Is the Thai Baht Finally Ready to Decline Against the Dollar?

QUESTION: The Thai baht has been very strong for some time now. It doesn’t seem to be affected by the China – US trade war. Is the Thai baht a safe haven in your opinion?


ANSWER: Thailand has been benefiting from the China-US trade war as manufacturing has been moving to Thailand from China. Thailand’s automotive industry has contributed to 12% of the GDP with more than 1.94 million vehicles produced. Thailand is now ranked as the largest automotive producer in Southeast Asia and 12th in the world. Many people now call it the “Automotive Hub of Asia.”

On top of that, you have countless Americans who have gone to Thailand to retire on their visa program. Americans can even open bank accounts in Thailand, unlike in Europe. Many have moved out of Bangkok to the southern region in Cho Brui.

People from Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, also known as Burma, often move to Thailand to find work. The Thai economy has been stable and a magnet for foreigners. The culture is one of the friendliest in Southeast Asia, more akin to Japan than Hong Kong. The Thai even take their shoes off at the door as do the Japanese.

As far as the currency is concerned, July fell and bounced off of an important Monthly Bearish Reversal for the dollar. As long as the July low holds, the dollar may now begin to rise simply because of the tensions in Asia as a whole.

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