The Republican Convention in Review

July 22, 2016

Trump Convention

Those in the establishment are truly beside themselves. People like Jon Stewart are bashing Trump supporters saying, “You Don’t Own America,” which means only one thing — shut up and let the rest of us control government as we always have. The Trump supporters are the main backbone of America who have been ignored, lied to, and abused in every possible way.

Taxation is rising, real wages are down, and the people have been stripped of their liberty in education as well as healthcare. Student loans were deemed non-dischargeable in bankruptcy, and banks want parents to co-sign, meaning they now have their homes. Yes, they do not own America, Jon, because the bankers do. The bankers keep the media in place and the politicians in office with their bribes. They are “too big to jail” so they get to do whatever they want — and these are the people who “own America” right now.

Other Republicans held their “other” convention after refusing to support the party. People like Mitt Romney are doing their most to keep things as they are and would prefer Hillary to ensure nothing changes. Reuters reported how the big donors, banks mainly, labelled as “corporate” would not donate even $15,000 for food. So indeed, the Trump supporters do not own America.

Nevertheless, as things progress and the bankers pour money into Hillary, this could have an interesting outcome. Nigel Farage thanked Obama for going to London to tell them to get to the back or the que, which really pissed off the Brits. This pouring of money from the worst of the worst to Hillary just may backfire at the end of the day.

Peter Tiel ConventionCruz-1

The campaign is very interesting. You have Trump pitched as the “non-politician” against the establishment of crooked politicians led by Hillary. It is amazing to watch, especially since our computer projected a rise in independence for 2016. This is really over the top. Trump has remade the Republican Party like nobody would have ever thought possible. To see Ted Cruz get booed from the stage was spectacular.

It was amazing for someone like Peter Thiel to even address the Republican Convention and get a standing ovation after saying, “I am proud to be gay, I am proud to be a Republican, I am proud to be an American.”  There is absolutely no way such a person would have addressed the convention under John McCain or Mitt Romney. Trump’s daughter was his greatest asset. She runs the company alongside him, and plainly addressed Hillary’s feminist rhetoric stating that they employed more women executives at equal pay. She did more to take the wind out of Hillary’s argument but the media will never report that one for it goes against their agenda.

It does indeed appear that Trump has remade the party, which is something even I would not have thought possible just yet. However, it does show that the silent majority is starting to rise up and throw the bums like McCain and Romney out on their butts. The fact that they were not even there demonstrated their own arrogance. Cruz was delusional to think he could pitch to their people to be the president some day while wanting to rain on their parade by refusing to endorse Trump. I have said when I would go down to Capitol Hill and we would go out to lunch, Cruz would be there eating alone. Nobody ever liked the guy. Well, his wife can now go back to Goldman Sachs and he can repay their loan he forgot they gave him.

Police State

Trump said he would be the “law and order” guy. His emphasis on that so much was rather disturbing. Considering we already have 65 million people who have been charged with something in this this country, which is more than 25% of the 18+ population. The USA has 5% of the world’s population and 25% of the entire world’s prison population. Sorry, but something is seriously wrong. And Trump wants to increase this? Sorry, it is already insane.

China Currency Manipulor

On trade, Trump is out of touch with reality. China is not manipulating its currency. It has been wrongfully trying to support it, and they should let it float freely and that will end this rhetoric. What Trump does not get is that unions destroyed the vast majority of American manufacturing jobs and taxes did the rest. Just look at NYC. It was once the port of choice for shipping. The unions became insane and they drove the business to other US cities. Nothing takes place on the docks in NYC any more. Companies moving offshore did not cause that as it was just between cities.

To bring home manufacturing that restores high wages also means the price of what they manufacture will rise in proportion. To benefit the few, the majority will pay more. That is what socialism is all about. David Riccardo’s Comparative Advantage works. Sorry, but if people in China will work for less to produce the same quality, we should import that product and the displaced workers should get off their asses and improve their skills to stay with the evolution process in the economy.

The two fields that are now overcrowded are lawyers and doctors. So many people went into those fields to get rich and now the competition is insane. The space we are taking over in Florida is from a law firm that is sharply downsizing. Sorry, the economy is like a child and it is always evolving. To change laws so that manufacturing jobs return at an unsupportable high level is the same as creating more laws to criminally charge more people to keep lawyers in business.

