Private Blog Update for Metals Closing Today & the Euro

No, I did not attend this year’s correspondents dinner. I’ve been very busy programming. Nevertheless, Obama took a swipe at Trump as expected, but he also took a swipe at Hillary. “You’ve got to admit it though, Hillary trying to appeal to young voters is a little bit like your relative who just signed up for Facebook. ‘Dear America, did you get my poke? Is it appearing on your wall? I’m not sure I’m using this right. Love, Aunt Hillary.’ It’s not entirely persuasive.”

Then, in another swipe at Hillary, Obama finished by saying, “Here we are, my eighth and final appearance at this unique event and I am excited. If this material works well I’m going to use it at Goldman Sachs next year. Earn me some serious Tubmans.”

Claudius (Tiberius Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus; b. 10 BC – 54 AD; r. 41-54AD) was the first Roman emperor born outside of Italy. However, he was a member of the Julio-Claudian dynasty as the son of Drusus, who was the brother of Tiberius and Antonia. Antonia was the younger daughter of Marc Antony and Octavia, the sister of Augustus. Claudius was born at Lugdunum (Lyons) in Gaul, which at that time was part of the Roman Empire. Lugdunum was founded in 44 BC, ten years after the conquest of Gaul, in the aftermath of the assassination of Julius Caesar that erupted into civil war. According to the historian Cassius Dio, in 43 BC the Roman Senate ordered Munatius Plancus and Lepidus, governors of central and Transalpine Gaul respectively, to found a city for a group of Roman refugees who had been expelled from Vienne by the Allobroges. Cassius Dio says this was to keep them from joining Mark Antony and bringing their armies into the developing conflict.

Nevertheless, the first scandal to erupt that a member of the royal family was not a Roman citizen came just a few years later concerning the wife of Emperor Vespasian (69-79AD) by the name Domitilla who was born in Sabratha to Italian colonists who had moved there during the reign of Augustus. Her parents were Italian and not strictly Roman Latins, which presented a rather serious scandal as she was alleged to have been a barbarian born in a colony outside of the Roman Empire. Her father had to produce documentation to establish that she was a Roman citizen born prior to the family moving.

The first emperor born from a non-Latin (Rome) family was Trajan (98 – 117 AD) who was born in Italica, Spain, about the year 52 AD. His family was originally from Umbria in Italy, not Rome. He was considered a “provincial” who was born outside of Italy.

Numerous emperors followed who were born outside of Italy but to parents who were Latin. The first emperor to take the throne whose father was not Latin was ironically a Syrian. He is known to history as Philip I (“the Arab”; 244-249 AD).  From this point onward, the conquests of Rome dominated Rome itself. Roman citizenship was granted to everyone so they would be subject to Roman taxation. That was extended by Caracalla in 212 AD when he declared that all free men in the Roman Empire were to be given full Roman citizenship and all free women in the empire were given the same rights as Roman women. Previously, only inhabitants of Italia held full Roman citizenship. Colonies of Romans established in other provinces retained their full citizenship, which was the right to vote along with the obligation to pay taxes. Provincials, on the other hand, were usually non-citizens. Extending Roman citizenship expanded the tax base.

The idea of breeding out a conquered people originated with Alexander the Great who attempted to “mingle” his Greeks with the Persians, Egyptians, Syrians, and everyone else he conquered. This was his assimilation order whereby he believed that assimilation was to turn a defeated and potentially rebellious enemy into a citizen. The idea was this would be far better rather than simply waiting for the unavoidable revolt of a conquered people as was the case with Sparta and the conquered Helots. Rome adopted this philosophy, but eventually those they conquered bred out the Latins instead.

Looking at the Papacy, John Paul II was the first non-Italian pope since the Dutch Pope Adrian VI, who served from 1522 to 1523. Popes were traditionally Italian for about 400 years. However, the first non-Italian pope was considered an anti-pope because he was installed by the French King Philip IV who seized the Catholic Church and moved the seat to France to rob the treasury. He was behind the persecution of the Knights Templar to rob their wealth since France was broke and at war with Edward I of England. Obama’s father was from Kenya, and the controversy was over whether he was born in the USA or not.

There are those in the Middle East who are  deliberately looking at the “refugee” issue as the means to conquer Europe. They are preaching this very policy of assimilation to takeover Europe. Even Muslims I know within Europe are disturbed by all of the refugees entering for they are of a different mindset generally and lack skills to be economically beneficial to Europe moving forward. What is disturbing to me is that this may indeed be part of the catalyst which transforms Europe into a third-world country as the financial capital of the world moves to Asia.

