Market Talk – July 26, 2024

July 26, 2024

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:

 

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 202.10 points or -0.53% to 37,667.41
  • Shanghai increased 4.16 points or 0.14% to 2,890.90
  • Hang Seng increased 16.34 points or 0.10% to 17,021.31
  • ASX 200 increased 60.10 points or 0.76% to 7,921.30
  • KOSPI increased 21.25 points or 0.78% to 2,731.90
  • SENSEX increased 1,292.92 points or 1.62% to 81,332.72
  • Nifty50 increased 428.75 points or 1.76% to 24,834.85

 

 

The major Asian currency markets had a green day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.0017 or 0.26% to 0.65569
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00032 or 0.05% to 0.58923
  • USDJPY increased 0.087 or 0.06% to 153.787
  • USDCNY increased 0.02214 or 0.31% to 7.26215

 

The above data was collected around 14:30 EST.

 

 

Precious Metals:

 

  •  Gold increased 20.65 USD/t oz. or 0.87% to 2,384.42
  •  Silver decreased 0.005 USD/t. oz. or -0.02% to 27.828

 

The above data was collected around 14:33 EST.

 

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

 

The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:

  •  CAC 40 increased 90.66 points or 1.22% to 7,517.68
  •  FTSE 100 increased 99.36 points or 1.21% to 8,285.71
  •  DAX 30 increased 118.83 points or 0.65% to 18,417.55

 

The major Europe currency markets had a green day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.00089 or 0.08% to 1.08602
  • GBPUSD increased 0.002 or 0.16% to 1.28750
  • USDCHF increased 0.00265 or 0.30% to 0.88335

 

The above data was collected around 14:37 EST.

 

US/AMERICAS:

 

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 654.27 points or 1.64% to 40,589.34
  • S&P 500 advanced 59.88 points or 1.11% to 5,459.1
  • Nasdaq advanced 176.16 points or 1.03% to 17,357.88
  • Russell 2000 advanced 36.89 points or 1.66% to 2,259.87

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 204.77 points or 0.91% to 22,812.8
  • TSX 60 advanced 12 points or 0.89% to 1,362.64

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 1,637.04 points or 1.3% to 127,591.13

 

ENERGY:

 

The oil markets had a negative day today:

 

  •  Crude Oil decreased 1.516 USD/BBL or -1.94% to 76.764
  •  Brent decreased 1.569 USD/BBL or -1.90% to 80.801
  •  Natural gas decreased 0.0419 USD/MMBtu or -2.05% to 1.9991
  •  Gasoline decreased 0.0175 USD/GAL or -0.71% to 2.4515
  •  Heating oil decreased 0.0569 USD/GAL or -2.30% to 2.4125

 

The above data was collected around 14:45 EST.

 

  •  Top commodity gainers: Lumber (2.48%), Orange Juice (3.25%), Lead (2.64%) and Cocoa (2.34%)
  •  Top commodity losers: Soybeans (-3.70%), Corn (-6.21%), Canola (-3.36%) and Oat (-3.28%)

 

The above data was collected around 14:58 EST.

It’s a Recession Not a Depression

July 26, 2024

Recession Global

The government insists that the economy is fine, thriving perhaps, and has asked the public to pay no mind to their current financial situation. No one, aside from those living off government assistance, are better off now than they were four years ago. Americans cannot be gas lit into believing the economy is sound when every social-economic group is suffering.

Americans have already lost confidence in the economy and, therefore, in the government.

A recent poll by Affirm found that 3 in 5 Americans believe the US is in a recession, and most believe that recession began in March 2023. Another poll from Guardian/Harris found that 56% of Americans feel that the recession has already arrived. Seven in 10 Americans have reported that they are unable to save for the future. About 68% of respondents from the Affirm poll believe inflation has caused the recession, but few realize what causes inflation.