TAXES-TEXT

A number of people have asked if I have been advising Trump because he was using the numbers I testified before Congress on with respect to corporate taxes. The answer is NO! Reducing corporate taxes to 15% will create a massive economic boom. There is about $2 trillion in corporate cash offshore. That would come home. Reducing the tax rate — AND ELIMINATING DIVIDEND TAXES — will create the biggest economic boom in history. It is insane that corporations pay income tax, and then pay a tax to payout a dividend, and then the shareholder pays income tax on the dividend. The Democrats w3ant to force the minimum wage to $15 by decree but that will only result in replacing workers with robots even faster. How about we eliminate personal income tax and return the nation to the way it was before we adopted Marxism in 1913. The nation did fine with indirect taxation.

We the People

So at the end of the day, Trump would be better than Hillary. However, there are still a lot of concerns. You can bet that now the bankers will be lining up to donate to Congressional members in the Republican Party as a hedge against Trump just in case they lose with Hillary. The bankers always win both sides of the isle.

So Jon Stewart is right, the Trump supporters do not own America — the bankers, politicians, and media do. That special elitist group have redefined “We the People” to include only them. That’s why Mitt Romey, McCain, and virtually every TV station except Fox (despite taking down their head on the very day of Trump’s acceptance speech) has been alongside Hillary and Obama to keep everything in its place. It has become them against the people.

2016-PresElection

Pres-Turnout

So the computer shows that Trump should win. He already brought more voters to the primary than anyone has at any point in history. Then again, BREXIT was a huge turnout and we are projecting the same in the USA for this election.

Nevertheless, while we could see Trump reach the highest proportion of popular votes in history above the 60% level, we have to keep in mind that with the bankers, TV media moguls, and career politicians, the odds are stacked against a fair election. As Stalin said, “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.”2000PRES

During the 2000 election, our computer showed that Gore should have won. Of course, the Supreme Court intervened and gave it to Bush. Nevertheless, our computer was extremely close and pushed a trifle over for Gore.

stalincountthevoteFat Lady Sings

So at the end of the day, the people will decide the 2016 election if the voter turnout is overwhelming. If there is a close election, then he who counts the votes elects the president. There has to be a major turnout for Trump to win. If he does, then we have the chaos of “law and order” intermixed with a trade war.
So, as they say, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings.

 

French Parliament – Nullified – Get Ready for More Civil Unrest

July 22, 2016

Valls_Toulouse PM

After months of controversy over the labor market reform that was designed to end excessive socialism in France, the French Government has bypassed the final vote in Parliament altogether. Given the resistance in his own camp, Hollande and the Prime Minister Manuel Valls in the National Assembly are using a special rule that allows them to effectively circumvent the democratic process. This trick is to simply assume that the law is considered adopted unless a motion of censure against the government is provided and successful. That is considered extremely unlikely. Therefore, this is providing cover for the politicians who can say they never voted for such a reform of labor laws.

This labor reform should loosen labor laws and give companies more flexibility, and in this manner, they are hoping companies can easily create new jobs. The classic opponents fear for workers’ rights will vanish and several unions have repeatedly protested. They cannot see that their one-sided labor monopoly is destroying jobs and economic growth. This is part of the crash and burn. Still, the labor unions will fight for themselves and refuse to see that they themselves are causing the economic decline.

The French unions are notorious for their communistic ways. They themselves chase companies out of France. For decades, when we advised clients looking to establish plants inside the Eurozone prior to 1998, we always warned them against France. After being threatened with closure back in 2014, workers at a French Goodyear Tire factory outright kidnapped two company executives and held them hostage; promising to hold them until “enormous amounts of money” were paid to them. You cannot imagine why anyone would even want to be assigned to run a foreign company in France these days.

Labor reform is desperately needed in France, but the unions are effectively communistic organizations who will generally act only in their self-interest, even if it is against the interests of the people. So, this will only fuel our models for civil unrest moving forward.

Losing Sleep Over Banks

July 22, 2016

Looking futures

QUESTION:

Hello Martin,

If i have exposure to various banking counterparties in europe – what do i do from running a fund mgmt business as i m a bearish on banks….but i cant shut my business as i m fearful of banks…..what do you advise….how can one hedge or think about getting away from this risk?

This is really keeping me up at night.

tks again

ANSWER: Yes, you could also use Bank of New York, which is just a custodian; National Australia Bank or Macquarie are secondary choices. Alternatively, you could use the REPO market directly or use one of the clearers via the Tri-Party agreements! He could use a GMRA (Global Master Repo Agreement) and decide who his counterparties can be (i.e. Pimco, Easyjet etc.), but use the exchange as the mediator.

