Market Talk – November 14, 2023

ASIA:

In October, China experienced a slowdown in consumption rebound and a loss of momentum in private business confidence, as indicated by independent surveys and alternative data. Measures such as an indicator of consumer demand for recreation and transport, a survey of consumer sentiment, and a poll of private business sentiment all showed declines from the previous month, suggesting a bumpy economic recovery in China.

The major Asian stock markets had mixed day today:

• NIKKEI 225 increased 110.82 points or 0.34% to 32,695.93
• Shanghai increased 9.54 points or 0.31% to 3,056.07
• Hang Seng decreased 29.35 points or -0.17% to 17,396.86
• ASX 200 increased 57.90 points or 0.83% to 7,006.70
• Kospi increased 29.49 points or 1.23% to 2,433.25
• SENSEX decreased 325.58 points or -0.50% to 64,933.87
• Nifty50 decreased 82.00 points or -0.42% to 19,443.55

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

• AUDUSD increased 0.01132 or 1.77% to 0.64932
• NZDUSD increased 0.01132 or 1.93% to 0.59872
• USDJPY decreased 0.919 or -0.61% to 150.791
• USDCNY decreased 0.03298 or -0.45% to 7.25852

The above data was collected around 11:46 EST.

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 19.97 USD/t oz. or 1.03% to 1,965.86

Silver increased 0.831 USD/t. oz or 3.73%% to 23.136

The above data was collected around 11:50 EST.

No economic news from last night:

Some economic news from today:

India:

WPI Inflation (YoY) (Oct) decreased from -0.26% to -0.52%

EUROPE/EMEA:

The pound showed a 0.2% increase against the dollar, and almost 0.3% against the euro on Monday, as the Bank of England considers cutting UK interest rates, possibly starting in May. According to Morgan Stanley, policymakers are expected to reduce rates to 4.25% by the end of the next year. The bank anticipates a technical recession in the UK by the end of the year, with the economy contracting by 0.1% in 2024 before a 1% growth in 2025. This potential rate cut is seen as positive news for mortgage borrowers facing increased payments.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:

•  CAC 40 increased 98.62 points or 1.39% to 7,185.68
•  FTSE 100 increased 14.64 points, or 0.20% to 7,440.47
•  DAX 30 increased 269.43 points or 1.76% to 15,614.43

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

• EURUSD increased 0.01624 or 1.52% to 1.08594
• GBPUSD increased 0.02038 or 1.66% to 1.24818
• USDCHF decreased 0.01096 or -1.22% to 0.89064

The above data was collected around 11:56 EST.  

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) decreased from 8.2% to 7.9%

Claimant Count Change (Oct) increased from 9.0K to 17.8K

Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Sep) increased from -82K to 54K

Unemployment Rate (Sep) remain the same at 4.2%

Swiss:

PPI (MoM) (Oct) increased from -0.1% to 0.2%

Spain:

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Oct) remain the same at 3.5%

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Oct) increased from 3.3% to 3.5%

Germany:

German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov) increased from -79.9 to -79.8

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) increased from -1.1 to 9.8

Euro Zone:

GDP (YoY) (Q3) decreased from 0.5% to 0.1%

GDP (QoQ) (Q3) decreased from 0.2% to -0.1%

ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) increased from 2.3 to 13.8

 US/AMERICAS:

In October 2023, the US consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged from the previous month, signaling a potential easing of persistently high prices in the US economy. The CPI, which measures a broad range of commonly used goods and services, increased by 3.2% from a year ago, despite remaining flat for the month. Economists had anticipated a 0.1% increase and a 3.3% rise from the previous year. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 0.2% and 4% annually, slightly lower than the expected 0.3% and 4.1% respectively. This data suggests a potential slowdown in inflationary pressures, with core consumer-price growth cooler than expected, which may impact the Federal Reserve’s decision-making regarding interest rate hikes.

US Market Closings:

• Dow advanced 489.83 points or 1.43% to 34,827.7
• S&P 500 advanced 84.15 points or 1.91% to 4,495.7
• Nasdaq advanced 326.64 points or 2.37% to 14,094.38
• Russell 2000 advanced 92.82 points or 5.44% to 1,798.32

Canada Market Closings:

• TSX Composite advanced 314.58 points or 1.6% to 20,023.73
• TSX 60 advanced 16.97 points or 1.43% to 1,206.14

Brazil Market Closing:

• Bovespa advanced 2,755.59 points or 2.29% to 123,165.76

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

• Crude Oil increased 0.804 USD/BBL or 1.03% to 79.064
• Brent increased 0.65 USD/BBL or 0.79% to 83.170
• Natural gas decreased 0.0356 USD/MMBtu or -1.11% to 3.1614
• Gasoline increased 0.0223 USD/GAL or 1.00% to 2.2582
• Heating oil increased 0.0292 USD/GAL or 1.03% to 2.8685

The above data was collected around 11:59 EST.

•   Top commodity gainers: Silver (3.73%), Palladium (3.91%), Palm Oil (2.68%), and Platinum (2.67%)
•   Top commodity losers: Sugar (-1.62%), Cocoa (-2.62%), Rhodium (-2.27%), and Natural Gas (-1.11%)

The above data was collected around 12:08 EST.

BONDS:

Japan 0.865%(-1.1bp), US 2’s 4.84% (-0.197%), US 10’s 4.4648%(-16.72bps); US 30’s 4.63% (-0.112%), Bunds 2.604% (-11.3bp), France 3.159% (-13bp), Italy 4.409% (-15.1bp), Turkey 27.03% (-14bp), Greece 3.911% (-8.5bp), Portugal 3.313% (-11.7bp), Spain 3.635% (-13.1bp) and UK Gilts 4.155% (-16.4bp).                                    

The above data was collected around 12:20 EST.