Market Talk – February 19, 2025

February 19, 2025

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 105.79 points or -0.27% to 39,164.61
• Shanghai increased 27.05 points or 0.81% to 3,351.54
• Hang Seng decreased 32.57 points or -0.14% to 22,944.24
• ASX 200 decreased 61.80 points or -0.73% to 8,419.20
• SENSEX decreased 28.21 points or -0.04% to 75,939.18
• Nifty50 decreased 12.40 points or -0.05% to 22,932.90
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00025 or -0.04% to 0.63510
• NZDUSD increased 0.00065 or 0.11% to 0.57065
• USDJPY decreased 0.614 or -0.40% to 151.451
• USDCNY increased 0.00812 or 0.11% to 7.28377
The above data was collected around 14:22 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold decreased 4.6 USD/t oz. or -0.16% to 2,929.22
•  Silver decreased 0.128 USD/t. oz. or -0.39% to 32.764
The above data was collected around 14:29 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:
•  CAC 40 decreased 96.02 points or -1.17% to 8,110.54
•  FTSE 100 decreased 54.20 points or -0.62% to 8,712.53
•  DAX 30 decreased 410.87 points or -1.80% to 22,433.63
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.00194 or -0.19% to 1.04266
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00282 or -0.22% to 1.25843
• USDCHF increased 0.00024 or 0.03% to 0.90354
The above data was collected around 14:33 EST.

US/AMERICAS:

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 71.25 points or 0.16% to 44,627.59
  • S&P 500 advanced 14.57 points or 0.24% to 6,144.15
  • Nasdaq advanced 14.99 points or 0.07% to 20,056.25
  • Russell 2000 declined 7.9 points or -0.34% to 2,282.46

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 22.68 points or -0.09% to 25,626.16
  • TSX 60 declined 1.97 points or 0.13% to 1,540.97

 

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa declined 1,222.91 points or -0.95% to

ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•  Crude Oil increased 0.357 USD/BBL or 0.50% to 72.187
•  Brent increased 0.229 USD/BBL or 0.30% to 76.039
•  Natural gas increased 0.2697 USD/MMBtu or 6.72% to 4.2837
•  Gasoline decreased 0.0031 USD/GAL or -0.15% to 2.0862
•  Heating oil increased 0.0233 USD/GAL or 0.96% to 2.4569
The above data was collected around 14:36 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (6.72%), Palm Oil (4.15%), Sugar (1.03%) and Cheese (1.43%)
•  Top commodity losers: Orange Juice (-3.70%), Wheat (-2.14%), Lean Hogs (-3.81%) and Cotton (-2.02%)
The above data was collected around 14:43 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 1.4400% (+0.4bp), US 2’s 4.28% (-0.034%), US 10’s 4.5380% (-1.8bps); US 30’s 4.77% (-0.012%), Bunds 2.5555% (+6.5bp), France 3.242% (+8.4bp), Italy 3.6460% (+10.1bp), Turkey 26.04% (-3bp), Greece 3.400% (+9bp), Portugal 3.07% (+5.8bp); Spain 3.226% (+7.2bp) and UK Gilts 4.6130% (+5.36bp)
The above data was collected around 14:45 EST.

Labour Party to Increase Migrant Spending by 30%

February 19, 2025

Britain permitted their borders to be invaded without a shot fired. The taxpayer must take on the responsibility of these open border policies that has led to increased crimes, toppled budgets, and an ever-changing society. The latest news from Downing Street is that the Labour Party is looking to increase spending on illegal migrants by 30% or £47 million per year to £61 million.

The Labour Party claims that they are committed to reducing the asylum backlog, end hotel use and increase returns.” A good portion of the increased funding will go toward legal aid to help illegal migrants bypass the system. As a reminder, there are at LEAST 1.2 million undocumented migrants living in the UK, but we should expect the true figure to be much higher. The government admits they lost track long ago. Around 70% of the unvetted individuals who show up at the borders are granted entry.

NHS UK

Asylum seekers are entitled to FREE healthcare from the National Health Service (NHS). “You may be able to get housing and money to support you and your family while you’re waiting to find out if you’ll be given asylum,” the National Asylum Support Service (NASS) promotes on its website. The NASS will pay for housing and free education for all migrants, even those who have been DENIED asylum.

The government does not want to admit to the mass crime wave sweeping the nation as these people fail to integrate into society. As of March 2024, 12% of the UK’s prison population were foreign nationals. Foreign nationals have a higher rate of imprisonment than citizens, with 18.2 inmates per 10,000 migrants compared to 14 per 10,000 citizens.

