Market Talk – December 17, 2024

December 17, 2024

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 92.81 points or -0.24% to 39,364.68
• Shanghai decreased 24.85 points or -0.73% to 3,361.49
• Hang Seng decreased 95.01 points or -0.48% to 19,700.48
• ASX 200 increased 64.50 points or 0.78% to 8,314.00
• SENSEX decreased 1,086.08 points or -1.33% to 80,662.49
• Nifty50 decreased 332.25 points or -1.35% to 24,336.00
The major Asian currency markets had a negative day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00331 or -0.52% to 0.63374
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00227 or -0.39% to 0.57578
• USDJPY decreased 0.664 or -0.43% to 153.452
• USDCNY decreased 0.00175 or -0.02% to 7.29090
The above data was collected around 11:54 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold decreased 12.17 USD/t oz. or -0.46% to 2,639.45
•  Silver decreased 0.053 USD/t. oz. or -0.17% to 30.457
The above data was collected around 11:57 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 8.62 points or 0.12% to 7,365.70
•  FTSE 100 decreased 66.85 points or -0.81% to 8,195.20
•  DAX 30 decreased 67.44 points or -0.33% to 20,246.37
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.00041 or -0.04% to 1.05069
• GBPUSD increased 0.00356 or 0.28% to 1.27176
• USDCHF decreased 0.00186 or -0.21% to 0.89274
The above data was collected around 12:01 EST.

US/AMERICAS:

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 267.58 points or -0.61% to 43,449.9
  • S&P 500 declined 23.47 points or -0.39% to 6,050.61
  • Nasdaq declined 64.83 points or -0.32% to 20,109.06
  • Russell 2000 declined 27.91 points or -1.18% to 2,334.08

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 27.5 points or -0.11% to 25,119.71
  • TSX 60 declined 0.44 of a point or -0.03% to 1,508.59

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 1,336.32 points or 1.08% to 124,896.38
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a negative day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 1.12 USD/BBL or -1.58% to 69.590
•  Brent decreased 1.071 USD/BBL or -1.45% to 72.839
•  Natural gas decreased 0.0781 USD/MMBtu or -2.43% to 3.1359
•  Gasoline decreased 0.0334 USD/GAL or -1.69% to 1.9395
•  Heating oil decreased 0.0405 USD/GAL or -1.79% to 2.2193
The above data was collected around 12:13 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Bitumen (1.00%), Cocoa (0.47%), Feeder Cattle (0.56%) and Lumber (0.65%)
•  Top commodity losers: Sugar (-4.22%), Cheese (-6.75%), Heating Oil (-1.79%) and Natural Gas (-2.43%)
The above data was collected around 12:22 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 1.0770% (+0.51bp), US 2’s 4.25% (-0.017%), US 10’s 4.3830% (-2.2bps); US 30’s 4.58% (-0.024%), Bunds 2.2285% (-1.45bp), France 3.035% (-0.8bp), Italy 3.3860% (-1.05bp), Turkey 28.11% (-34bp), Greece 3.061% (0.1bp), Portugal 2.730% (+0.4bp); Spain 2.923% (-0.2bp) and UK Gilts 4.5260% (+8.08bp)
The above data was collected around 12:26 EST.

Food Inflation on the Rise

December 17, 2024

20220104_150713 scaled

Our models do not indicate that food inflation will ease in 2025. In fact, I have repeatedly warned that people may want to stockpile food for the next two years as there will be weather events and supply chain shortages. Our model warns that we may see another severe drought, probably between 2025 to 2027, in both the US and Canada. The drought conditions are already beginning, and this is in line with our model, which warns it will expand into the 2025-2027 period.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon announced last week that he expects persistent high prices at the grocery store. “I don’t know what the whole year is going to look like. I hope and I think it could be better as these commodities adjust — some of them,” he said per GroceryDrive. According to McMillon, he was “disappointed” at where food inflation was currently and cited that eggs and dairy were the main problems.