Credit card debt has reached an all-time high, with 8.9% of balances falling into delinquency as of May 2024. Bankruptcies are on the rise both personal and corporate. A CNN poll discovered that 39% of Americans worry that they may no longer be able to pay their bills. The poll saw similar sentiments during the Great Recession when 37% of Americans feared the next round of bills. Moody’s Analytics believes that household spending has risen $925 per month compared to three years due to inflation. Sixty-five percent of respondents said that the cost of living crisis is the most significant issue our nation faces. Politicians would be wise to focus on domestic issues as the people are on the brink.

Americans are spending more on less as economic conditions have begun to impact the average person’s quality of life. CNN also reported that 35% of adults are taking on second jobs to combat the price of living. Sixty-nine percent are spending less on entertainment, a correlation we have seen with corporate bankruptcies primarily rising in non-essential sectors. Another 41% say they cut down on driving to save on energy costs. Sixty-eight percent of American families have had to cut back on grocery spending, despite US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen denying food inflation entirely.

Bidenomics failed. We are in a recession but not a depression. People hoard when they fear for the future, and that is happening not only as a result of economic conditions but geopolitical tensions and war will cause people to spend less. Then, to fund these wars and other spending packages, the government raises taxes, which is always recessionary. The computer had long warned that the American economy would turn down in May 2024 and not resurface until 2028.

China turns Neutral?

July 26, 2024

War with China

Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Guangzhou met to discuss China’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war. China stated it is “willing to play a constructive role” in peace negotiations, but Ukraine knows that peace has never been an option. This open discussion was a diplomatic move to remind the world that China is not fighting alongside Russia, yet.

Ukraine will never bend a single centimeter if anyone, regardless of where they come from, tries to speak to us in the language of ultimatums,” Kuleba stated, commenting that there is a need for “sustainable peace” and not “the illusion of peace.” Peace agreements happen when both sides are prepared to make sacrifices and that is simply not the case here.

As for China, they are working to rebuild their global reputation as the axis alliance narrative has taken hold. The media and top military generals have warned of the China, Russia, Iran, and North Korean alliance that will threaten global peace. China is simply preoccupied with domestic issues and growing its own economy. China has agreed that it would not provide Russia with weapons, but they will keep lines of trade open as China has refused to deem a strategic partner an enemy.

China stated that “conditions and timing are not yet ripe” for a peace treaty at this time. China would like to remain neutral but its far too late. The Neocons and NATO have their sights set on the One China Policy and using Taiwan as their cannon fodder to reach China in the same manner that they are using Ukraine to reach the Russians.

Never Trust the Secret Service since Elite Bodyguards have a History of Assassinating Heads of State?

July 26, 2024

Nixon drops Secret Service NYT

I have reported how President Richard Nixon had threatened the head of the CIA, saying: “I know who killed JFK.” When he was driven out of office, Nixon refused the protection of the Secret Service. This recent attempted assassination was according to their proven playbook. Use a claimed lone shoot, kill him to make sure there is never a trial, and the problem is eliminated. I have often said that history is merely a map to the future, for human nature never changes.

Sejanus AE As

There were assassinations and attempted assassinations of Roman emperors by rivals and sometimes bureaucrats who were trying to weasel in to grab power, like the story of Sejanus, who had the emperor’s son poisoned by his wife so he could marry her and then take out Tiberius to take the throne. His plot was discovered and terminated with him. There was also the equivalent of the Secret Service in Roman times – the Praetorian Guard, and they were not always trustworthy.

Praetorian Guard

During the Republican period, the equivalent of the Praetorian Guard were generally just bodyguards for elite politicians. It was not until 27 BC that the Senate bestowed the title “Augustus” upon him, and he became the first emperor of Rome. From then on, the Praetorian Guard was established, and they became the emperor’s personal security escort—the ancient version of the Secret Service.