There is a company (Alixium – part of the Tradition Brokerage Co) that has a web-based cash exchange, which I believe works on similar principals but it is also possible to deposit GBP then change the criteria of capital and accept X-Currency assets (USD, A$ etc).

There are lots of ways around… No need to lose sleep over this. I do like Bank of New York because it is a custodian and very conservative.

Market Talk — July 21, 2016

July 21, 2016

Market-Talk

Talk that the BOJ was preparing even more stimulus to be announced at next weeks central bank meeting certainly helped the Nikkei and also sentiment for most core Asian exchanges. After yesterdays 13% fall in Nintendo shares today was reasonably quiet closing just 0.8% higher on the day. The Shanghai and Hang Seng indices were both aided by the confidence and closed around 0.4% each. In late US session both China300 and the Nikkei are down around 1% with HSI off just 0.5%.

Everyone was waiting for Mario Draghi and the ECB announcement which resulted in a reasonably dull morning session. Upon the prepared remarks the market were well behaved until the Q+A session began. Bunds started to sell-off during the comments together with the DAX but questions around “possible rule changes” circulated and Bunds became flavour of the month again. All core equity markets liked what they heard and so markets began to recover from their lows. Europe closed off their lows with confidence for the end of the weeks session tomorrow. BREXIT has been involved in almost every market conversation for the past five months but so todays meeting between the UK and France did not achieve much other than the “Get on with it” statement from Mr. Hollande.

US markets have finally seen a bit of a retracement from recent gains. It is not really a surprise we are seeing this move after seeing contract highs for over a week. Thursdays Initial Claims were marginally better than forecast and Home Sales printing 5.57M against an expected 5.48M. With all core US indices closing around 0.4% lower tomorrow close for the week could set the trend for the FED meeting next week.

US bond did attempt a sell-off early morning but had recovered all and gained by the close of US trading. 2/10 closed 1bp steeper at 88bp, with 10’s at 1.56%. After the mornings weakness Germany also reversed its course to close almost unchanged at -0.02%. This puts US/Germany 10yr spread at +158bp. Italy closed 1.24% (u/c), Greece 7.81% (+5bp), Turkey 10% (+18bp), Portugal 3.02% (-2bp) and Gilt 10’s closed 0.83%.

Draghi Has Lost It Completely

July 21, 2016

Draghai Euro Crisis

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced it will decide in the coming months whether monetary policy should be eased any further. Clearly, Draghi is completely losing control for he cannot entertain the remote possibility that negative interest rates will only cause hoarding and capital flight, and not stimulation. People only borrow when they see an opportunity. They do not borrow like governments with no rational thought whatsoever.

In the coming months, Draghi said a better assessment of the situation would become possible. However, Draghi also said at the press conference for the Governing Council meeting that there is a change in policy because the ECB rule prevents them from buying negative yielding bonds. With German 10-year moving negative, that means Draghi cannot buy anything from Germany. Draghi came out and said that if necessary he will use all “available instruments” meaning the rule to prevent the ECB from buying negative bonds will be abandoned.

The key rate was left as expected at a record low of zero percent. Draghi reiterated that interest rates will remain low, far beyond the end of the bond purchase program. The bond purchases in the amount of EUR 80 billion per month until at least March 2017 will continue until the inflation once again reappears. He has demonstrated that Europe is really screwed. He will not even consider that he is bankrupting pension funds while creating the next crisis and the elderly can no longer live off of interest. He has totally disrupted the world economy and has completely lost all sense of how to manage the economy.

Party Politics – Insanity

July 21, 2016

Party Politics

QUESTION: Marty; I see these people ranting about Trump and how outraged they are. They seem to have no problem with the outrageous amount of lies Hillary has carried out or the fact that the bankers only donated to Hillary. They seem to be mindless and beyond rational claiming he is proposing that we build a wall along the “Mexican border and then has the audacity to suggest that Mexico will pay for it.” Then they claim he advocates targeting family members of terrorists to combat ISIS, denigrates women, and is a “threat to American values” dismantling our social contract. They will never address Hillary’s lies or the fact the bankers donate to her not Trump. I am 35 and you are right. Those of us under 45 do not seem to be brainwashed as the older crowd. Is this what you mean by saying we are at a generational shift?

Thank you so much for your rational explanations.