Food prices shot up during the pandemic and never fully recovered. Then the was in Ukraine hurt Europe’s food supply in a major way. In America, the Food Industry Association conducted a study that revealed food inflation in America rose 25% since the pandemic, and recently rose 1.1% on a monthly basis in November.

We then have those adhering to the climate change agenda reducing farmland and available cattle. They have repeatedly stated that humans simply consume too much meat, and our diets must change to reduce our carbon footprint.

Tariffs are inflationary and always hurt the consumer and have not helped in recent years. Additional tariffs will disrupt the supply chain and cause prices to rise. Obviously this is not limited to Walmart, the grocer who perhaps sells the cheapest goods in mass. Central banks are cheering that inflation has tamed but utterly ignore the persistently high cost of basic necessities like food.

Pardon for J6 Committee?

December 17, 2024

Thompson Bennie

Jan. 6 Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) recently stated that he would accept a preemptive pardon from Joe Biden if it were offered to him. Thompson has not been accused of a crime – yet. So, what is he hiding?

Thompson believes his committee did a “wonderful job” investigation January 6. Innocent people do not need pardons. Clearly, Thompson knows something that the public does not. “The president…….it’s his prerogative,” Thompson said, according to The Hill. “If he offers it, to me or other members of the committee, I think it, I would accept it, but it’s his choice.”

Burdick v. United States, 236 U.S. 79 (1915) declared that accepting a pardon is an admission of guilt. “There are substantial differences between legislative immunity and a pardon; the latter carries an imputation of guilt and acceptance of a confession of it, while the former is noncommittal, and tantamount to silence of the witness,” legislation declares. “There is a distinction between amnesty and pardon; the former overlooks the offense, and is usually addressed to crimes against the sovereignty of the state and political offenses, the latter remits punishment and condones infractions of the peace of the state.”

 

The deep state will say that the committee should be preemptively pardoned in case Donald Trump prosecutes his political enemies as the left has done relentlessly over the past four years. Pardoning Bennie Thompson would also likely result in a pardon for Liz Cheney as both have allegedly destroyed evidence surrounding the J6 case.

LizCheney

“Cheney did something that’s inexcusable, along with Thompson and the people on the un-select committee of political thugs and, you know, creeps,” Trump said in an interview. “They deleted and destroyed all evidence. And Cheney was behind it. And so was Bennie Thompson and everybody on that committee. For what they did, honestly, they should go to jail.”

Cheney and Thompson refused to hand over witness interviews and depositions regarding the care. She would not allow the video recordings of witness interviews see the light of day. “The Subcommittee recovered over one hundred deleted or password-protected files, including some files that were deleted days before Republicans took the majority. They also hid multiple transcribed interviews of witnesses who had firsthand knowledge of Trump‘s actions on January 6,” a report into the botched investigation revealed.

Cheney and Thompson maintain their innocence. Cheney also maintains that Trump attempted to overthrow the 2020 US Presidential Election to seize power like a crazed dictator. “He mobilized an angry mob and sent them to the United States Capitol, where they attacked police officers, invaded the building and halted the official counting of electoral votes. Trump watched on television as police officers were brutally beaten and the Capitol was assaulted, refusing for hours to tell the mob to leave,” Cheney maintains.

Deleting and destroying evidence is a crime. If Joe Biden pardons these individuals, then he is merely covering up a deeper injustice and perversion of the justice system under his watch. Biden has nothing to lose at this point as he is absolutely detested by everyone, including his own party. The two-tiered justice system in America screws over everyone who is not at the top.

Kids for Cash – Biden Awards Corrupt Judge Clemency

December 17, 2024

Corruption Law

Former Luzerne County, Pennsylvania judge Michael Conahan made his fortune by accepting bribes to imprison America’s youth. Conahan and fellow judge Mark Ciavarella Jr. ruined families to help fill the cells of for-profit juvenile detention facilities. Over 2,500 juveniles were sold off by these judges for $2.8 million. Conahan was sentenced to 17.5 years, a mere slap on the wrist compared to his offense. But Joe Biden believes this man should be free and granted him clemency.