Nixon refused the protection of the Secret Service because he was also a student of history. John O’Hurley is coming out this August with a documentary on Watergate, which he hopes will rehabilitate Nixon’s legacy. I met Nixon on the beach on Long Beach Island years ago after he left the White House. I don’t recall the conversation, but I did get the sense he knew his history. I also recall he did not seem to have Secret Service at the time.

Nixon Kitchen Debate 1959 1959

What the Deep State did to Nixon was to discredit him and his legacy to cover up the dark side of their anti-Democratic thirst for power. This, Nixon’s history, is problematic, for it certainly distorts their accomplishments and his fight against the left and the rising trend of communism, where he honed the style of red-baiting, where he would denounce an opponent as an anarchist, communist, Marxist, socialist, or Stalinist. His famous 1959 Kitchen Debate with Khrushchev established his belief in freedom and capitalism.

There is undoubtedly precedent for fearing the Secret Service. Historically, 13 Roman Emperors were assassinated by their Praetorian Guard – the very elite group who were to guard the emperor. There was roughly a 20.5-year interval on average between these assassinations. It is three such intervals since Kennedy’s assassination on November 22, 1963 – 61 years to 2024, before interestingly the next target was Trump.

 

Killed by the Praetorian Guard

Caligula Bust 1

Caligula (17-41AD)

Galba AU Aureus
Galba (68-69AD)

Commodus AE Portrait

Commodus (177-192AD)

DIVUS Pertinax AE Sestertius
Pertinax (193AD)

Caracalla AE Sestertius Circus Maximus RIC 500a

Caracalla (198-217AD)

Elagabalus Stone of Emesa

Elagabalus (218-222AD)

Pupienus Balbinus

Balbinus (238AD)
Pupienus (238AD)

Gordian III Bust dated

Gordian III (238-244AD)

PHILIP I 1000th anniversary of Rome AR antoninianus
Philip II (244-249AD)

Aurelian Gold Bust
Aurelian (270-275AD)

Probus with Sol AU AureusProbus (276-282AD)

Numerian AE Antoninianus Head Left

Numerian (283-284AD)

 

Market Talk – July 25, 2024

July 25, 2024

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:

 

The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 1,285.34 points or -3.28% to 37,869.51
  • Shanghai decreased 15.21 points or -0.52% to 2,886.74
  • Hang Seng decreased 289.14 points or -1.67% to 17,021.91
  • ASX 200 decreased 102.50 points or -1.29% to 7,861.20
  • KOSPI decreased 48.06 points or -1.74% to 2,710.65
  • SENSEX decreased 109.08 points or -0.14% to 80,039.80
  • Nifty50 decreased 7.40 points or -0.03% to 24,406.10

 

 

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00203 or -0.31% to 0.65533
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00231 or -0.39% to 0.59023
  • USDJPY increased 0.22 or 0.14% to 154.136
  • USDCNY decreased 0.025 or -0.34% to 7.24417

 

The above data was collected around 12:48 EST.

 

 

Precious Metals:

  •  Gold decreased 37.17 USD/t oz. or -1.55% to 2,361.53
  •  Silver decreased 0.99 USD/t. oz. or -3.43% to 27.900

 

The above data was collected around 12:51 EST.

 

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

 

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:

  •  CAC 40 decreased 86.71 points or -1.15% to 7,427.02
  •  FTSE 100 increased 32.66 points or 0.40% to 8,186.35
  •  DAX 30 decreased 88.74 points or -0.48% to 18,298.72

 

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD increased 0.00251 or 0.23% to 1.08629
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00129 or -0.10% to 1.28849
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00501 or -0.57% to 0.88010

 

The above data was collected around 13:01 EST.

