Market Talk – January 10, 2022

ASIA:

India cut its forecast for economic growth in the year to the end of March to 9.2% on Friday from an earlier outlook of more than 10%, as disruptions due to the Omicron variant of coronavirus hit consumer sentiment and economic activity. The new forecast for real GDP in 2021/22 compares with a contraction of 7.3% in 2020/21 – the fastest expansion among the major economies, the Ministry of Statistics said when releasing its first advance estimates for national income. The economy has been on the mend after the government lifted mobility curbs in June to curb the coronavirus. But after a surge in Omicron cases this week, many private economists have cut growth estimates to near 9% from over 10% estimates earlier. India’s central bank , the Reserve Bank of India, had earlier predicted a growth of 9.5%.

Singapore’s economy grew 7.2 percent last year, rebounding from its worst recession since independence sparked by the coronavirus pandemic, government data showed Monday. The city-state plunged into its worst economic performance in 2020 as businesses, and international borders shut down, choking its trade and tourism economic lifeline. The trade ministry released advance estimates Monday showing the economy expanded by 5.9 percent year on year in the fourth quarter to December. This brought the full-year economic growth to 7.2 percent.

 

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 closed
  • Shanghai increased 13.98 points or 0.39% to 3,593.52
  • Hang Seng increased 253.16 points or 1.08% to 23,746.54
  • ASX 200 decreased 6.20 points or -0.08% to 7,447.10
  • Kospi decreased 28.17 points or -0.95% to 2,926.72
  • SENSEX increased 650.98 points or 1.09% to 60,395.63
  • Nifty50 increased 190.60 points or 1.07% to 18,003.30

 

 

The major Asian currency markets had a negative day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00146 or -0.20% to 0.71678
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00216 or -0.32% to 0.67519
  • USDJPY decreased 0.47 or -0.41% to 115.08
  • USDCNY decreased 0.00051 or -0.01% to 6.38149

 

Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 3.55 USD/t oz. or 0.20% to 1,799.18
  • Silver increased 0.133 USD/t. oz or 0.59% to 22.433

 

Some economic news from last night:

Australia:

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) decreased from 0.3% to 0.2%

Building Approvals (MoM) (Nov) increased from -13.6% to 3.6%

Private House Approvals (Nov) decreased from 4.3% to 1.4%

Indonesia:

Consumer Confidence (Dec) decreased from 118.5 to 118.3

 

 

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

A wave of concern over the swelling cost of living is sweeping across Britain. While households are bracing for higher tax bills and are already being stung by food prices leaping, it is swelling energy costs that will hit hardest in 2022. The UK’s benchmark gas prices have quintupled since January 2021, leaping from £54 per therm to £245 per therm in December 2021. Britain imports a large proportion of its gas supplies from the Continent who, in turn, rely on Russia for around 35 percent of their own natural gas flows. Bulb, the UK’s seventh biggest energy company which recently fell into administration, was buying gas at £4 per therm, up from 50p per therm a year before. However, the price cap, set at £1,277 a year for average use, meant they could only charge consumers 70p.

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

  • CAC 40 decreased 103.71 points or -1.44% to 7,115.77
  • FTSE 100 decreased 40.03 points or -0.53% to 7,445.25
  • DAX 30 decreased 179.47 points or -1.13% to 15.768.27

 

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00299 or -0.26% to 1.13310
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00242 or -0.18% to 1.35657
  • USDCHF increased 0.0075 or 0.82% to 0.92588

 

 

Some economic news from Europe today:

Norway:

Core CPI YTD (Dec) increased from 1.3% to 1.8%

Core Inflation (MoM) (Dec) increased from 0.1% to 0.4%

CPI (YoY) (Dec) increased from 5.1% to 5.3%

CPI (MoM) (Dec) decreased from 0.8% to 0.7%

PPI (YoY) (Dec) increased from 58.6% to 68.7%

Italy:

Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Nov) decreased from 9.4% to 9.2%

Euro Zone:

Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan) increased from 13.5 to 14.9

Unemployment Rate (Nov) decreased from 7.3% to 7.2%

 

US/AMERICAS:

Former Kansas City Fed President stated that he believes inflation is here to stay. “I think given the very strong demand, given the various cost of labor that’s a supply shock, some of the trade issues, I think inflation is going to stay high,” Thomas Hoenig stated. “There’s a lot of still excess consumption ability in the economy with these very high savings rates, so there’s going to be a lot of demand. So, inflation is going to be high and the Federal Reserve is going to have to deal with that.” Hoenig strongly suggests that the Fed select and stick with an approach rather than going back and forth on policy.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida announced that he is resigning before his term ends in the midst of scandal. Similar to other Fed members who resigned in 2021, Clarida has come under harsh scrutiny for what many deem insider trading. “Rich’s contributions to our monetary policy deliberations, and his leadership of the Fed’s first-ever public review of our monetary policy framework, will leave a lasting impact in the field of central banking,” Fed Chairman Powell said in a statement. “I will miss his wise counsel and vital insights.”

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 162.79 points or -0.45% to 36,068.87
  • S&P 500 declined 6.74 points or -0.14% to 4,670.29
  • Nasdaq advanced 6.93 points or 0.05% to 14,942.83
  • Russell 2000 declined 8.66 points or -0.4% to 2,171.15

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 12.13 points or -0.06% to 21,072.32
  • TSX 60 advanced 0.86 of a point or 0.07% to 1,282.56

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 774.27 points or -0.75% to 101,945.2

 

 

ENERGY:

 

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • Crude Oil decreased 0.64 USD/BBL or -0.81% to 78.2600
  • Brent decreased 0.84 USD/BBL or -1.03% to 80.9100
  • Natural gas increased 0.175 USD/MMBtu or 4.47% to 4.0910
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0248 USD/GAL or -1.08% to 2.2776
  • Heating oil increased 0.0081 USD/GAL or 0.33% to 2.4899

 

The above data was collected around 12:58 EST on Monday

 

  • Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (4.47%) and Coal (4.10%), Lithium (2.75%), Rhodium (2.94%)
  • Top commodity losers: Platinum (-2.20%), Palladium (-1.83%), Soybeans (-2.09%), and Lumber (-2.36%)

 

The above data was collected around 13:02 EST on Monday.

 

 

BONDS:

 

Japan 0.124%(+0.7bp), US 2’s 0.8883% (+0.02%), US 10’s 1.7780% (+1.25bps); US 30’s 2.1160% (-0.00%), Bunds -0.036% (-0.7bp), France 0.285% (-0.4bp), Italy 1.312% (-0.7bp), Turkey 23.57% (+33bp), Greece 1.568% (+4.2bp), Portugal 0.608% (+0.4bp); Spain 0.666% (+1.1bp) and UK Gilts 1.186% (+0.6bp).

The post Market Talk – January 10, 2022 first appeared on Armstrong Economics.

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