Market Talk – September 12, 2023

ASIA:

In August, China’s consumer prices increased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year, marking a return to positive territory. This follows a 0.3% decrease in July. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, remained steady at 0.8% in August. Factory-gate prices, as measured by the producer price index (PPI), declined by 3.0% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and showing improvement from the 4.4% drop in July. Overall, these data suggest a reduction in deflation pressures and signs of economic stabilization in China, with a slight uptick in consumer prices.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 308.61 points or 0.95% to 32,776.37
• Shanghai decreased 5.72 points or -0.18% to 3,137.06
• Hang Seng decreased 70.56 points or -0.39% to 18,025.89
• ASX 200 increased 14.60 points or 0.20% to 7,206.90
• Kospi decreased 20.30 points or -0.79% to 2,536.58
• SENSEX increased 94.05 points or 0.14% to 67,221.13
• Nifty50 decreased 3.15 points or -0.02% to 19,993.20

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.00091 or -0.14% to 0.64219
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00139 or -0.23% to 0.59031
• USDJPY increased 0.543 or 0.37% to 147.123
• USDCNY increased 0.00244 or 0.03% to 7.30392

The above data was collected around 11.54 EST.

Precious Metals:

• Gold decreased 9.21 USD/t oz. or -0.48% to 1,912.45
• Silver decreased 0.031 USD/t. oz or -0.13% to 23.040

The above data was collected around 11:59 EST.

Some economic news from last night:

Australia:

NAB Business Confidence (Aug) increased from 1 to 2

New Zealand:

Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) increased from 0.0% to 0.7%

Some economic news from today:

India:

CPI (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 7.44% to 6.83%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Economists point out that Germany’s economic weakness is making France’s performance seem better by comparison, even though France’s economy is considered middling within the euro zone. According to the European Commission, Germany is expected to contract by 0.4% and enter a recession, while France is forecasted to grow by 1.0% this year. Weak construction and declining construction investment are negatively impacting Germany’s economic outlook, causing a downgrade from a previous 0.2% growth forecast, whereas France’s outlook has been upgraded from 0.7%. It is anticipated that France’s Ministry will also lower its 2024 growth forecast of 1.6% due to slowing growth in major trade partners, particularly Germany.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:

• CAC 40 decreased 25.39 points or -0.35% to 7,252.88
• FTSE 100 increased 30.66 points or 0.41% to 7,527.53
• DAX 30 decreased 85.46 points or -0.54% to 15,715.53

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD decreased 0.00199 or -0.19% to 1.07281
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00311 or -0.25% to 1.24779
• USDCHF increased 0.0004 or 0.04% to 0.89110

The above data was collected around 12:01 EST.

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jul) increased from 8.4% to 8.5%

Claimant Count Change (Aug) decreased from 7.4K to 0.9K

Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jul) decreased from -66K to -207K

Unemployment Rate (Jul) increased from 4.2% to 4.3%

Spain:

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Aug) increased from 2.3% to 2.6%

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Aug) increased from 2.1% to 2.4%

Germany:

German ZEW Current Conditions (Sep) decreased from -71.3 to -79.4

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) increased from -12.3 to -11.4

Euro Zone:

ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) decreased from -5.5 to -8.9

US/AMERICAS:

Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has endorsed an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, claiming that Biden lied to the American people about his knowledge of his family’s foreign business dealings. The impeachment inquiry will be led by GOP Rep. James Comer, Ky., who chairs the House Oversight Committee, in coordination with Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan of Ohio and Rep. Jason Smith, Mo., who chairs the Ways and Means Committee. Senate Republicans are skeptical that the House has enough evidence to justify an impeachment inquiry. The Republican-led House Oversight committee launched an investigation in January into allegations that Biden profited from his son.

US Market Closings:

• Dow declined 17.73 points or -0.05% to 34,645.99
• S&P 500 declined 25.56 points or -0.57% to 4,461.9
• Nasdaq declined 144.28 points or 13,773.61
• Russell 2000 advanced 0.18 of a point or 0.01% to 1,855.32

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 40.32 points or 0.2% to 20,223.08
• TSX 60 advanced 2.84 points or 0.23% to 1,212.62

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 1,084.78 points or 0.93% to 117,968.12

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 1.626 USD/BBL or 1.86% to 88.916
• Brent increased 1.318 USD/BBL or 1.45% to 91.958
• Natural gas increased 0.1476 USD/MMBtu or 5.66% to 2.7556
• Gasoline decreased 0.0032 USD/GAL or -0.12% to 2.7155
• Heating oil decreased 0.0446 USD/GAL or -1.33% to 3.3176

The above data was collected around 12:04 EST.

• Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (5.66%), Crude Oil (1.86%), Lean Hogs (2.55%) and Cocoa (5.25%)
• Top commodity losers: Rapeseed (-2.81%), Orange Juice (-4.06%), Cheese (-2.46%) and Canola (-1.99%)

The above data was collected around 13:10 EST.

BONDS:

Japan 0.713% (+0.7bp), US 2’s 5.01% (+0.017%), US 10’s 4.2901% (+0.21bps); US 30’s 4.37% (-0.011%), Bunds 2.654% (+1.9bp), France 3.19% (+1.5bp), Italy 4.408% (+1.1bp), Turkey 21.15% (-47bp), Greece 4.076% (+5.8bp), Portugal 3.3880% (+0.5bp); Spain 3.706% (+1.6bp) and UK Gilts 4.422% (-5bp)

The above data was collected around 13:13 EST.