Tariffs to End the War?

Donald Trump has warned Russian President Vladamir Putin to end the war effort in Ukraine or face US sanctions. “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries,” Trump said pm Truth Social. Are tariffs enough to force Putin to withdraw from Ukraine?

Russia exported $2.9 billion in goods from January to November 2024, down from the $4.3 billion the year prior. Russia’s main exports to the US is refined petroleum, platinum, and nitrogenous fertilizers. Refined petroleum in particular is a key Russian import. Does the US have an alternative source for this crucial good, or will they be forced to pay for it at a markup from a third-party nation? The entire concept of tariffs always unintentionally punishes people on both sides of trade relationships, not just the targeted government.

Russia has already begun operating its economy independent of the West. Removing Russia from SWIFT was the lethal blow that ensured Russia needed to immediately reorganize its trade plan. The BRICS alliance has been strong and Russia has secured strong partners outside of the West. Trade with China accounts for over one-third of trade with Russia and has ben the nation’s top trading partner for over 14 years. Russia is China’s fifth largest trading partner in comparison. Total trade volume between the two exceeded $244.8 billion in 2024, marking a 1.9% YoY increase.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov remained undisturbed by the threat of tariffs. “We do not see any particularly new elements,” Peskov said in a drastic understatement. Peskov commented that the Kremlin knows Trump “likes” sanctions and has been prepared. Things have simply escalated too far for Russia to bow out of the war. The reparations would nuke Russia’s economy, and the neocons do not want to see Russia standing as a nation.

Russia no longer needs the US or Europe to support its economy. Politicians have already shunned Russia from global trade with the West, and this threat is baseless. This threat will backfire if implemented and create an inflationary environment for US consumers.