 

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 0.2 of a point o 81.2 points to 39,935.07
  • S&P 500 declined 27.91 points or -0.51% to 5,399.22
  • Nasdaq declined 160.69 points or -0.93% to 17,181.72
  • Russell 2000 advanced 27.61 points or 1.26% to 2,222.98

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 31.54 points or -0.14% to 22,608.03
  • TSX 60 declined 1 point or -0.07% to 1,350.62

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 466.81 points or -0.37% to 125,955.92

 

 

ENERGY:

 

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

 

  •  Crude Oil increased 0.562 USD/BBL or 0.72% to 78.152
  •  Brent increased 0.354 USD/BBL or 0.43% to 82.064
  •  Natural gas decreased 0.0481 USD/MMBtu or -2.27% to 2.0689
  •  Gasoline increased 0.0189 USD/GAL or 0.77% to 2.4613
  •  Heating oil increased 0.0194 USD/GAL or 0.79% to 2.4648

 

The above data was collected around 13:03 EST.

 

  •  Top commodity gainers: Lumber (2.32%), Coffee (1.07%), Cotton (1.12%) and Sugar (3.82%)
  •  Top commodity losers: Cocoa (-4.41%), Corn (-3.00%), Natural Gas (-2.27%) and Silver (-3.43%)

 

The above data was collected around 13:08 EST.

 

 

BONDS:

 

Japan 1.0750% (-0.25bp), US 2’s 4.43% (-0.016%), US 10’s 4.237% (-5.6bps); US 30’s 4.48% (-0.067%), Bunds 2.4265% (-1.55bp), France 3.119% (-2.8bp), Italy 3.7820% (-1.6bp), Turkey 28.250% (+23.5bp), Greece 3.487% (+0.2bp), Portugal 3.062% (-3bp); Spain 3.251% (-3.65bp) and UK Gilts 4.137% (-2.27bp)

 

The above data was collected around 13:15 EST.

Kamala is the Elite’s Candidate – Get Over it

July 25, 2024

Harris Kamala

What I am hearing coming down from the Democratic political elites is, DO NOT CHALLENGE KAMALA. Do so at your peril. She checks more boxes than Hillary and has $100 million to spend. So get over it. Kamala for president. The Democrats do not care that the people were denied any means to select the candidate. They are in charge. Just vote for Kamala and stop complaining. This is the first time in my life where the people were denied a right to vote in the primary. World War III is at stake – nobody is going to stop them.

June Home Sales Drop in Line with ECM

July 25, 2024

RealEstate

I noted that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

The National Association of Realtors finally agreed that we are now amid a buyer’s market after June posted the lowest number of sales for 2024 despite a notable rise in inventory. Home sales fell 5.4% in June from May, when the market flipped, to 3.89 million units. This figure is also 5.4% lower than home sales in June 2023.

Gone are the days where buyers would forego inspections and entering bidding wars where the listing price was by no means the final sale price. Inventory from June 2023 to June 2024 has risen 23.4% to 1.32 million available units. Inventory is still a challenge, as are housing prices. The median home cost $426,900 last month, marking a new record-high as well as a 4.1% annual increase.

US_Residential_Real_Estate_Index_Analysis 12 13 23

Homes on the lower end of the spectrum have been keeping averages down. Single-family units between $200K and $350K rose 50% in the past year, according to Realtor.com. There are more homes available now than there have been since May 2020, when sellers reigned supreme. Mortgage rates are far higher than during the 2020 era, and Americans are seeing their available funds dwindling. It is harder for potential buyers to enter the market.

Smart money views mortgages as an alternative to unsecured government debt. Cash remains king with 28% of buyers who have the means opting to forego mortgages entirely, and often can decline high insurance premiums as well. We are also witnessing a mass migration from blue states into red states and should expect prices to decline where there is a dampened demand. It is difficult to view real estate from a national perspective in the United States as demand is up in red states as people continue to leave increasingly oppressive policies regarding taxation, crime, education, and business. If you were thinking of buying a new house right now, lock in the interest rate, for with war on the horizon, long-term rates will rise.

