Market Talk – July 13, 2023

ASIA:

China’s exports have experienced a significant decline, marking the fastest drop since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic three years ago. The weakened global economy has intensified the pressure on Chinese policymakers to implement new stimulus measures. In June, outbound shipments from China, the world’s second-largest economy, plummeted by a higher-than-anticipated 12.4% compared to the previous year. This decline follows a 7.5% drop in May. Notably, exports to the United States, which is the primary market for Chinese goods, have experienced the most substantial decrease among major trading partners during the first half of the year, mainly due to escalating diplomatic tensions regarding chip technology and other issues. Conversely, exports to Russia have increased significantly, albeit from a relatively modest level. As exports account for approximately one-fifth of China’s economy and the troubled property sector contributes to about one-third, the country’s prospects for a swift recovery have dimmed following the adverse impact of COVID-related lockdowns on the economy in 2022.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 475.40 points or 1.49% to 32,419.33
• Shanghai increased 40.35 points or 1.26% to 3,236.48
• Hang Seng increased 489.67 points or 2.60% to 19,350.62
• ASX 200 increased 111.20 points or 1.56% to 7,246.90
• Kospi increased 16.51 points or 0.64% to 2,591.23
• SENSEX increased 164.99 points or 0.25% to 65,558.89
• Nifty50 increased 29.45 points or 0.15% to 19,413.75

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.00938 or 1.38% to 0.68808
• NZDUSD increased 0.00826 or 1.31% to 0.63776
• USDJPY decreased 0.345 or -0.25% to 138.155
• USDCNY decreased 0.01442 or -0.20% to 7.15088

Precious Metals:

• Gold increased 3.65 USD/t oz. or 0.19% to 1,960.74
• Silver increased 0.556 USD/t. oz or 2.30% to 24.694

Some economic news from last night:

China:

Exports (YoY) (Jun) decreased from -7.5% to -12.4%

Imports (YoY) (Jun) decreased from -4.5% to -6.8%

Trade Balance (USD) (Jun) decreased from 65.81B to 70.62B

New Zealand:

Business NZ PMI (Jun) decreased from 48.9 to 47.5

Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) increased from -1.7% to 1.0%

No economic news from today:

EUROPE/EMEA:

Southern Europe sweltered under a fierce heatwave on Thursday, with a warning that temperatures could hit record highs for the continent next week, raising fears about the impact on human health, crops and animals. The impact of extreme summer heat has been brought into focus by research this week that said as many as 61,000 people may have died in Europe’s sweltering heatwaves last summer. Health authorities issued a top, red alert warning for 10 Italian cities for the next two days, including Rome, Florence, Bologna and Perugia. In Greece, the government has ordered the suspension of work between 12 p.m. and 5 p.m. local (0900-1400 GMT) in areas where the risk from heat is very high, and also requested remote work for private sector employees with health conditions.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:

• CAC 40 increased 36.79 points or 0.50% to 7,369.80
• FTSE 100 increased 24.10 points or 0.32% to 7,440.21
• DAX 30 increased 118.03 points or 0.74% to 16,141.03

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.00638 or 0.57% to 1.11918
• GBPUSD increased 0.01192 or 0.92% to 1.31052
• USDCHF decreased 0.00783 or -0.90% to 0.85957

Some economic news from Europe today:

France:

French CPI (MoM) (Jun) increased from -0.1% to 0.2%

French HICP (MoM) (Jun) increased from -0.1% to 0.2%

UK:

RICS House Price Balance (Jun) decreased from -30% to -46%

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker remain the same at 0.00%

GDP (MoM) (May) decreased from 0.2% to -0.1%

Industrial Production (MoM) (May) decreased from -0.2% to -0.6%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) decreased from -0.1% to -0.2%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (May) decreased from 0.1% to 0.0%

Trade Balance (May) decreased from -14.64B to -18.72B

Trade Balance Non-EU (May) decreased from -4.64B to -6.76B

Euro Zone:

Industrial Production (MoM) (May) decreased from 1.0% to 0.2%

 US/AMERICAS:

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 47.71 points or 0.14% to 34,395.14
• S&P 500 advanced 37.88 points or 0.85% to 4,510.04
• Nasdaq advanced 219.61 points or 1.58% to 14,138.57
• Russell 2000 advanced 17.51 points or 0.91% to 1,950.89

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 206.87 points or 1.03% to 20,277.64
• TSX 60 advaned 14.52 points or 1.21% to 1,217.97

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 1,597.4 points or 1.36% to 119,263.89

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 0.643 USD/BBL or 0.85% to 76.394
• Brent increased 0.667 USD/BBL or 0.83% to 80.777
• Natural gas decreased 0.0562 USD/MMBtu or -2.14% to 2.5758
• Gasoline decreased 0.0003 USD/GAL or -0.01% to 2.6667
• Heating oil increased 0.0072 USD/GAL or 0.28% to 2.6068

The above data was collected around 11:22 EST on Thursday

• Top commodity gainers: Silver (2.30%), Corn (3.15%), Platinum (2.74%) and Rhodium (3.57%)
• Top commodity losers: Palm Oil (-1.55%), Feeder Cattle (-1.05%), Cocoa (-1.64%) and Natural Gas (-2.14%)

The above data was collected around 11:27 EST Thursday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.471% (-0.6bp), US 2’s 4.66% (-0.086%), US 10’s 3.8025% (-5.85bps); US 30’s 3.93% (-0.026%), Bunds 2.465% (-8.3bp), France 3.022% (-7.6bp), Italy 4.155% (-11.5bp), Turkey 16.35% (-28bp), Greece 3.919% (-10.9bp), Portugal 3.207% (-10.1bp); Spain 3.507% (-8.8bp) and UK Gilts 4.435% (-7.8bp).