We will provide the Video Update for the Metals Tomorrow (for those who took the Metals Report). The computer does a far better job than any individual can possibly do, including myself. The hope of this correction ending by March 2016 and a bull market beginning has not materialized once we obtained the Quarterly Bullish Reversal at year-end in gold and held our year-end number at 1044. The dollar has not cooperated in ending this trend and instead all we have been getting are reversals warning we may be dealing with an extension rather than a conclusion. It would be nice to be finished with this mess, but the markets always need to suck in the fools to create the false move in order to fuel its movement. The Reversals and the Timing reveal the trend. The fact that gold never elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal from the 1980 high during the 19 year decline is why the computer has always been projecting higher highs in the years ahead. Without electing Reversals through each level, then the trend does not change long-term in either direction.

The Yearly Global Market Watch, which is pattern recognition, has been on point and gold bottomed on the first Benchmark to the day in December. This model alone picked the 2011 high as a Major High and then 2015 as a temporary low calling for the bounce into 2016 which we have experienced. The mere fact that the computer can project a target in time years in advance and it unfolds on that day is interesting to say the least as it did with the Benchmarks was rather incredible. Such accomplishments are always ignored by those who do not want to believe. As Julius Caesar said, Men willingly believe what they wish. No amount of facts will ever change their mind so that is fantastic for we always need someone to trade against. Statistics show the vast majority of traders and investors lose money. They are the engine that fuel the market swings as they buy the highs assuming a breakout and sell the lows as they become pessimistic. Such events put flesh on the words, fools are easily separated from their money.

The timing models have been pointing to May 2016 ever since and we first elected a Quarter Buy Signal at the end of 2015. Since then gold has been electing various Weekly Bullish Reversals and as of Friday, it has elected its third Monthly Bullish Reversal. The hope of the global trend coming to an end here in 2016 has been negated by the immediate rally, but also evident by the prolonged trend for the Euro as well taking much longer to retest resistance. This too only prolongs the inevitable.

The way all the markets are situated globally, the overall trend may be extending this water-torture test to its extreme. Everything now will be determined if we exceed the 2015 highs in many markets or stop short there of once again. May is the turning point that warrants our attention around the world. The failure to break the 2015 highs in many markets during May will be a serious signal by itself. The rally will be over ONLY when we begin to elect Bearish Reversals. So stay on point and never been the fool who buys in anticipation of a new high. Always let the market prove itself for nobody can ever beat the markets. They alone are never wrong.

For the metals to actually enter a sustain bull market requires a collapse in public confidence. We can see this is starting to brew with Trump and Bernie attracting a lot of votes. That is the beginning of the trend which is necessary to reverse the entire landscape in the financial markets.

Tickets went on sale this weekend

Join us at the 2016 World Economic Conference at the Hilton Bonnet Creek in Orlando, Florida!

For the first time in Britain, the number one name given to boys upon birth was Muḥammad. This is how Rome died. The affluent typically see birth rates decline and immigrants fill the gap. Ancient Egyptians were a red race and always pictured themselves as a different color that was more similar to American Indians. They too were bred out of existence. In Mexico, if you talk to the Maya, they still hold that a Maya should marry only a Maya. They too are of the ancient breed where the men have no facial hair. Romans experienced the same crisis as true Latins were bred out into extinction. This is simply how history has always unfolded. White Europeans are rapidly becoming a minority in London and Paris. Will they exist at all in 100 years?

There is serious trouble brewing in Saudi Arabia. They have been dumping oil and increasing their output by 3.5%. However, the cash is being kept offshore. Rumors have been in flight that members of the royal family may be creating a stash just in case there is major civil unrest that forces them to flee into exile. During his recent trip, Obama told the Saudis they should adopt democratic reform. Make no mistake about it. There is trouble brewing in the Middle East. There is no way Obama would have made such a statement publicly if the situation were not grave.

May, August, and October are highlighted as key periods ahead.

QUESTION:

Hi Marty!

I am reading and studying your blogs and Socrates for quite some time and I would really like to thank you for all the insights!

Some days I listen to bloomberg radio for knowing what ‘they’ are saying about the market developments. As I am not an experienced trader as you are, I must admit I don’t understand the ‘collective market behaviours’ e.g. besides all the traps the central banks got themselves into, my normal logical mind tells me that whenever interest rates rise, money gets more expensive, so consequently the only true reason for doing so would be that underlying economic data shows the economy is doing well and can do without ‘help’.

