“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see that money is flowing to those who deal not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get rich more easily by graft than by work, and your laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you. . . you may know that your society is doomed.” 

“Atlas Shrugged” – Ayn Rand

• p. 413 ; Francisco d’Anconia to Bertram Scudder

The pension crisis set in motion by negative interest rates will be a major issue in the years ahead. Central banks have really screwed the entire social system and now everyone’s future is at risk. You cannot maintain negative to exceptionally low interest rates to help the bankers and claim it will ignite inflation and reverse the economy when you are wiping out the disposable income of the elderly. The elderly used to be the foundation of the economy for they always would spend when others feared to do so because they did not have to worry about future income.

Keeping interest rates this low is insane. Interest is the cost of money and takes into account the future expectation of inflation. The central bankers cannot inflate the economy when people simply hoard cash in fear of what lies ahead. This is why Trump and Sanders have done so well.

State pension funds, such as in Illinois, are bankrupting governments. One of the first lawsuits was filed by a private group alleging that their pension fund is underfunded and mismanaged as a result. Creating pension funds and then assuming the duty to manage them by a company is a lethal combination with negative interest rates. This will become a major crisis come next year. Trump better pray Hillary wins. The people will probably begin a revolution against her since she is owned by Goldman Sachs.

Nikkei cash opened today following the same trend from Friday’s late US futures session with cash down around 4%. This did ultimately produce the days low and we rallied from there in low volume but cash still closed 3.1% lower on the day. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia markets were also closed today.

Like Asia, Europe had its share of closed markets (UK, Ireland, Russia, Austria, Switzerland, Norway….) and therefore volumes around the world continued extremely light. We did see PMI releases where results were rather a mixed set of results. In Germany, we saw a marginally positive number whilst France slightly negative. Europe as a whole was 51.7 aided by Italy that released at 53.5 but either way it beat market consensus of 51.5. DAX and CAC finished the day better at +0.85% and +0.35%. This was a strong performance by the DAX considering we saw Deutsche Banks shares decline 2.7% after the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) claimed it has serious and systemic failings in it controls (according to the Financial Times). In Italy, we again saw weakness in some banks shares after Banca Popolare di Vicenea managed a take-up of only 7.7% of its additional share offering (Atlante – will take the balance). Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sienna fell 5.5% and Banca Popolare di Milano fell 6%. The FTSE MIB closed 0.98% lower on the day.

The DOW opened little changed but gradually made ground as the day wore-on. In light volume, we saw the closing up 0.5% whilst the broader S+P closed 0.8% higher. As we enter the new month most eyes will be on the first Friday economic data – US jobs release! Expected is a number around 200k (previous 215k) and a rate of 5%.

The USD continued to be the top discussion point this evening after a day when we saw the DXY close down -0.5% at 92.62. Big gains were seen in the Euro, AUD and Swedish Krona. Silver made an outside reversal to the downside closing below Friday’s low and both gold and silver made the new highs in May but could not hold on to the gains just yet despite the rally in the Euro. Both failed to exceed the 2015 high and gold was really knocking on heaven’s door topping at 1306 against a 2015 high of 1307.80.

Metals and Euro report are provided in the Private Investor Blog.

Treasuries saw selling today resulting in a curve steepening theme. The long end (10’s and 30’s) lost 3 and 4bp a piece whilst 2’s saw only a 1bp loss. 2’s closed 0.79% and 10’s at 1.86%. 2/10 curve closed +107bp. German 10’s closed 0.275% closing the US/Germany 10yr spread at +158.5bp.

Puerto Rico warned of more defaults after missing payment.

Private Blog Update for Metals Closing Today & the Euro

No, I did not attend this year’s correspondents dinner. I’ve been very busy programming. Nevertheless, Obama took a swipe at Trump as expected, but he also took a swipe at Hillary. “You’ve got to admit it though, Hillary trying to appeal to young voters is a little bit like your relative who just signed up for Facebook. ‘Dear America, did you get my poke? Is it appearing on your wall? I’m not sure I’m using this right. Love, Aunt Hillary.’ It’s not entirely persuasive.”

Then, in another swipe at Hillary, Obama finished by saying, “Here we are, my eighth and final appearance at this unique event and I am excited. If this material works well I’m going to use it at Goldman Sachs next year. Earn me some serious Tubmans.”

Claudius (Tiberius Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus; b. 10 BC – 54 AD; r. 41-54AD) was the first Roman emperor born outside of Italy. However, he was a member of the Julio-Claudian dynasty as the son of Drusus, who was the brother of Tiberius and Antonia. Antonia was the younger daughter of Marc Antony and Octavia, the sister of Augustus. Claudius was born at Lugdunum (Lyons) in Gaul, which at that time was part of the Roman Empire. Lugdunum was founded in 44 BC, ten years after the conquest of Gaul, in the aftermath of the assassination of Julius Caesar that erupted into civil war. According to the historian Cassius Dio, in 43 BC the Roman Senate ordered Munatius Plancus and Lepidus, governors of central and Transalpine Gaul respectively, to found a city for a group of Roman refugees who had been expelled from Vienne by the Allobroges. Cassius Dio says this was to keep them from joining Mark Antony and bringing their armies into the developing conflict.

Nevertheless, the first scandal to erupt that a member of the royal family was not a Roman citizen came just a few years later concerning the wife of Emperor Vespasian (69-79AD) by the name Domitilla who was born in Sabratha to Italian colonists who had moved there during the reign of Augustus. Her parents were Italian and not strictly Roman Latins, which presented a rather serious scandal as she was alleged to have been a barbarian born in a colony outside of the Roman Empire. Her father had to produce documentation to establish that she was a Roman citizen born prior to the family moving.

