Short v Long-Term Rates

QUESTION: Hi Mr Armstrong, I have read somewhere that you think that interest rates will go up higher than expected and at faster pace. I don’t understand its relations with bonds. Also your opinion seems to be in clear contrast to everyone else who thinks it will go up slowly over the next few years. If this happened this year, this would be one of your many landmark predictions.
thanks

HH

ANSWER: To some extent, you are mixing short v long-term. The short-term is set by the rates the central banks set. Even this will rise beyond what the central bank desires because of demand.

The long-term is set by the market. That is why the central banks tried Quantitative Easing buying in long-term bonds hoping that would lower the long-term rates which are set by the auction process.

I am not forecasting that the central banks will rapidly raise rate all on their own. They will be forced to follow long-term rates and as Quantitative Easing is reduced, rates will rise when government deficits expand because the fiscal side of the balance sheet has been on life-support by the monetary policy.

Latest Posts

Canada Created its Own Trade Barriers

Stéfane Marion, chief economist of the National Bank of Canada, has urged the Canadian government to reconsider their own trade barriers amid criticism of Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. The International [...]
Read more

US Population Rapidly Growing

The population of the United States grew by 1% to 340.1 million in 2024, according to the US Census Bureau, marking the largest population increase since 2000. The nation has [...]
Read more

China Eyes Vacant VW Factories

Germany’s failing auto sector may prove to be an integral power play for China, as Chinese OEMs are eyeing soon-to-be vacant Volkswagen (VW) factories. Volkswagen plans to close at least [...]
Read more

Inflation Soars in Russia

Russia’s CPI reached 9.5% this December as government spending has pulled the reigns away from the central bank. Inflation elevated from 8.9% YoY in November to 9.5%, slightly below expectations [...]
Read more