Market Talk – October 12, 2023

ASIA:

India’s youth population has been a source of economic optimism, but declining fertility rates are leading to a rapid aging of the population. According to a recent United Nations report, India’s elderly population (over 60 years old) is expected to grow by 41% between 2021 and 2031, and they will outnumber children under 15 by 2046. Currently, there are 39 elderly individuals for every 100 children in India, and 16 elderly for every 100 working-age people. By 2050, the elderly is projected to make up 20% of India’s population, and by the end of the century, this figure will reach 36%. This demographic shift may pose economic challenges unless India can sustain rapid economic growth in the coming decades.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 558.15 points or 1.75% to 32,494.66
• Shanghai increased 28.95 points or 0.94% to 3,107.90
• Hang Seng increased 345.11 points or 1.93% to 18,238.21
• ASX 200 increased 2.60 points or 0.04% to 7,091.00
• Kospi increased 29.74 points or 1.21% to 2,479.82
• SENSEX decreased 64.66 points or -0.10% to 66,408.39
• Nifty50 decreased 17.35 points or -0.09% to 19,794.00

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD decreased 0.00994 or -1.55% to 0.63136
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00900 or -1.50% to 0.59280
• USDJPY increased 0.642 or 0.43% to 149.792
• USDCNY increased 0.01009 or 0.14% to 7.31029

The above data was collected around 16:29 EST.

Precious Metals:

Gold decreased 4.95 USD/t oz. or -0.26% to 1,868.66

Silver decreased 0.254 USD/t. oz or -1.15%% to 21.806

The above data was collected around 16:31 EST.

No economic news from last night:

Some economic news from today:

India:

CPI (YoY) (Sep) decreased from 6.83% to 5.02%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Euro zone inflation figures are currently reassuring, but concerns exist about oil prices, which recently surpassed $90 per barrel. Belgium’s central bank governor has mentioned that these oil price fluctuations could potentially lead to another interest rate hike by the European Central Bank. The Israel-Hamas conflict has introduced significant instability to the oil market. The International Energy Agency has expressed concerns about the uncertainty related to the conflict and has stated its readiness to take action to maintain adequate market supplies.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:

•  CAC 40 decreased 26.68 points or -0.37% to 7,104.53
•  FTSE 100 increased 24.75 points, or 0.32% to 7,644.78
•  DAX 30 decreased 34.98 points or -0.23% to 15,425.03

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD decreased 0.00865 or -0.81% to 1.05305
• GBPUSD decreased 0.01359 or -1.10% to 1.21751
• USDCHF increased 0.00660 or 0.73% to 0.90850

The above data was collected around 16:35 EST.

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

GDP (MoM) (Aug) increased from -0.6% to 0.2%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) increased from -1.1% to -0.7%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) increased from -1.2% to -0.8%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Aug) increased from 0.2% to 0.3%

Trade Balance (Aug) decreased from -13.91B to -15.95B

Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug) decreased from -2.65B to -4.90B

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker decreased from 0.3% to -0.1%

US/AMERICAS:

In September 2023, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4%, exceeding expectations. The CPI is a closely followed inflation gauge, and this increase indicates a rise in consumer prices. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI increased by 3.7%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 4.1% on a 12-month basis, both in line with expectations. This report comes as Federal Reserve officials are contemplating their next policy moves, with lingering concerns about inflation and worries of upside risks. The increase in consumer prices also led to a decrease in real average hourly earnings, which fell by 0.2% on a monthly basis.

US Market Closings:

• Dow declined 173.73 points or -0.51% to 33,631.14
• S&P 500 declined 27.34 points or -0.62% to 4,349.61
• Nasdaq declined 85.46 points or -0.63% to 13,574.22
• Russell 2000 declined 39.04 points or -2.2% to 1,734.25

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite declined 163.6 points or -0.83% to 19,500.24
• TSX 60 declined 8.33 points or -0.71% to 1,172.81

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 313.79 points or 0.27% to 117,050.74

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil decreased 0.159 USD/BBL or -0.19% to 83.331
• Brent increased 0.658 USD/BBL or 0.77% to 86.478
• Natural gas decreased 0.0417 USD/MMBtu or -1.23% to 3.3353
• Gasoline decreased 0.0319 USD/GAL or -1.44% to 2.1782
• Heating oil increased 0.0435 USD/GAL or 1.45% to 3.0420

The above data was collected around 16:35 EST.

•   Top commodity gainers: Wheat (3.03%), Palm Oil (2.45%), Soybeans (2.81%), and Rhodium (6.10%)
•   Top commodity losers: Oat (-2.75%), Palladium (-2.61%), Platinum (-2.16%), and HRC Steel (-2.93%)

The above data was collected around 16:41 EST.

BONDS:

Japan 0.755%(-1.9bp), US 2’s 5.07% (+0.066%), US 10’s 4.6990%(+10.2bps); US 30’s 4.86% (+0.121%), Bunds 2.783% (+6.5bp), France 3.342% (+6.6bp), Italy 4.798% (+13.3bp), Turkey 25.61% (+13bp), Greece 4.251% (+1.6bp), Portugal 3.504% (+7.2bp), Spain 3.932% (+11.9bp) and UK Gilts 4.425% (+9.6bp).

The above data was collected around 16:44 EST.