Bob

ANSWER: Yes. There is a stark different in the thinking process where that line appears to be drawn at about 45. Of course, there are those of us over 45 (like myself) who have always been independent thinkers and reject the brainwashing that comes from party politics be it Republican or Democrat, Conservative or Labour.

People who espouse such one-sided nonsense are why we are in this state of crisis. Hillary is the poster-child for corrupt politicians. Even as First Lady, she was always lying and under some rock. The list of her lies is abundant. While Trump is infinitely the better choice on that score, the real question will be can Trump remain independent enough to make a difference? I seriously doubt that he can actually reverse the damage that has been inflicted upon the American society for so many decades. The risk will be great that he will be assassinated for he stands against career politicians and the New York bankers. So with that many enemies, it may be hard to survive.

Will Trump stay the course and hold Congress’ feet to the fire? Or will Trump just agree and sign whatever is put in front of him? We will be headed into a great monetary crisis as early as 2018. I do think it would be better to have someone with some private sector understanding at the negotiation table on that one.

The only hope Trump offers is someone to stand up against politics as usual. Under Hillary, everything will be sold to the highest bidder and you can bet the New York bankers will rule the day. So I suppose it may end up as a choice between a softer landing with Trump and a very hard landing with Hillary.

Keep in mind that it will be the 2018 election where we may see more of a clean sweep of Congress. That is really what is necessary to turn things around. I would not expect that electing Trump will right all wrongs and it is impossible to prevent the crash and burn. If Hillary were to win, 2018 would be a major political revolution. If Trump were to win, perhaps his clash with the establishment inspires people to clean out Congress.

More than Just Buy or Sell – The World Beyond

July 21, 2016

MA-Socrates Prison

Visiting the Jail Cell Where Socrates Died

COMMENT:

Mr. Armstrong, Just spent the night in the ER with one of my kids. Waited hours for the results of the CT head scan. Thankfully, my daughter is fine. Had lots of time to think though. I have been following your blog for years, although I am not an investor. Your perspective is what interests me. I know your computer, Socrates, generates the data…but you bring it to life. Amazing. I know most of your readers are interested in how the information helps them to make financial profits. But Socrates is monitoring so much more about the human existence.

You trust the data in a way that few people do, because you understand it the way no one else can. That is what interests me. What we see in charts is two dimensional, but is Socrates developing a sort of Kondratiev wave cycle in all aspects of life…not just financial? Seems like I read something from you about this. If those cycles could be charted in 3d, would the markers look more like a DNA molecule forming strands coiled around each other to form a double helix? Is there an axis or a core of balance? I wonder how far the data has been extrapolated and what Socrates’ predicts for the future of humanity…the universe… You have freely shared much of the info Socrates has developed.

I hope that some day in the near future, people will see more than the money making value of Socrates. Like a well informed doctor with the proper application of medicine, Socrates’ info can help cure the ills of humanity. Or it can be used like the profit driven medical system we have now… Or the profit driven judicial system you experienced… Watched The Forecaster a few days ago. Would never want to walk in your shoes, but what a life you have!

Maria

REPLY: I know what it is like sitting there, waiting in an ER concerned for your child. It does provide a moment for reflection. I lost my first son and had to fight to save another. So, I have been there as well. Strangely enough, you are not alone in your observation. The vast majority of people tuning in to what Socrates has been revealing are not traders. They are average people who are in search of answers. True, I even had to stand up to the dark forces in government who wanted to silence me and keep everything for themselves. There are always two sides to a coin.

I have often been asked why I named my computer Socrates. A friend of Socrates once asked the Oracle of Delphi who the smartest man was. The Oracle replied, “Socrates.” The friend informed Socrates of the reply and he was in disbelief. Socrates set out to prove the Oracle wrong and in the process discovered that perhaps it was correct. The essence of a genius is not someone who is all-knowing, which is a common misconception that even Socrates had before realizing he did not know everything and thus the Oracle had to be wrong.

What he discovered was that knowledge was not knowing everything; it was having the wisdom to reason and observe. In this respect, Socrates exposed that the pretend experts in each field were not wise and they hated Socrates for exposing their weakness. For this, he was put on trial and sentenced to death. Therefore, Socrates was the first martyr to the field of analyzing how the world functions to achieve wisdom as distinguished from knowledge. Socrates’ words from when he was sentenced to death always gave me my core inspiration.

Let us reflect in another way, and we shall see that there is great reason to hope that death is a good, for one of two things: – either death is a state of nothingness and utter unconsciousness, or, as men say, there is a change and migration of the soul from this world to another.

