), Turkey 9.12% (-62bp), Greece 3.977% (-5.3bp), Portugal 3.151% (-1.1bp); Spain 3.409% (-1.1bp) and UK Gilts 3.84% (+2.1bp).

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