Influence vs Cycles

Timing Models

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but it certainly seems obvious just how many governments are using Socrates. The head of Serbia has come out and said we could be in World War III in three months. Orban came out and said NATO was “getting closer to war” every week, and he refused to participate in the alliance’s long-term plan to aid Ukraine, which Budapest has called a “crazy mission.

My question is, do you think Socrates influenced the time for this?



ANSWER: I understand what you mean. That is actually the same theory as to why they put me in prison to shut me up. They always assume that events can be influenced by merely forecasting them. They believe in random walks because they are incapable of seeing the patterns. They try to manipulate society by themselves, attempting to steer us through their hoops just as they have lied to start every single war, beginning with Vietnam. Yet, when they have constantly been wrong, and their Keynesian Economic Models are failing, all I have ever heard is that I have manipulated the world economy only because the forecasts were correct. That proved, they insist, it was not the model but my influence because that is what they try to do.

NewYorker Cover

I have paid the price for my discovery, and so has my family. There are those who want to force the world to respond as they desire, and all I do is say here is the cycle, and this will be the outcome. They do not like that. This is the secret cycle as the New Yorker called it, because they do not teach cyclical theory in universities because we have to be able to manipulate the future.

I was turned off by formal education because, in real science and physics class, they said there is nothing that is random, but in economics class, I was told everything is random so they can manipulate us to create their perfect world. I figured someone was a liar.

Einsteing dice

I went with Einstein rather than the Marxists. Yes, at this stage, many governments, companies, and individuals around the world subscribe to our services. It is not that they do as the forecast states. Many who disagree still want to know what we are saying.

Many have come to realize that the forecasts are NOT my personal opinion. Real, intelligent people have realized that LONG-TERM forecasts are infallible because a single factor does not change the course of the trend. We are headed into war because we have chronic fiscal mismanagement, and they need war as a distraction and to provide the excuse to default, and then a new government gets to start fresh all over again. That becomes inevitable, but the trend is set in motion, and the government will NEVER reform to save the nation when they must relinquish power.

Short vs Long Term

Most people DO NOT comprehend how forecasting works or the global economy within which we live. There is the short-term NOISE, such as the share market may be up 300 points today and then down 500 tomorrow. Some wish to try to judge you based on that nonsense. The Global Market Watch has demonstrated that there are tens of thousands of patterns that make the short-term appear to be random – but nothing is random, and only a fool makes such an argument. All the numerous short-term trends combine into a single voice, and that resounds loudly through the hall of time and circumstance. It is like politics. Raise taxes, and you get civil unrest. Just look at most revolutions – they are over taxation. Yet politicians will increase taxes always to retain their position of power, and that inevitably leads to revolution. All of the daily ups and downs do NOT alter the long-term trend for that is set in motion that stretches back decades that cannot be altered.

ANAL Fractal


This is why our model is divided by TIME. You can have a 7-day bullish trend on the daily level that is no more than a minor reaction on the Weekly level. The long-term trend cannot be altered by a single event. It is forged in the furnace of life where everything from climate and war to economics and politics combine to make the trend. As they say, such people cannot see the forest because they are focused on a single tree.

MA War Cycle 2011 WEC

Back at the 2011 World Economic Conference in Philadelphia, which you can see in the video, I stood up and warned that the War Cycle would shift in 2014, and that was indeed on target with the Ukrainian Revolution – Maidan of 2014. But in 2013, still one year in advance, I warned:

“Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch”

Nero AE30 Bosporus

So many wars have occurred in Crimea since ancient times that the sum of all the parts enabled the computer to pinpoint Ukraine, where this would all begin. Here is a coin of Nero issued for his intervention into Crimea – the Bosporus at the time.

The LONG-TERM forecasts are much easier to do than where the Dow closes tomorrow. When I die, they should play one of my favorite songs – Sinatra’s My Way! I was lucky to see him live once at the Latin Casino in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. Indeed, I did it my way, and I would not change the past, for that is what has taught me what I know today.

Sinatra Frank 2



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