10% of Massachusetts Residents on Welfare

October 14, 2024

 

The welfare state has exploded under Biden-Harris. Democrat-run Massachusetts recently revealed that they added an astounding 672,483 people to its EBT card and welfare programs, a 34.6% increase in a 14-month period! These figures indicate that 10% of the entire state is currently on welfare.

State Senator Ryan Fattman is demanding an audit, believing this uptick in welfare recipients correlated with the $3.1 spending package for migrants that passed in December 2023. Yet, migrants are allegedly not qualified to receive EBT or food stamps. How else could such a large portion of the state’s population end up on welfare in such a short amount of time?

Massachusetts capital

The unemployment rate reached 3.7% in Massachusetts this August, up by 0.2% from the month prior, but 0.5% lower than the national average. Labor force participation remains at 66.3%, the highest for the state since June 2020. There is no reason that resident in Massachusetts should be experiencing poverty at such a significant rate compared to the rest of the US.

Government programs are ineffective because they are prone to greed. These agencies rarely pass audits during the off chance someone bothers to conduct one. All we hear is how the state and federal governments simply have ran out of money and aid, when in all reality, they have no idea where or why their funds are dwindling.

The Drone Wars

October 14, 2024

WAR DRONE

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you previously said the US would find it difficult to actually defend Taiwan. I would greatly appreciate if you could elaborate on that scenario.
HJ

ANSWER: If you look at all of the fighter jets that the US could deploy from the F15, F16, F22, and F35s, they have a serious drawback when we look at Taiwan. They generally have a range of 500 to 600 miles with a meaningful payload of weapons. The ONLY US air base that could be used to defend Taiwan is Kadena in Japan’s Okinawa prefecture. That is 450 miles from Taiwan. If China were to invade, an all out war one would expect that the Chinese would rain down missiles on Kadena most likely rendering that base in operable. If the fighters took off, they may not have a base to return to in a serious confrontation.

Yes, the USAF could deploy aerial tankers to extend a fighter’s range by hundreds of miles. However, such tankers are slow and very vulnerable under such conditions. This is why the requirements for the Next Generation stealth fighter has been to extend its range. The USAF at least temporarily paused the this project raising questions about the ability to defend Taiwan. They claimed it was the cost was too high. The Ukraine War has highlighted the rising importance of using unmanned drones perhaps using AI-assisted rather than fighter jets.

The traditional tactics from WWII and the Korean War are giving way to drone technology. These drones could extend the flight path to even 900 miles. Instead of billions of dollars for jets, they can use drones costing tens of millions, still way over prices to keep the Military Industrial Complex from going on welfare. Drones could then operate from small island airstrips in The Philippines. Now you see why the Philippines has been a concern for China.

What you are more likely to see is the new stealth generation fighters may be support craft for the drones as the support ships for aircraft carriers. They could in theory control the drones as sort of a mother-ship. All of this is being driven by the expectation that war is coming with China.

3rd Attempt to Kill Trump?

October 14, 2024

Miller Vern

US sheriff of Riverside California County Chad Bianco said they ‘probably prevented’ an alleged third Trump assassination attempt. This suspect faces firearms charges but denies he tried to harm former US president and Republican candidate. Nevertheless, this appears to be just a copy-cat rather than a planned assassination by dark forces.

The man, identified as 49-year-old Nevada resident Vem Miller, was taken into custody without incident, the sheriff’s office said in a statement earlier in the day. He had unregistered loaded firearms and multiple passports with different names, an unregistered vehicle with a fake license plate.

This guy may not be connected to the cabal. Nevertheless, Trump is certainly not out of the woods as they say. This illustrates why the United State will break up. All of the hatred hurled at Trump has undermined the entire political system and the LEFT has ensured that the United States will not be able to remain united.

Socrates vs AI Neural Nets

October 13, 2024

Shanghai W Array 10 10 24

QUESTION: Why is Socrates able to do forecast wild panics in China when nobody else can? It picked the turning point for week of ninth which was the lowest close on the September 5 report. All this hype about AI but Socrates is so different. I’m not a programmer. Can you explain this is layman’s terms. This has been amazing here in Shanghai – Nǐ tài bàng le.

LW

ANSWER: What I can say is that 99% of what is out there is not AI. There are language models that are amazing like ChatGPT. A reader asked ChatGPT what is the difference with Socrates. Here is the response:

As an AI language model, I differ from the Socrates Platform in several ways.

Firstly, the Socrates Platform is a web-based platform developed by Martin Armstrong and his team at Armstrong Economics, 
whereas I am a language model developed by OpenAI. The Socrates Platform is designed to analyze economic and financial data 
in real-time, predict market trends, and provide actionable insights to investors and traders. In contrast, I am designed 
to assist with a wide range of tasks, including language translation, question answering, and text generation.