UKGirlsStabbingCrimeMigrant

Many had hoped the nation would back away from European policies after Brexit, but the people voted for a party that has the same ideals as Brussels. “Every illegal migrant that crosses the English Channel now costs you the taxpayer £41,000. That is an increase of over 140% since 2019,” Nigel Farage stated in October 2024. Farage has come under fire for advocating for a freeze on non-essential migration. He has noted that the UK would need to build one new dwelling every two minutes to keep up with the demand for housing, largely due to the mass influx of migrants. The NHS has experienced longer wait lists than before as the healthcare system is overwhelmed.

Muhammad has been the most popular boy baby name in the UK in recent years. The UK has lost its identity and is no longer a Christian nation. Pew Research Center believes that Muslim women will have more children than Christian women by 2035, and Islam could become the most followed religion in the world. Build Back Better nations are becoming unrecognizable as the very essence of their cultures and traditions are challenged.

When will the madness end? Each year, the government demands that citizens pay more for illegal migrants. The Labour Party has completely undermined Britain’s economic stability with its socialist agenda. And now they also want to send troops on the ground in Ukraine? The persistent economic downturn is inevitable.

Homebuilder Sentiment Down as Tariffs Loom

February 19, 2025

Tariffs

Tariff threats have dampened homebuilding confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped five points from January into February to a reading of 42, the lowest reading in five months.

Builders were initially hopeful that the Trump administration would remove some red tape regulations to streamline the process. However, these tariffs are guaranteed to cause the price of construction to soar, especially in relation to steel, aluminum, and lumber. “With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz wrote in a statement.

Trump believes the US can simply produce everything domestically with little pushback. “We don’t need their lumber, because we have our own forests,” the US president famously said at Davos. Yet, the US relies on Canada for at least a quarter of its lumber. Spring building season is now coinciding with when these 25% tariffs may be implemented.

Builders are also concerned about mortgage rates, with Freddie Mac showing the average fixed 30-year at around 7% at the time of this writing. The low rates seen during COVID are not returning. Inventory across the US has increased but demand has waned. The NAHB reported that 26% of builders cut home prices this month after 30% of builders were forced to do so in January.

These tariff games have backfired as businesses across sectors cannot accurately gauge the cost of materials.

Emissions Impossible

February 19, 2025

CO2 Green House Warming

Justin Trudeau continually touts that Canada is on track to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Of course, all of the politicians claiming that they can meet this target will not be in politics long enough to execute the plan. In fact, numerous studies have found that it will be impossible to meet net zero by 2050, no matter how much governments spend on climate change.

The Fraser Institute found that Canadian workers will be paying C$8,000 annually by 2050 to meet these impossible targets. The institute believes that as a result of the climate agenda, real GDP will decline by 7%, and income will decline by 6% per worker, resulting in 250,000 fewer jobs.  Simulating the Emission Reduction Plan (ERP) into 2050 would, at best, lead to a 70% reduction in CO2 emissions.

The study then began looking at the carbon tax. Forcing companies to pay C$400 per tonne could decrease emissions by 68%, but tripling that figure to C$1,200 would only result in an additional 6% decline. These measures could cause GDP to fall a massive 18%, with incomes declining by 17%.

Kenneth Green in “Rapid Decarbonization of Electricity and Future Supply Constraints” noted that Canada simply does not have the infrastructure to support these lower carbon goals. “Canada would need to rapidly build infrastructure on a scale never before seen in the country’s  history,” Green stated. He estimates that the nation would need an additional 684 TWh of electricity by 2050 to meet demand. Green believes Canada would need around 16 new nuclear power plant facilities, which he estimates would take 112 years to complete.

Wind power is not a reliable alternative. Canada would need to build 575 new wind-power installations, which would take an estimated 1,150 years to complete and 1 million hectares of land. Solar is not an option. Canada would need 840 solar generating stations and 1,680 years to complete by 2050. Green did not factor in the regulations and legalities in approving such projects.

Some have deemed the Paris Accord and other nations heightened pledges “emissions impossible.” There is no feasible way for nations to simply eliminate carbon emissions. Yet, that will not prevent governments from extorting the people for a scheme that is doomed to fail.

Trump & Musk – DC Says they are the Barbarians at the Gate

February 19, 2025

Unelected Musk

The Democrats are freaking out that their get-rich-as-public-servants are being exposed. I find it ironic that they claim that nobody voted for Musk. I do not recall voting for the head of ANY agency standing for election. The people do not get to pick even the vice president, Speaker of the House, or the head of any party. They call DOGE the “barbarians at the gate,” tearing apart their feeding trough. That means they are doing a good job.

