Are Betting Odds Better than Polls?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for being so honest. I like how you separate your opinion from the computer. My question is simple. Do you give credence to the betting odds being more accurate than the polls?
See you next week
Frank
ANSWER: The polls are often wrong, and the betting odds do not seem much better. In 2016, the odds of a Hillary victory were 88% compared to 13% for Trump. Our computer called it correctly, as was the case with BREXIT. With over 70 million in early voting, the computer will be correct on the turnout.
More voters (154.6 million) turned out for the presidential election in 2020 than in 2016 (137.5 million), the most significant increase between consecutive presidential elections since record-keeping began in 1964. The problem with the 2020 election was the scare tactics using COVID. The mail-in ballots were 65,642,049. The combined early voting and mail-in during 2016 was only 12.6 million. With early voting exceeding 70 million, this is by far the largest turnout for early voting in history.