These corrupt PA judges sent children to prison for minor, non-violent offenses. For many of these juveniles, they had never seen a courtroom before the day they were unlucky enough to appear before Conahan of Ciavarella. Now, Conahan had already been released on home confinement after citing he was in “grave danger” of catching COVID. “These commutation recipients, who were placed on home confinement during the COVID pandemic, have successfully reintegrated into their families and communities and have shown that they deserve a second chance,” Joe Biden stated.

@trendy_viewz

#Mother who lost her son in the “Kids-for-Cash” scheme speaks out after President #Biden pardoned one of the men she accuses of k*lling her child. Fonzo is famous for berating a judge for accepting kickbacks to send children to for-profit detention facilities. Biden pardoned Judge #MichaelConahan this week who accepted $2.1 million in kickbacks from detention facilities

♬ original sound – Trendy_viewz Nuke

Why should this dishonorable judge receive clemency when he deliberately gave children the longest sentences possible in exchange for cash? Some of his victims were under 13. Those who were released are suffering permanent psychological damage, and many were unable to finish high school.

One young man committed suicide while behind bars while serving a sentence for a minor drug charge, a charge that someone like Hunter Biden would never face. His mother, Sandy Fonzo, told reporters she was “shocked” and “hurt” by the president’s disgusting actions. “Conahan‘s actions destroyed families, including mine, and my son‘s death is a tragic reminder of the consequences of his abuse of power,” Fonzo told the Citizens’ Voice, a local outlet. “This pardon feels like an injustice for all of us who still suffer. Right now I am processing and doing the best I can to cope with the pain that this has brought back.”

There are clearly two tiers of justice in this country. Biden’s actions are sparking bipartisan outrage as NO ONE believes this judge should receive a “second chance” when he denied THOUSANDS of kids the opportunity to have one. Joe Biden may very well leave office as one of the LEAST popular presidents in modern history.

The Majority Must Always Be Wrong

December 17, 2024

You are all Wrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your blog. My friends here have been on my case to listen to you. Our government has fallen, and I have observed one thing. Your forecasts are correct because nobody here will ever make a bold forecast, and they all seem to preach the same scenario. You have been accurate on Germany against the herd of analysts here. One by one, European nations are falling, and I can now see your 2032 and the collapse of governments unfolding before our eyes. What do you see in 2025 for Germany? You have a solution for the United States. Could you save Europe from itself?

Thank you

DT

Armstrong Majority must be Wrong

ANSWER: Because I am not an academic, what I speak comes from experience and direct observation. The only economic theories that have survived are exclusively from those who have been traders – not academics. John Law traded on the Amsterdam exchange and gave birth to Supply and Demand. He articulated his famous water vs diamond analogy, which stated that water was vital to society. Still, water had little value compared to a diamond that had no true utility value yet was worth more than water. Even David Ricardo was involved in trading and saw the implications of international capital flows. He expressed that a nation should focus on its comparative advantage – something Trump must understand.

Greek Hoard

Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the same Amsterdam exchange and saw that debasement drove out the older coinage from the money supply. Gresham’s Law became that bad money drove good out of circulation. We saw this even during the 3rd century AD when people hoarded the old silver coins and spent the debased. Even Albert Einstein, I was told, got his idea of general relativity from moving up and down in an elevator. Albert’s special theory of relativity appeared to be incompatible with the gravitational force as described by Newton’s law of gravity.

May 1928 Fed Raises Rates R

Most analysts espouse the same old nonsense and project the future based on what the central bank will or will not do. These analysts are not real, for all they purport is the same Keynesian theories they were taught in school. Sorry – that was an academic theory inspired by Marx and no longer works. Even Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, delivered his speech – the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle, in which he stated that the “new economics” ultimately failed. Any analyst who points to the Fed has never read the memos. Here, we have the thinking process before Keynes. The Fed raised rates in May 1928 and continued into the 1929 high with no effect.

