COMMENT: Dear Martin,
You might find this interesting.
Today the Taal volcano in Luzon, Philippines, erupted in a violent way sending an ash plume as high as 16 km (55.000 ft).
The last time this volcano erupted was in 1977. This is 43 years ago which equals to 5*8.6.
The low solar activity seems to be stirring up things quite a bit.
REPLY: Taal has a long history, and I believe this is the 34th record eruption since the 16th century. I also believe that so far these eruptions are generally VEI 5 or less. Currently, there are warnings that this may be a precursor to a larger eruption.
Taal is very close to Manilla. It is on an island that settlement is forbidden because it has been very active.
The current record-holder remains 2008 when the sun was blank for 268 days making the 2008-2009 solar minimum the deepest since 1913. There have been studies, besides our own correlation models, which have shown that during Solar Minimum, which is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle, there is an increase in volcanic activity. The Dalton Minimum produced the 1816 event known as the Year Without a Summer.
Harvard University explained that the “Maunder Minimum (about 1645-1715) … was responsible for at least 70 years of abnormally cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere.” There appears to be an increase in volcanic activity during these Solar Minimum events. Indeed, at Taal, there were eruptions that took place in 1572, 1591, 1605, 1611, 1634, 1635, 1641, and 1645. There was a gap again until 1707, 1709 followed by 1715, 1716. 1729, 1731, 1749, and 1754 with a gap until and the Dalton Minimum began with 1790, 1825, and 1842. There were subsequent eruptions, some minor, during 1873, 1874, 1885, 1903, 1904, 1911, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1976 and 1977.
Here, there were eruptions at Taal in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 with a gap until 2019 and now 2020 as we are headed back into a Solar Minimum which NASA warns will be the lowest in 200 years. It at least appears that we should expect an increase in earthquakes and volcanic activity going into the next ECM cycle.
This is the crisis with the Climate Change activists for they are blocking any other research for fear that it will reveal there is a natural cycle unfolding, not human-driven.