India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to a three-quarter low of 4.4 percent in October-December 2022-23 primarily due to a 1.1 percent contraction in manufacturing, along with weaker private consumption demand and government expenditure, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. Slowing from 6.3 percent in July-September and 13.2 percent in April-June quarter, the third quarter reflected the impact of subdued consumption demand and exports amid rising input costs and interest rates as the Reserve Bank of India remained focused on “withdrawal of accommodation.” The fourth quarter GDP estimate at 5.1 percent is way higher than the projection of 4.2 per cent for Q4 given by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its December policy review (with FY23 growth estimate at 6.8 percent). Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said manufacturing, on the face of it, has slowed down but there are enough high-frequency indicators showing fairly robust manufacturing activity.
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
Some economic news from last night:
Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.3% to -4.6%
Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) increased from 3.8% to 6.3%
Current Account (Q4) increased from -2.3B to 14.1B
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jan) increased from 0.3% to 0.4%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) increased from -3.9% to 1.9%
ANZ Business Confidence (Feb) increased from -52.0 to -43.3
Some economic news from today:
GDP Quarterly (YoY) (Q3) decreased from 6.3% to 4.4%
Developing a resilient, safe and secure central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the UK, known as the Digital Pound, will take at least five years according to the deputy governor of the Bank of England Sir Jon Cunliffe. This will involve working with the financial services sector and private companies, he told MPs examining the need for such a technology. Developing a resilient, safe and secure central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the UK, known as the Digital Pound, will take at least five years according to the deputy governor of the Bank of England Sir Jon Cunliffe. This will involve working with the financial services sector and private companies, he told MPs examining the need for such a technology. The Treasury announced earlier this month that it would make a decision on whether to launch a Digital Pound by 2025, giving the Bank of England and commercial partners time to test and investigate the technology. It followed a consultation paper published by the Bank of England that said some degree of CBDC would be needed in the future.
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
Some economic news from Europe today:
French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan) increased from -1.6% to 1.5%
French CPI (MoM) (Feb) increased from 0.4% to 0.9%
French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) remain the same at 0.1%
French GDP (YoY) decreased from 1.0% to 0.5%
KOF Leading Indicators (Feb) increased from 97.4 to 100
GDP (YoY) (Q4) remain the same at 0.8%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 0.2% to 0.0%
Spanish CPI (YoY) increased from 5.9% to 6.1%
Spanish HICP (YoY) (Feb) increased from 5.9% to 6.1%
Americans are losing confidence in the US economy as the cost of living continues to rise. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell this February for the second month in a row. The index is now 102.9, beneath January’s reading of 106. The Present Situation Index, calculating consumers’ assessment of the current market conditions, was slightly higher in February coming in at 152.8 compared to last month’s reading of 151.1. However, consumers do not expect these conditions to last. The Expectations Index fell to 69.7 while January’s figure was revised down to 76. The Expectation Index reading below 80 often indicates a looming recession, and in this case, it has been beneath that level for 11 of the last 12 months.
US Market Closings:
Canada Market Closings:
Brazil Market Closing:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
The above data was collected around 13:06 EST on Tuesday
The above data was collected around 13:12 EST Tuesday.
Japan 0.500% (-0.2bp), US 2’s 4.80% (+0.004%), US 10’s 3.9317% (+0.97bps); US 30’s 3.94% (+0.021%), Bunds 2.641% (+5.4bp), France 3.108% (+5.7bp), Italy 4.449% (+2.8bp), Turkey 9.99% (-28bp), Greece 4.482% (+8.3bp), Portugal 3.534% (+6.1bp); Spain 3.67% (+4.8bp) and UK Gilts 3.817% (+0.7bp).