CALLMONY MA

Here is a chart of call money rates from the NYSE. Just look closely. We see that 1929 was the biggest stock market rally but the lowest level of interest rates, all because of the capital inflows. The Panic of 1899 saw rates rise to virtually 200% because of the capital outflows. There is no such theory of stock market up interest rates down that can be verified whatsoever.

Bulls Bears

The market functions like a pendulum. It is its own weight that pulls it back in the opposite direction, and so forth. When everyone is bullish, and you scare the herd, they all try to sell, and then what you get is panic and NO BID. ONLY a trader understands this – never an academic with no experience. It’s like a guy trying to write a book on how it feels to give birth – IMPOSSIBLE! This is why the MAJORITY must always be wrong. A good trader looks at the bullish, bearish consensus.

2024_12_16_19_13_02_Scholz_branded_a_failure_as_Germany_s_government_collapses_and_33_more_pages_

IBEUUS M Tech 12 16 24

You are correct. Europe is imploding one nation at a time. As I have said many times, the creation of the euro was a compromise, and it could never rival the dollar, forcing institutional investors to still pick and choose between member states lacking a national debt market. Mr Scholz is a disaster. He lost a vote of confidence by 394 to 207, with 116 members of the Bundestag abstaining. Scholz’s last-ditch attempt to retain power with promises of massive spending fell flat on its face. This will send Germany to an election in February, precisely when our computer has been projecting a Panic Cycle in advance. Leaders from several major parties have since agreed to move up the parliamentary election to February 23, seven months ahead of schedule.

EU Parliament

Europe can it be saved

 

I would gladly fly to Brussels to address all members at once. But you must understand the computer forecasts that my best efforts will not succeed. Each member retained its debt. If Germany listened, it would pressure others to follow or be left behind. But politicians have been brainwashed by the NEOCONs and NATO and are preparing for a third World War, which the computer forecasts that they will lose. This will be the demise of the West. I suppose historically, we all have our minutes of fame.

Charlemagne 3

In 800AD, Pope Leo III crowned Charlemagne (768-814AD) Holy Roman Emperor. Today, Charlemagne is referred to by some as the father of Europe. From that date, the EU is not likely to exist after 2029. Europe is heading in the wrong direction, and NATO is pushing for World War III, and there is not a single government even willing to negotiate. That makes it very hard. In all reality, I suspect they would only listen to me in 2029 and beyond.

 

 

Market Talk – December 16, 2024

December 16, 2024

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 12.95 points or -0.03% to 39,457.49
• Shanghai decreased 5.55 points or -0.16% to 3,386.33
• Hang Seng decreased 175.75 points or -0.88% to 19,795.49
• ASX 200 decreased 46.50 points or -0.56% to 8,249.50
• SENSEX decreased 433.70 points or -0.53% to 81,699.42
• Nifty50 decreased 100.05 points or -0.40% to 24,668.25
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD increased 0.00137 or 0.22% to 0.63727
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00005 or -0.01% to 0.57800
• USDJPY increased 0.302 or 0.20% to 154.052
• USDCNY increased 0.00786 or 0.11% to 7.28896
The above data was collected around 14:03 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold increased 7.31 USD/t oz. or 0.28% to 2,654.61
•  Silver increased 0.135 USD/t. oz. or 0.44% to 30.600
The above data was collected around 14:07 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:
•  CAC 40 decreased 52.49 points or -0.71% to 7,357.08
•  FTSE 100 decreased 38.28 points or -0.46% to 8,262.05
•  DAX 30 decreased 92.11 points or -0.45% to 20,313.81
The major Europe currency markets had a green day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00154 or 0.15% to 1.05164
• GBPUSD increased 0.00741 or 0.59% to 1.26926
• USDCHF increased 0.0009 or 0.10% to 0.89410
The above data was collected around 14:12 EST.