Now if you suppose that there is no consciousness, but a sleep like the sleep of him who is undisturbed even by the sight of dreams, death will be an unspeakable gain. For if a person were to select the night in which his sleep was undisturbed even by dreams, and were to compare with this the other days and nights of his life, and then were to tell us how many days and nights he had passed in the course of his life better and more pleasantly than this one, I think that any man, I will not say a private man, but even the great king, will not find many such days or nights, when compared with the others.

Now if death is like this, I say that to die is gain; for eternity is then only a single night. But if death is the journey to another place, and there, as men say, all the dead are, what good, O my friends and judges, can be greater than this? If indeed when the pilgrim arrives in the world below, he is delivered from the professors of justice in this world, and finds the true judges who are said to give judgment there, Minos and Rhadamanthus and Aeacus and Triptolemus, and other sons of God who were righteous in their own life, that pilgrimage will be worth making. What would not a man give if he might converse with Orpheus and Musaeus and Hesiod and Homer? Nay, if this be true, let me die again and again. I, too, shall have a wonderful interest in a place where I can converse with Palamedes, and Ajax the son of Telamon, and other heroes of old, who have suffered death through an unjust judgment; and there will be no small pleasure, as I think, in comparing my own sufferings with theirs.

Above all, I shall be able to continue my search into true and false knowledge; as in this world, so also in that; I shall find out who is wise, and who pretends to be wise, and is not. What would not a man give, O judges, to be able to examine the leader of the great Trojan expedition; or Odysseus or Sisyphus, or numberless others, men and women too! What infinite delight would there be in conversing with them and asking them questions! For in that world they do not put a man to death for this; certainly not. For besides being happier in that world than in this, they will be immortal, if what is said is true.

Wherefore, O judges, be of good cheer about death, and know this of a truth – that no evil can happen to a good man, either in life or after death. He and his are not neglected by the gods; nor has my own approaching end happened by mere chance. But I see clearly that to die and be released was better for me; and therefore the oracle gave no sign. For which reason also, I am not angry with my accusers, or my condemners; they have done me no harm, although neither of them meant to do me any good; and for this I may gently blame them.

Plato – “The Apology”

A Buddhist monk once told me I was a very old soul with many lifetimes of experience. Perhaps, but I have no recollection of such experiences.

Nevertheless, it was Milton Friedman who came to listen to me speak at a trader’s convention in Chicago. Afterward, he walked up, stuck out his hand, and said, “Hello, I’m Milton Friedman.” That was the best speech I have ever heard. He then told me I was doing what he had only dreamed about. I was shocked. From my perspective, I was just a trader, although one who roamed the world. With time, politicians, economists, heads of state, and central bankers all came to meet me. John Exter came to my office to show me his life’s work. When the Asian Currency Crisis hit China, they asked me to come to Beijing. When they were creating the euro, the Commission attended our World Economic Conference in London and took the whole back row.

Money drives the world. The flow of capital dictates the trend and within that trend lies the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. Yes, there are those who are only interested in how much they can make from trading, but over the years, I have come to realize this is a very small minority. The number of subscribers you might get from that crowd is limited to less than 10,000. I was shocked to discover, back just two years ago, that we had more than 600,000 unique viewers to our site. Today, we are in the millions. There is more to all of this than just buying and selling. You can run any program to develop buy or sell signals on 10,000 markets and stocks. That is no big deal. But to create something that expands our understanding of how the world functions, that is a different animal altogether.

It has been an interesting life. They say God gives us only what we can endure. Perhaps that is true. What does not kill you definitely makes you stronger. Life is but a novel. You have to get to the end to understand the whole. If what I have discovered can endure and help to change the way we manage society for the better, then I can rest in peace with a smile.

COMEY – HSBC – HILLARY

July 21, 2016

Comey-James FBI-Portrait

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Comey kept you in prison without any charges under the pretense of contempt. Then he supported a lifetime gag order on you to prevent you from ever helping the Japanese against HSBC, which is notorious for laundering money. Well Comey was also a board member of HSBC whose clients also contributed more than $80 million to Hillary’s foundation. Don’t you think that is why Comey did not recommend an indictment?