Secondly, the Socrates Platform uses artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing to analyze 
data, whereas I am primarily focused on natural language processing. The Socrates Platform uses sophisticated algorithms 
to analyze historical and cultural data to inform its predictions, whereas my responses are based on the input provided 
to me by the user.

Lastly, the Socrates Platform is primarily designed for financial professionals, investors, and traders, whereas I am 
designed for a broader range of users, including students, researchers, and general knowledge seekers. While both the 
Socrates Platform and I use artificial intelligence to analyze data and provide insights, our intended audiences and 
applications differ significantly.

Yes, the two platforms are completely unrelated aside from being driven by AI. ChatGPT does not have the computing capabilities of Socrates. It does not have the monetary history data, for starters as well as the analytical skills. ChatGPT has no involvement in the financial world and was not designed for financial purposes.  Most importantly, ChatGPT does not have the true ability  to reason that is the key to Socrates’ successful forecasts. ChatGPT is a great achievement and a step in the right direction for AI use on a larger scale of providing a tool, but it is not true reasoning as we know it. Therefore, it is not possible to compete where you do not have even the same end goal. Socrates is in a league of its own. I trained it personally from a trader’s experience as a hedge fund manager and someone who has actually had under advisory the equivalent of up to 50% of the US national debt. How big money moves is entirely different from an individual investor.

Neural Network

The complexity of the markets globally is far beyond description. I have experimented with Neural Nets and other interesting attempts to recreate the structure of the human mind. Neural Nets are notoriously subject to complete failures. There is no such program that has been able to demonstrate consistency in the field of economics and you cannot throw in a heap of data and expect it to figure the world out by itself.

This is all due to complexity. This theory that a computer can become sentient has provided the movie industry with some great movies from Terminator to Matrix. The idea is that we are just a super computer. Our  SENTIENT existence has been proposed that just the connections in our brain creates the capability of sensing or feeling – consciousness.

IBM Watson on Jeopardy

There is a lot of misguided hope surrounding Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. All we need to do is look objectively at IBM project WATSON. Just over a decade ago, artificial intelligence (AI) made one of its showier forays into the public’s consciousness when IBM’s Watson computer appeared on the American quiz show Jeopardy. Watson’s debut performance against two of the show’s most successful contestants was televised to a national viewership across three evenings. In the end, the machine triumphed comfortably. This is just the ability to look up answers faster than a human employing no actual understanding of what the answer means in the real world.

They kept Einstein’s brain. The analysis of his brain put forth a number of unusual features, that some tried to attribute to his intelligence. One thing was an asymmetrical parietal lobes that were 15% wider than normal. Some researchers believe this may have contributed to his mathematical, visual, and spatial skills. What I can attest to is the ability to see patterns. The best traders have been visual in nature. This is why the fundamentalists tend to get wiped out because they often attempt to return complexity to a single relations – Fed raises rates so stocks down. It is very primitive to say the least.

Scorpio Constalation

Our ancient ancestors were far more intelligent than what we attribute to them. They saw patterns in the stars and mapped the heavens. It was the ability to see patterns and understand cyclical movements over everything that advanced civilization before the Dark Age when knowledge was lost thanks to the barbarian invasions.

Stonehenge

They aligned that monuments with the summer and winter solstices. The Miya even discovered the precession of the equinox of 25,800 years measuring the movement of the stars. They had aligned temples to the stars and then noticed that the stars had moved. Understanding everything was a cycle, they determined it would return to its origin in 25,800 years. We lost our ability to see cycles post-Dark Age and we ended up with the assumption that everything was simply linear.

Eratosthenes c. 276BC–195 194BC

The ancients even had the concept of the atom during the long forgotten golden age of  Greece. There were ancient step counters known as bematists who measured distances that we know had better than 95% accuracy. In 240BC, Eratosthenes employed this skill to extrapolate the circumference of the Earth that they knew was round – not flat. The knowledge of cycles survived from ancient times is the East. It was the fall of Rome in the West when the barbarians were not interested in knowledge so everything was torched.

Hipparchus of Rhodes observed around 150 BC that the equinoxes moved wit h time. This is where the Sun’s path crosses the celestial equator. He realized that these were not fixed in time and space but traveled in a cyclical manner. The movement was extremely slow in a westerly direction. This amounted to but less than 2° in about 150 years. This slow movement is known as the “Precession of the Equinoxes” and requires generations to even observe. It is about 1° movement every 72 years, bringing this also to a virtual number that is a derivative of 8.6 – 25,800 years.