US/AMERICAS:

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 110.58 points or -0.25% to 43,717.48
  • S&P 500 advanced 22.99 points or 0.38% to 6,074.08
  • Nasdaq advanced 247.17 points or 1.24% to 20,173.89
  • Russell 2000 advanced 15.1 points or 0.64% to 2,361.99

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 127.09 points or -0.5% to 25,147.21
  • TSX 60 declined 7.94 points or -0.52% to 1,509.03

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 1,052.85 points or -0.84% to 123,559.37
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a negative day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 0.661 USD/BBL or -0.93% to 70.629
•  Brent decreased 0.561 USD/BBL or -0.75% to 73.929
•  Natural gas decreased 0.0666 USD/MMBtu or -2.03% to 3.2134
•  Gasoline decreased 0.0254 USD/GAL or -1.27% to 1.9748
•  Heating oil decreased 0.0005 USD/GAL or -0.02% to 2.2655
The above data was collected around 14:15 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Platinum (1.45%), Cocoa (3.80%), Orange Juice (3.95%) and Coffee (2.24%)
•  Top commodity losers: Lean Hogs (-2.47%), Cheese (-4.75%), Aluminum (-1.99%) and Natural Gas (-2.03%)
The above data was collected around 14:19 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 1.0720% (+3.15bp), US 2’s 4.25% (+0.006%), US 10’s 4.4040% (+0.8bps); US 30’s 4.62% (+0.016%), Bunds 2.2375% (-0.95bp), France 3.044% (+1.15bp), Italy 3.3930% (+0.75bp), Turkey 28.45% (+11bp), Greece 3.060% (+4bp), Portugal 2.731% (+3bp); Spain 2.928% (+1.05bp) and UK Gilts 4.4450% (+2.65bp)
The above data was collected around 14:22 EST.

Americans Earning Under $50K Regularly Skipping Meals to Afford Shelter

December 16, 2024

House US Real Estate

Inflation data is skewed and does not factor in the reality that the costs of basic necessities like food and housing have not waned significantly since COVID began. Shelter costs, in particular, have become unaffordable for the majority. Redfin recently reported that 74% of Americans earning under $50,000 are seriously struggling to maintain consistent payments on their rent or mortgage.

Nealy, a quarter of Americans earning under $50,000 annually regularly skip meals and delay healthcare to cover the rent or mortgage. Nearly a quarter have admitted that they can no longer afford to eat three standard meals per day because the money must go toward shelter. Around the same percentage said they have been forced to sell off their belonging to make ends meet. Around 25% said they have asked family or friends for a loan, while 19% received a monetary gift to cover housing costs. Eight percent moved in with their parents, 10% moved in with other family members, and 3% moved in with their adult children. Six percent were sadly forced to abandon their pets, and 4% stated they delayed having children because the costs were simply too high. Eating out at restaurants (-43%) and vacations (-36%) are no longer in the budget.

Around 21% of this demographic have delayed or chose to forego medical care due to financial reasons. This could expand to Americans in many income brackets as healthcare is a luxury service. Countless people who can afford it simply travel to other countries to receive healthcare. I hear this frequently with dental procedures that are not as time sensistive in particular.

Shelter costs spiked 7.9% from January 2022 to January 2023, marking the largest annual increase since 1982. Shelters across America have reported a 23% rise in people seeking emergency assistance from 2019 to 2023. The median home in the US now costs $420,400, but it is hard to gauge an average cost when home prices vary significantly by state and city. People living in New York, California, and Hawaii are more likely to spend 50% or more on household income on shelter costs. Rental costs remain 20% higher than they were before COVID, while the cost to buy remains up by 40%.

This is precisely why they fail to include shelter costs in the inflation data. We hear the central banks tout how inflation is at or near their target but they omit key data. The talking heads in government like Yellen who claim people are better off than then before the pandemic are completely out of touch with reality.