ANSWER: Yes, all those facts are true. However, Comey did not join the non-executive board of HSBC until 2013. Comey was ORDERED to provide a recommendation not to indict. I believe he aired all the evidence of why Hillary should should be indicted because he could not deliver a real recommendation after Lynch was caught meeting with Bill Clinton. Just because he was hired by HSBC as protection from prosecution, which is why they hire ex-prosecutors and politicians, does not mean anything directly. Their clients donated (or perhaps bribed) Hillary, but that does not provide a direct link to Comey. Yet, this does reflect how incestuous politics has become.

Is Front Running Now a Crime?

July 21, 2016

DOJ

The US Department of Justice has arrested Mark Johnson, who was the global head of foreign exchange trading at HSBC, and a former colleague, Stuart Scott. The two traders were accused by the US government of using inside information to profit from a $3.5bn currency deal. Of course, inside trading only is a crime in stocks — not commodities, futures, or currency. The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) accuses these traders of “front-running” and this has opened Pandora’s Box.

The implication of this new aggressive tactic means, in reality, that Goldman Sachs could be shutdown entirely along with probably every other cash market maker in New York City. Anyone who now looks at a client’s position and adjusts the prices or trades ahead of an order in anticipation is committing a crime according to this latest case’s allegations. This could be easily applied to any analyst who has positions in something and then tells people it will rise. Is that now front running? Is buying before you put out a recommendation front running? It may no longer be enough to say you have positions in that instrument. This too, under this new interpretation, would constitute front running, which they are calling a criminal act. Obviously, if you want to tell the world what to do, you better not have a trading account. These interpretations can change a lot.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice also filed lawsuits seeking to seize dozens of properties tied to Malaysian state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), saying that over $3.5 billion was misappropriated from the institution. The lawsuits, filed in Los Angeles, seek to seize assets “involved in and traceable to an international conspiracy to launder money misappropriated from 1MDB.” The alleged offences were committed over a four-year period and involved multiple individuals, including Malaysian officials and their associates, who conspired to fraudulently divert billions of dollars from 1MDB.

The Malaysian lawsuits did not name Prime Minister Najib Razak, but they did name his stepson Riza Aziz. They also named Malaysian financier Low Taek Jho and the Abu Dhabi government officials Khadem al-Qubaisi and Mohamed Ahmed Badawy Al-Husseiny.

The DOJ probably has no clue that Goldman Sachs is deeply involved in this fund. They will not like where the breadcrumbs might lead.
In both of these cases, there is a great departure of business as usual. You can bet that the NY bankers will be pouring money into Hillary’s campaign at this point and may even start going to church on Sundays.

Market Talk — July 20, 2016

July 20, 2016

Market-Talk
Japan finally saw a down day (-0.25%) that could be allocated to the individual performance of Nintendo shares, which declined over 12% today due to the delayed launch of the “Pokemon Go” app in Japan! However, the Hang Seng did return a nearly 1% gain today with Shanghai having a small loss, which was a result as it was down 1% intraday.

The UK released some better data (unemployment fell from 5% expected to 4.9% released). This helped both the stock market and also the currency to bounce. Meanwhile, the debate surrounding BREXIT continues with the new PM Theresa May still adamant that she will not invoke Article 50 until the end of the year. A good performance all around for Europe today with all core’s trading over 1% better with only the UK closing around 0.5% higher. S+P downgraded Turkey (from BB+ to BB), which resulted in the currency losing 1.25% to close record lows against the USD. Tomorrow should be an interesting day when the ECB addresses the market. No one is expecting a move in rates (futures pricing in an 11% chance they move) but the fun and games should be in the Q+A session 45 minutes after the announcement.

The US market has performed well all day and is one of the reasons we are seeing the sell-off in precious metals. Gold currently down around 1.4% and silver 2.7%. Many core stocks are making new highs as we see the DOW hit new intraday levels. All indices closed better but the NASDAQ was the star closing over 1% higher on the day.

Today was our day for stocks so we are awaiting Mr. Draghi to see if tomorrow is the day to concentrate on bonds. Today we saw another extremely poor auction for German 5’s (Obl’s) with not all bonds being sold. That was the reason given that 5’s underperformed the rest of the curve today. 2’s gained 1.5bp (-0.63%), 5’s 3.5bp (-0.5%), and 10’s +2bp (-0.01%). US bonds closed 1bp steeper (and wider) at 1.58%  with 2’s 0.71%. Italy closed 1.24%, Greece 7.76% (+5bp), Turkey 9.82% (+19bp), Portugal 3.04% (u/c), and Gilt 10yr at 0.83% (+3bp).

All eyes and ears on ECB Q+A session at 13:30 BST.

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