A simple mind like I am tells me that a stock index should rise in case of a well doing economy. Instead I only hear markets fear a interest rate hike. Seems to me that the collective wants interest rates remain low, so stockindex growth driven higher by debt.

The same for example in the case of oil. With my simple mind global economies aren’t as healthy as the financial markets might imply. So in short lower demand and risk of even demand lowering. Instead of a lower price eg. crude oil futures, the futures contract keeps on rising. I am wondering what the fundamentals are that drive up these prices?

Could you give some insights on the real fundamentals that drive markets as from a real- economic perspective I can’t figure it out!

Thnx Marty!

R

ANSWER: The fundamentals flipped after the shift from a private to public wave following 1929. Under the pre-1929 economics of laissez-faire, the government did not attempt to manipulate society with monetary policy. They attempted to lower U.S. interest rates to deflect capital inflows back to Europe, but they did not practice manipulating interest rates domestically to try to manage the economy. Therefore, raising interest rates before 1929 was often seen as bullish because it showed there was a demand for borrowing money due to economic expansion.

Today, the fundamentals are interpreted through the eyes of Marxism. Raising interest rates is now considered a punishment to society intended to deter them from borrowing. Yet, deflation involves declining interest rates due to the lack of interest to borrow. Some say that higher rates are bad for stocks, but they are solely looking at it as a punitive measure that will cost people more to borrow. You even have people cheering gold with lower interest rates.

None of this makes any sense economically. Nonetheless, we are looking at a sharp rise in stocks and gold along with rising interest rates, which will confuse everyone. Interest rates are the manifestation of expected inflation. If you think inflation will be 10%, you will lose money if you lend it at 5%. Interest rates are the price of expected inflation alongside the perceived risk.

Therefore, everything will take off to the upside and the majority, whom will be following the Marxist version of fundamentals, will feed the rally because they will be short. This view of fundamentals will eventually flip back, but only when the public at large sees this flip and goes with it. That is the point of no return where confidence in government collapses.

I should point out that these fundamentals tend to apply only to the investing class. I remember 1981 when interest rates reached their peak. My mother and her sister went out and bought bank CDs at 20% for 10 years. They did not ask me. They made the decision on their own and said they would never see that much interest again. They are countless others changes the trend and made that peak in the Public Wave 1981.35. This class of people act out of common sense and do not listen to the fundamentals applied in the investing class. This is the real group of people who are the movers & shakers. The rest of us are trying to figure out what they are doing. Keep in mind that within the investing class, they always try to assign some fundamental to explain something. Everyone wants to know WHY. I named by debut report on the ECM back in 1979 – “WHY”.

Take gold for example. How long have they been saying the dollar is fiat yet gold has not advanced to the same degree as the Dow since 1970. It is one of those fundamentals they always throw at you which become sophistry. Sounds logical and they mix in Germany with wheelbarrows of money, but omit the fact it was a Communist Revolution in 1918 where Germany invited Russia to come take their country wanting to join the Russian Revolution of 1917. Who would keep money in a bank under such conditions?  There was a collapse in confidence.

We will do a brief video update tomorrow on the general state of the markets given we have elected Monthly Bullish Reversals in several currencies. While we have been looking for the euro to reach 116, we have now clearly extended the sideways rally given that the major low for last year took place in March 2015. May has been the main target in time on our arrays for a long time. It appears we should press higher into May (dollar decline). There is a potential that exceeding the 117 level could spark a rally up to the 125 level. This is rather serious for last year’s high was 12109; exceeding that high intraday would make 2016 a REACTION HIGH since we did not make a new low this year.

The yearly array in the euro warns that the turning points are 2016 and 2018 followed then by 2022. Additionally, 2016 is a PANIC CYCLE YEAR and we have not seen anything unfold with volatility just yet. We have the BREXIT vote in June. A failure for Britain to exit would perhaps create that last rally of euphoria that the euro will survive. Nevertheless, the fundamentals that hit in 2017 globally warn that the trend thereafter does not look very bright.

Such a move in the euro to exceed last year’s high would most likely result in a tremendous setup for a FALSE MOVE and the slingshot we see that appears to be unfolding from next year onward. Everything from oil, turmoil in Saudi Arabia, commodities (including metals) to stocks, bonds, and currencies, are all warning that we will see the crazy times ahead in trading where most will lose everything.