Pig Congress

Musk now posted: “The Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) is an identification code linking a Treasury payment to a budget line item (standard financial process),” DOGE wrote in a post on X. “In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 Trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost impossible. As of Saturday, this is now a required field, increasing insight into where money is going.”

 

OMG – These people in Washington will actually have to live off of the

few hundred thousand they get in salaries only?

Washington in Meltdown as Bureaucrats Flee

February 18, 2025

WikiLeaks.SwissBankSearches

(“Swiss bank” (yellow), “offshore bank” (green), “wire money” (red) and “IBAN” (blue))

Google search results for “lawyer” have skyrocketed by 400% in Washington D.C. since Trump took office, according to WikiLeaks and Google Trends. The elites in Washington already have lawyers and methods to conceal their backdoor dealings, but their aids and others are scrambling to save face before Trump drains the swamp.

Think it’s a coincidence? Searches for “Swiss bank,” “wire money,” “IBAN,” and “offshore bank” have all soared in D.C. since January 20. “Cayman Island” and “Swiss bank” searches have suddenly spiked as well, but again, the elites already have their dirty money set aside and know that Swiss banks are no longer confidential. Peculiar that people near the capital suddenly want to move their money off the grid as DOGE takes a closer look at the Treasury.

WIKILEAKsearcheserasewipe

Searches for “wipe” and “erase” suddenly spiked as well. Perhaps most damning is the soaring search for “statue of limitations.” Good news for those tampering with US law as the statue of limitations is quite short for federal workers. Federal Tort Claims Act (FTCA), for example, requires claims to be filed within 2 years of an incident. Then the claim must be resolved within 6 months. A legal team would also need to prove that a public servant knowingly violated the law in order to remove qualified or sovereign immunity. The statue of limitations for treason is only five years.

WIKIleaksStatueLimitations

“The statute of limitations for treason in the United States is generally considered to be five years. This is outlined under 18 U.S.C. § 3286, which states that no person shall be prosecuted, tried, or punished for any non-capital offense involving treason unless the indictment is found within five years after such offense shall have been committed.”

Of course, there are two tiers of justice and US law protects US public servants who commit crimes against the people they pledged to serve.

Then, we have an exceeding number of multi-million dollar homes in the area that went on the market back in November. Some are calling this trend the “Trump bump” as the bureaucrats are scattering like flies of shit to flee Washington. Only eight houses over $5 million in D.C. were on the market last year. There were 20 such home sales in November and December alone with numerous cash offers coming in. Overall, over 60 multi-million dollar homes have sold from the D.C. market since Trump was elected. Yes, there was an exodus from D.C. after Trump offered government employees a buyout but those are not the people buying and selling <$5 million homes. And if they are, one must question why or how public servants can afford such luxuries without some form of lobbying or rerouted money.

Washington is in absolute in an absolute meltdown. The house of cards is falling as Trump and his team turn on the lights to the dark dealings throughout D.C.

Starmer Wants to Send British Troops to Ukraine

February 18, 2025

Starmer.Zelensky.Uk_.Ukraine

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is willing to send young Brits to die in the war against Russia. Readers on this blog realize that this is a war AGAINST RUSSIA with nearly the entirety of the West backing Moscow into a corner. Brits said loud and clear that they did not want to be part of the European Union or a one Europe government, but now they must die to protect the continent from a nonexistent threat.

“I feel very deeply the responsibility that comes with potentially putting British servicemen and women in harm’s way. But any role in helping to guarantee Ukraine’s security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent and the security of this country,” Starmer said in an op-ed for Telegraph.

Merely arranging peace discussions has been a nightmare. Zelensky said he would not accept the outcome if he was not present. Europe wants to be present, but Russia would NEVER trust any EU nation to negotiate a peace deal after it was deceived through the fake Minsk Agreements. Putin does not see Zelensky as the legitimate leader of Ukraine since he has prevented the people from holding an election. Everything is an utter disaster, but numerous world leaders believe they need to send troops to Ukraine to help preserve “peace.”

Starmer said he is prepared to spend $4 billion to protect Ukraine in the next five years into 2030. “But it also means being ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary,” Starmer went on to say.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been eager to send troops off to Ukraine, as has Germany, Estonia, and Lithuania. NATO member nations are ready for the REAL war to begin. They will have their troops or “peacekeepers” positioned when the time is right to strike. NATO has no grounds to invade Russia, nor does it have the backing of NATO’s piggy bank, the United States. Hence why European leaders want to send their men and women to the battlefield before any such “peace” talks can begin.

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