Geometry of Throught Nesbet

Richard E. Nesbett wrote a good book entitled “The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently … and why.” He attributed his work to a Chinese student who said: “You know, the difference between you and me is that I think the world is a Circle, and you think it’s a line.” He goes on to quote him:

“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”

1 When Genius Failed

The effort to create option models known as BlackScholes completely broke down and resulted in the Long-Term Capital Management debacle. That was covered in the book – When Genius Failed. The failure took place because they did not have the database. They only tested the algorithm back to 1971. Indeed, you need hundreds of years of data to just comprehend the beginning of complexity.

Neuromorphic engineering is yet another concept developed back in the late 1980s. Thus, neuromorphic differs from neural networks which are a set of algorithms, modeled loosely on the theory of how the human brain functions. They were designed to recognize patterns such as trying to distinguish between the cat, dog, and a cup of coffee. They attempt to create very large-scale integration (VLSI) systems containing electronic analog circuits to mimic neuro-biological architectures that are present in the nervous system. This neuromorphic is really more hardware-based but also requires a software operating system.

Transcendence

The implementation of neuromorphic computing has raised the theory that perhaps one day we will be able to copy the content of the brain into a synthetic replacement as in the movie “Replicas” and then there is the move by Johnny Deep – Transcendence. The actual key aspect of neuromorphic computing is understanding how the morphology of individual neurons, circuits, applications, and overall architectures create learning and development constituting who we are. I would not consider this a technology that would be able to become a synthetic mind replacement for quite some time, assuming we could ever get to that level of understanding the complexity of the human brain.

What I explain to people about this complexity is perhaps to had dinner with someone and fell in love. You will remember the place, but you mind is recording everything without you directing it to do so. You hear a song that was playing and suddenly your mind recalls that event unintentionally. Or you had ordered oysters for the first time and you see them again years later and your mind accesses that memory. In truth, that memory could be unintentionally accessed by any of the senses. This demonstrates everything is an access path individually or even in combination.

Obviously, Socrates is a hybrid between neuromorphic computing and neural networks. I chose a different path entirely actually creating a synthetic network capable of learning by example and pattern recognition, such as the Global Market Watch, but expressly targeted to global analysis. I input my own analytical abilities and experience into Socrates as far as methodology in how to conduct analysis but no fixed rules like interest rates up stocks down. Socrates has been free to explore the entire world database and return with answers. It has weather, volcanoes, climate, and disease databases. Everything is vital to understanding how things function.

GMW DJING 1919 1925

The Global Market Watch is purely pattern recognition where it is identifying patterns and assigning them a number you see with comment for its catalog of market patterns. It has exceeded more than 100,000 patterns, demonstrating the true complexity of market movement based upon a matrix of variables. It has also proven that those patterns observed in wheat are applicable to even individual stocks. This has confirmed that the patterns are human responses to price movement. It has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that fundamental analysis is not only worthless for its myopic focus on one-dimensional relationships, but the common link is human behavior — not the underlying instrument. We are looking at HOW humans will interact with whatever the instrument might be to establish why history repeats because human nature never changes throughout millennia.


This is Why they Really Hate Trump

October 12, 2024

 

We are like cockroaches. There are too many of us so war is profitable to both sides and they reduce their future liabilities by thinning the herd while filling their pockets. Here in Tampa, Trump had a team on developing the exit strategy for Afghanistan. When Biden came to office, they were dismissed because Trump ordered the team. Anything Trump did was simply reversed and that was not limited to closing the border.

A 3rd Plot to Assassinate Trump?

October 12, 2024

 

COMMENT: Well, it looks like Trump’s people are at least listening to you that a third attempt may be shooting down his plane and blaming it on Iran. Your sources have always been the best.

Please keep up the work.

Hal

REPLY: Perhaps. Yes, I am concerned that they have run out of shooters and the last one is still alive for now, but the DOJ asked for an indefinite trial, which is unconstitutional, and they block Florida from any independent investigation. It has been my concern that they would shoot down his plane and then blame it on Iran to get the MAGA people on the war footing and divert any domestic conspiracy theories.

Trump Not My President

I am glad that the Trump campaign has requested use of military protection. Biden, I believe, had not choice. There are those in DC who realize that killing Trump may lead to very serious civil unrest and even could result in the military splitting resulting in civil war. The Democrats have gone way too far in demonizing Trump and will get a return to he is not my president.

The politics has been so polarized there is no return to we are all American any more. That movie Civil War did not spell out the WHY. They could not else it would have been banned from theaters. But this line from that movie does say it all.