Biden Commutes Sentence of Former Comptroller who Embezzled $53M

December 16, 2024

Biden confused

President Biden has commuted sentences for 1,499 people and issued 39 pardons. The majority of these commuted sentences were on behalf of people who were placed on home confinement rather than prison during the pandemic years. The people he has chosen to give a second chance seem suspicious.

Dixon, Illinois comptroller Rita Crundwell was found guilty and ADMITTED to funneling $53 million from her city since the 1990s. A career criminal politician, Crundwell opened a bank account in 1990 on behalf of the city of Dixon, but only she had access to the account. Over the decades, Crundwell admitted to transferring money out of that account to her personal accounts. She has admitted to using taxpayer funds to pay her personal credit cards, numerous houses, and personal business expenses included a horse breeding business.

The public servant admitted to created fraudulent invoices to trick Illinois state auditors. Budget deficits were blamed on a shortfall of tax revenues. Her 19-year sentence had already been reduced by eight years and she has been serving the remainder of her sentence on house arrest sine COVID.

“Now, today I anticipate she’s dancing in the streets of Dixon with her commutation, because she just also conned the President of the United States,” said former U.S. Marshal Jason Wojdylo. “This official act undid decades of work.” Wojdylo spent four years on this case and stated the overwhelming nature of her crime made it almost impossible to determine the true amount of stolen funds.

Dixon has delayed infrastructure projects and city officials say it will take decades for the city to recover. Why did Joe Biden pardon this woman who stole from the American public without shame? Considering the 10% for the Big Guy ways of Biden’s own criminal career in politics, he likely sees the $53 million as mere chump change.

US Intelligence Agencies Clear Themselves of Jan 6 Wrongdoing

December 16, 2024

january_6th_capital_riot

January 6 was a staged and orchestrated event intended to criminalize Donald Trump and his supporters. There is a slew of evidence pointing to US intelligence interference, with more emerging by the week. US intelligence agencies wasted additional resources to investigate their own bureaus, “FBI’s Handling of its Confidential Human Sources and Intelligence Collection Efforts in the Lead Up to the Jan. 6, 2021 Electoral Certification.” Naturally, US intelligence found no wrongdoing on their end.

Department of Justice (DOJ) Inspector General Michael E. Horowitz announced that over two dozen confidential human sources (CHS) were present at the Capitol on January 6. He admits that three FBI agents were among the crowd but insists there were no undercover officers. Twenty-six CHS agents were also among the crowd, but the report insists only three were authorized to be there. One actually entered the Capitol building while the other two made their way into restricted areas. None of those four agents were charged with committing a crime.

“Our review determined that none of these FBI CHSs was authorized by the FBI to enter the Capitol or a restricted area or to otherwise break the law on January 6, nor was any CHS directed by the FBI to encourage others to commit illegal acts on January 6,” he stated.

Horowitz believes that they have simply “found no evidence in the materials we reviewed or the testimony we received showing or suggesting that the FBI had undercover employees in the various protest crowds, or at the Capitol, on January 6.” The FBI applauded the investigation, which was clearly skewed in its favor, and said they would take additional precautions in January 2025.

FBI Director Christopher Wray announced that he is fleeing his post before Trump takes office. “When Chris Wray first got there back in 2017, the FBI was spying on congressional hill staffers, including the guy who is slated to replace him, and then the day after he announces he’s leaving, this report comes out and confirms what so many of us suspected, that there were these confidential human sources present on Jan. 6,” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, told Fox News.

Those who read between the lines can see that the DOJ and FBI have been weaponized political tools of the deep state under the Biden-Harris regime. Over 1,265 Americans were charged in connection to the January 6 events. The government used J6 as a premise to weaponize financial institutions to spy on Americans and usurp more power. These agencies are working against the American people for the private interests of the deep state and will never admit to any wrongdoing. It is laughable to think that any agency will deter civil unrest next month at Trump’s inauguration.

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