Britain’s Perspective on World War III

July 25, 2024

british_pounds_falling_800_clr_5176

Britain believes the next world war against an “axis of upheaval” will begin within three years. General Sir Roly Walker has issued a warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin will seek revenge against the Western powers who supported Ukraine. He believes China, North Korea, and Iran will form an alliance against the West by 2027 to 2028

The point here is when you think they [the Russians] are down, they will come roaring back to get their vengeance,” Walker said at a recent conference. “That is why you get to this point by… 2027-2028 this convergence may have reached some sort of mutual singularity and your ability to deal with them in isolation – a specific crisis that can be managed by the rules based system – I think is significantly diminished,” he said.

This is in line with our computer models that have long insisted we would see a rise in both international and domestic conflicts throughout most nations by 2027 going into 2028. Britain is already quietly at war with Russia. Our UK array on the 10-year shows higher volatility into 2025.

I explained at the London Seminar that the Brits are extremely effective secretaries and we have a massive amount of data that helps us to predict what is to come. Interest rates rallied up five years to the downtrend line, but during times of war, interest rates must go up. The pound could eventually fall to 80 cents – it’s a confidence factor. As long as people anticipate war, you’re looking at capital outflows.

Everything must be viewed from a global perspective. I also explained in London that Taiwan may cease to exist as a nation by 2028. “A problem in one area is likely to trigger a sympathetic detonation in another and therefore it is a global problem looked at from different perspectives around the world,” Sir Walker stated. The true problem is that the NATO Neocons cannot resist the desire to engage in warfare. They have already set up the stage to attack China over Taiwan. It is not a matter of China becoming sympathetic to Russia, but rather, China has long felt that the international community is interfering in their personal affairs.

The British army will be ready to fight and kill the new formation of axis powers by 2027. Sir Walker believes the British army is outdated in troops and strength and needs to rebuild. Every nation is increasing military spending. There is a cycle to war and sadly it will soon be time for the next conflict.

A Star is Born – Kamala

July 25, 2024

Kamala Harris star is born

The word from behind the curtail is that they want to stick with Kamala because she has the $100 million in the Biden account. This will make it very difficult for anyone else to challenge him. They will need a lot of money. There can still be a shit fight at the convention, and a lot of models are showing that we should expect volatility to rise with the Democratic Convention. Kamala is all over YouTube, and TikTok has become a leading news source for young people. That was the source that gave the Biden administration nightmares in the wake of Israel’s war against Hamas, labeling Biden as a perpetrator of genocide, a white supremacist, and a warmonger. Harris is all over Social Media gathering the less astute people who still believe what politicians say. She is the political version of A Star is Born.

Since Kamala is now a star on TikTok, does that mean that the CCP prefers Kamala to Trump or even Hillary? I wonder who will question whether the CCP now has its finger on the scale for Kamala.

Impeachment of Harris

Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tennessee) has already introduced articles of impeachment against Harris for “high crimes and misdemeanors.” One article is for alleged “willful refusal to uphold the immigration laws,” and another is for “breach of public trust.” As I have said before, when the Democrats impeached Trump twice for absolute nonsense, they were inviting the collapse of civility in the nation. Whatever one side does will only be retaliated by the other side. There is no putting back the chaos they unleashed; it has kept getting worse with all the criminal prosecutions. This leads to the nation being ungovernable, and we might as well return to the justice of the old days as in Game of Thrones – off with the heads and mount them on spikes in the White House as a deterrent to party politics.

 

Hillary_Clinton_Tickets_StubHub

Hillary has been pushing really, really, really hard. She has claimed that she was born for the role of first woman president. Hillary is touring the country desperately, trying to gain support to kick Kamala out. But this is becoming a long shot.

Hilliary Clinton 1

 

Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton (born October 26, 1947) is only five years younger than Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942). She does not represent the face of the next generation. Someone needs to hold up a mirror to her face. The days of burning your bra, Hillary, are long gone. I think you need everything today to help with the sagging body parts.


Any real Communist would certainly support Kamala!

Harris Father

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