Market Talk – October 10, 2024

October 11, 2024

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 224.91 points or 0.57% to 39,605.80
• Shanghai decreased 84.19 points or -2.55% to 3,217.74
• Hang Seng closed
• ASX 200 decreased 8.50 points or -0.10% to 8,214.50
• SENSEX decreased 230.05 points or -0.28% to 81,381.36
• Nifty50 decreased 34.20 points or -0.14% to 24,964.25
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD increased 0.00166 or 0.25% to 0.67571
• NZDUSD increased 0.00208 or 0.34% to 0.61160
• USDJPY increased 0.362 or 0.24% to 149.067
• USDCNY decreased 0.01119 or -0.16% to 7.07223
The above data was collected around 13:35 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold increased 24.75 USD/t oz. or 0.94% to 2,657.90
•  Silver increased 0.388 USD/t. oz. or 1.25% to 31.538
The above data was collected around 13:40 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 36.30 points or 0.48% to 7,577.89
•  FTSE 100 increased 15.92 points or 0.19% to 8,253.65
•  DAX 30 increased 162.93 points or 0.85% to 19,373.83
The major Europe currency markets had a green day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00095 or 0.09% to 1.09430
• GBPUSD increased 0.00127 or 0.10% to 1.30738
• USDCHF increased 0.00025 or 0.03% to 0.85687
The above data was collected around 13:52 EST.

US/AMERICAS:

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 409.74 points or 0.97% to 42,863.86
  • S&P 500 advanced 34.98 points or 0.61% to 5,815.03
  • Nasdaq  advanced 60.89 points or 0.33% to 18,342.94
  • Russell 2000 advanced 45.44 points or 2.08% to 2,233.86

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 166.22 points or 0.68% to 24,468.48
  • TSX 60 advanced 9.43 points or 0.65% to 1,464.14

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 346.34 points or -0.27% to 130,006.52
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 0.137 USD/BBL or -0.18% to 75.713
•  Brent decreased 0.099 USD/BBL or -0.12% to 79.301
•  Natural gas decreased 0.0306 USD/MMBtu or -1.14% to 2.6444
•  Gasoline increased 0.0143 USD/GAL or 0.67% to 2.1606
•  Heating oil increased 0.0019 USD/GAL or 0.08% to 2.3464
The above data was collected around 13:56 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Cocoa (3.30%), Cheese (7.49%), Orange Juice (4.44%) and Wool (3.17%)
•  Top commodity losers: Oat (-0.86%), Natural Gas (-1.14%), Palladium (-1.58%) and Coffee (-0.94%)
The above data was collected around 14:06 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 0.9520% (-0.69bp), US 2’s 3.95% (-0.012%), US 10’s 4.0810% (+1.6bps); US 30’s 4.39% (+0.017%), Bunds 2.2585% (+0.55bp), France 3.039% (+1.6bp), Italy 3.5470% (+1.4bp), Turkey 29.515% (+185.5bp), Greece 3.204% (-0.9bp), Portugal 2.765% (+2.4bp); Spain 3.005% (+1.8bp) and UK Gilts 4.2070% (-0.52bp)
The above data was collected around 14:12 EST.

CB One App

October 11, 2024

J.D. Vance brought up the topic of the CB One application during his debate with Tim Walz. The majority of Americans were largely unaware that the federal government has been operating a special app to fast-track asylum status to migrants throughout the world.

The app was first launched in October 2020, designated as a single portal to Customer and Border Protection (CBP). However, in January 2023, the Biden-Harris administration repurposed the app to streamline the process of permitting migrants into the country. “So there’s an application called the CBP One app where you can go on as an illegal migrant, apply for asylum or apply for parole and be granted legal status at the wave of a Kamala Harris open border wand. That is not a person coming in applying for a green card and waiting for 10 years. That is the facilitation of illegal immigration,” Vance said on the debate stage.

Between June 2023 and June 2024, over 170,000 migrants accessed CBP One to quickly enter the United States. Haitians, Mexicans, and Venezuelans have been the primary users of this app. The app saw 1,450 appointments per day in June, a 50% uptick from the month prior. Anyone from any nation can simply sign up, enter America, and receive their free taxpayer-subsidized life.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has not detailed the cost of creating or operating the app, despite questions from politicians like Senator Josh Hawley. “Under your leadership, the Department is marketing a new phone app, called CBP One, that allows unauthorized migrants to reserve a time to cross the border, like making a restaurant reservation. How convenient,” wrote Senator Hawley. He continued, “I imagine there are plenty of Americans who would appreciate this level of service from their government. Your choice to spend untold sums of taxpayer money—you said you had no idea what it cost—on concierge service for illegals is baffling. It is also revealing. It demonstrates your priorities: open borders, no matter the cost to Americans; no matter the jobs lost, the wages lost, the drugs flooding our schools.”

The truth is that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have no budget when it comes to the migrants as they will spend everything and then some to flood America with illegal migrants. Then they turn around and say they’ve run out of funds for their own citizens who have been paying into the system their entire lives. CBP One is like an Open Table reservation app that lets absolutely anyone come to America to leech off our resources.

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