The first emperor born from a non-Latin (Rome) family was Trajan (98 – 117 AD) who was born in Italica, Spain, about the year 52 AD. His family was originally from Umbria in Italy, not Rome. He was considered a “provincial” who was born outside of Italy.

Numerous emperors followed who were born outside of Italy but to parents who were Latin. The first emperor to take the throne whose father was not Latin was ironically a Syrian. He is known to history as Philip I (“the Arab”; 244-249 AD).  From this point onward, the conquests of Rome dominated Rome itself. Roman citizenship was granted to everyone so they would be subject to Roman taxation. That was extended by Caracalla in 212 AD when he declared that all free men in the Roman Empire were to be given full Roman citizenship and all free women in the empire were given the same rights as Roman women. Previously, only inhabitants of Italia held full Roman citizenship. Colonies of Romans established in other provinces retained their full citizenship, which was the right to vote along with the obligation to pay taxes. Provincials, on the other hand, were usually non-citizens. Extending Roman citizenship expanded the tax base.

The idea of breeding out a conquered people originated with Alexander the Great who attempted to “mingle” his Greeks with the Persians, Egyptians, Syrians, and everyone else he conquered. This was his assimilation order whereby he believed that assimilation was to turn a defeated and potentially rebellious enemy into a citizen. The idea was this would be far better rather than simply waiting for the unavoidable revolt of a conquered people as was the case with Sparta and the conquered Helots. Rome adopted this philosophy, but eventually those they conquered bred out the Latins instead.

Looking at the Papacy, John Paul II was the first non-Italian pope since the Dutch Pope Adrian VI, who served from 1522 to 1523. Popes were traditionally Italian for about 400 years. However, the first non-Italian pope was considered an anti-pope because he was installed by the French King Philip IV who seized the Catholic Church and moved the seat to France to rob the treasury. He was behind the persecution of the Knights Templar to rob their wealth since France was broke and at war with Edward I of England. Obama’s father was from Kenya, and the controversy was over whether he was born in the USA or not.

There are those in the Middle East who are  deliberately looking at the “refugee” issue as the means to conquer Europe. They are preaching this very policy of assimilation to takeover Europe. Even Muslims I know within Europe are disturbed by all of the refugees entering for they are of a different mindset generally and lack skills to be economically beneficial to Europe moving forward. What is disturbing to me is that this may indeed be part of the catalyst which transforms Europe into a third-world country as the financial capital of the world moves to Asia.

We will provide the Video Update for the Metals Tomorrow (for those who took the Metals Report). The computer does a far better job than any individual can possibly do, including myself. The hope of this correction ending by March 2016 and a bull market beginning has not materialized once we obtained the Quarterly Bullish Reversal at year-end in gold and held our year-end number at 1044. The dollar has not cooperated in ending this trend and instead all we have been getting are reversals warning we may be dealing with an extension rather than a conclusion. It would be nice to be finished with this mess, but the markets always need to suck in the fools to create the false move in order to fuel its movement. The Reversals and the Timing reveal the trend. The fact that gold never elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal from the 1980 high during the 19 year decline is why the computer has always been projecting higher highs in the years ahead. Without electing Reversals through each level, then the trend does not change long-term in either direction.

The Yearly Global Market Watch, which is pattern recognition, has been on point and gold bottomed on the first Benchmark to the day in December. This model alone picked the 2011 high as a Major High and then 2015 as a temporary low calling for the bounce into 2016 which we have experienced. The mere fact that the computer can project a target in time years in advance and it unfolds on that day is interesting to say the least as it did with the Benchmarks was rather incredible. Such accomplishments are always ignored by those who do not want to believe. As Julius Caesar said, Men willingly believe what they wish. No amount of facts will ever change their mind so that is fantastic for we always need someone to trade against. Statistics show the vast majority of traders and investors lose money. They are the engine that fuel the market swings as they buy the highs assuming a breakout and sell the lows as they become pessimistic. Such events put flesh on the words, fools are easily separated from their money.

The timing models have been pointing to May 2016 ever since and we first elected a Quarter Buy Signal at the end of 2015. Since then gold has been electing various Weekly Bullish Reversals and as of Friday, it has elected its third Monthly Bullish Reversal. The hope of the global trend coming to an end here in 2016 has been negated by the immediate rally, but also evident by the prolonged trend for the Euro as well taking much longer to retest resistance. This too only prolongs the inevitable.

The way all the markets are situated globally, the overall trend may be extending this water-torture test to its extreme. Everything now will be determined if we exceed the 2015 highs in many markets or stop short there of once again. May is the turning point that warrants our attention around the world. The failure to break the 2015 highs in many markets during May will be a serious signal by itself. The rally will be over ONLY when we begin to elect Bearish Reversals. So stay on point and never been the fool who buys in anticipation of a new high. Always let the market prove itself for nobody can ever beat the markets. They alone are never wrong.

For the metals to actually enter a sustain bull market requires a collapse in public confidence. We can see this is starting to brew with Trump and Bernie attracting a lot of votes. That is the beginning of the trend which is necessary to reverse the entire landscape in the financial markets.

Tickets went on sale this weekend

Join us at the 2016 World Economic Conference at the Hilton Bonnet Creek in Orlando, Florida!

For the first time in Britain, the number one name given to boys upon birth was Muḥammad. This is how Rome died. The affluent typically see birth rates decline and immigrants fill the gap. Ancient Egyptians were a red race and always pictured themselves as a different color that was more similar to American Indians. They too were bred out of existence. In Mexico, if you talk to the Maya, they still hold that a Maya should marry only a Maya. They too are of the ancient breed where the men have no facial hair. Romans experienced the same crisis as true Latins were bred out into extinction. This is simply how history has always unfolded. White Europeans are rapidly becoming a minority in London and Paris. Will they exist at all in 100 years?